November 27, 2006

MNF Week XII

Quickly. Green Bay at Seattle. Green Bay sucks hard. Ten point underdogs. I followed a pattern last time, which proved true. However, if I follow it again, the chart would tell me that GB wins, and I lose if I bet for GB. They being 10 point underdogs, the pattern breaks down. It's illogical because it tells me I must bet against GB in order to win, but there's no way I can win by betting against them if they win as underdogs. Understand? Therefore, I will assume that the pattern of WLWLWL for GB's last six MNF appearances will be broken tonight (a logical assumption, since they suck hard, see above), and take Seattle minus the points, and see what happens.

Update: A push! Ha-ha, a muthafucken PUSH!

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November 19, 2006

Who Gets To Go To Glendale

I'm very disappointed that the Bears will not be going to the Rose Bowl. A few close calls going the other way, and they might have beaten USC, but it was not to be. Despite Cal's explosive offense, and a defense that kept them in the contest until late, USC clearly has the better all around game.

I also watched the slugfest between Ohio State and Michigan, one of the best games of this college football season. Michigan stayed in range, but they never could get over the top. And afterwards, the announcers debated whether there should be a rematch in Glendale for the National Championship.

Some good arguments can be made for Michigan being the second best team in the country, but I don't want to see a rematch. I saw no fear yesterday on the part of the Buckeyes. I honestly think the team that plays OSU should be a team that makes them a little bit scared. I don't know if USC is that team, but if they beat ND and UCLA, I want to see that matchup.

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November 13, 2006

MNF Pick, Week X

Tonight we have Tampa Bay at Carolina. Tampa Bay's record is 2 and 6. Carolina is 4 and 4. Ho-hum. I don't even plan to watch the game. I got a lot of DVR to catch up on.

The Panthers are heavy favorites, at 10 points across the board. Ninety-three percent of Yahoo! Pick'em users think Carolina will win. As always, the question is will they cover.

Note this information from ESPN's preview:

Carolina has held a fourth-quarter lead in seven games, and lost three of them. Overall, the Panthers have been outscored 104-42 in second halves and 77-30 in fourth quarters.

Said Smith after the loss to Dallas, "When we get up 14 points, sometimes we act like it's a hundred points."

This game is a great opportunity for the Bucs to improve their record. I'm still waiting to see last year's defense emerge. Tampa Bay has been a horrible first half team, and Carolina is a horrible second half team. I think it evens out, with Carolina winning, but not covering the spread. Last time these two teams met, seven weeks ago, Carolina won by two points.

Therefore, take Tampa Bay plus the ten points.

Update: Thanks Ronde. Way to cover your man. Grrrr.

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November 06, 2006

MNF Pick, Week IX

Tonight's game pits sucky Seattle against sucky Oakland. The big question at Qwest Field is who will be suckier. NFC champ Seattle at least has a good excuse: they're missing two great players, Shaun Alexander and Matt Hasselbeck. Bad as Seattle has been playing, they're still number one in the NFC West. Oakland used to be a sure thing on Monday Night, but if they lose this week it will be their fifth consecutive MNF loss. Oakland is currently on a two game winning streak, but it's been four years since they've won three in a row. Plus Art Shell is completely hapless as a coach.

Let's look at Oakland's last two games. They beat the Cardinals, a semi-pro team from somewhere around Phoenix. And last week they managed to beat a sloppy Steelers team, despite moving the ball only 98 yards the whole game! The Raiders' third-string QB, Andrew Walter has thrown nine interceptions and been sacked 28 times since he took over for Aaron Brooks. Last week he threw for 51 yards. This is not only one of the worst Raider teams ever, it's probably one of the worst NFL teams ever.

So, the Seahawks are going to win, but will they cover? They're favored by 7½. I think the smart money is going with Seattle to cover the spread, and that's what I recommend too.

Result: No surprise, the Raiders not only suck, they don't care that they suck. I however, am now 6 and 3!

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