October 31, 2004
Two Days Left
Yesterday i posted about al Qaqaa, one of three major issues that have been monopolizing the news during this last week before the election. The second major issue is bin Laden's videotaped message to America, and the third is the apparent "dead heat" as shown by the polls. Here's my take on issue number two.
Syphilitic Camel Monkey's Message To America
i think this latest video by Osama bin Laden is very unusual. As far as i know this is the first time he has directed an entire message to the American people. i've heard a lot of analysis about what exactly he was trying to accomplish, and i disagree with pretty much all that i've heard.
The radio and TV pundits i've heard seem to have missed two important points that are obvious to me. One, why did bin Laden send a videotaped message instead of attacking? To me, this was very much out of character for al Qaeda. Although there are still two days left (and i hope i'm not proven wrong), it seems logical to me that bin Laden chose to send a video message because he was unable to attack us.
If that's true, all the credit goes to our law enforcement, intelligence and military communities. i think the War on Terror, as it has been prosecuted so far, has done so much damage to al Qaeda that they simply have not been able to do to us what they did to Spain. i've no doubt that al Qaeda wanted to attack us before our election. Nor do i doubt that they misunderstand Americans so much that they probably thought an attack might achieve the same outcome. But instead we got this message from OBL.
The other thing the pundits seem to have misinterpreted is the intent of bin Laden's message. Most pundits insist on analyzing the message through the prism of this question: "Will the bin Laden video help George Bush or will it help John Kerry?" The question misses the point completely because it assumes that bin Laden has a preference for one candidate over the other. And here i will probably be departing from the Republican party line, but i don't think bin Laden gives a rat's ass who wins.
He said so himself:
Your security is not in the hands of Kerry or Bush or al Qaeda.
Why would bin Laden say this if he wanted Kerry to win, as the right argues, or if he wanted Bush to win, as the left contends? i don't believe bin Laden has a preference, but he wants whoever wins to know where
he stands. He will continue to try to kill Americans as long as we don't do as he says. The final line is the key:
Your security is in your own hands, and each state that does not harm our security will remain safe.
George Bush is a known quantity to Osama bin Laden. If Bush is re-elected, bin Laden wants us to know that we should expect continued belligerence from al Qaeda. But bin Laden is also under the impression that much of this country is ready to reject Bush because people believe that a more dovish Kerry administration will make us more secure.* OBL's message is intended to remind those voters, and Kerry too, that rejecting Bush is not enough to keep us safe. In other words "dovishness" means nothing to OBL unless we do exactly as he says. Translated into plain language, bin Laden is saying:
If you people think you will be safer under a Kerry administration than with Bush, think again. The only thing that will keep you safe is for your leader, whoever he is, to do as I say.
That being, as i understand it, for America to 1) get out of every Islamic nation, and 2) abandon Israel to the wolves.
If Kerry wins, the world might see America withdraw from Iraq sooner than otherwise. And some have surmised that Kerry would indeed be less supportive of Israel, not because of al Qaeda, but to placate the Europeans and the U.N. But whatever happens, OBL probably won't be around to watch. Because much as i dislike Kerry, i'm still pretty certain that even with his "more sensitive" War on Terror, that Syphilitic Camel Monkey is gonna be toast.
(But Kerry's not going to win. And you'll see how confident i am about that tomorrow when i discuss issue number three: the polls.)
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* If OBL really thinks John Kerry won't go after al Qaeda, he's mistaken. Although his national security policy is weak, misguided and wrong for America, Kerry is not dovish on getting OBL. But since so many of Kerry's supporters are hate-America cut-and-run wackos, it's easy to see where OBL might get that impression.
Posted by: annika at
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Annika,
two quick things.
1. It was Chainee who first used the word sensitive with regard to prosecuting the war on terror.
2. Your jump from knowing OBL "wanted to attack us before the election" to "was unable to attack" to "it must be law enforcement" is a typical RW syllogism.
No support. just a dangerous wish.
Posted by: mike at November 01, 2004 07:23 AM (0ZdtC)
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Well, Mike, don't you think that OBL and AQ wanted to attack us at least once in the last 4 years? Or did you forget about Richard Reid, and Moussouai, and the intel from bin Alsheeb and Khalid Sheik Mohammad.
Anyway, I do think the message is a sign of weakness for other reasons, not least that the threats of violence are now more conditional than they were in the past.
My blog has a little thing on this too.
Posted by: Roach at November 01, 2004 10:06 AM (DHoAQ)
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Annika:
Americans are not the main target of this strategic communications effort, but the rest of the Arab/Muslim world. We are too quick to analyze things through our perspective - how he's trying to affect our elections.
We are directly involved in the Iraq War and the Afghan War. The Arab and Islamic worlds see us as a cobelligerent with Israel in the Israeli and Palestinian conflict. Finally, we are involved in a struggle with Islamic extremists and terrorists of which Al Qaeda is only one element - one whose status has been falling. Post 9/11, OBL was the leading figure to reestablish the caliphate; now, given the rise of others such as Al-Zarkawi and Sunni insurgents in Iraq, he's fallen from that perch. Playing to the American audience, especially right before the election, is a certain way to get massive publicity (for cheap!) and reestablish his place in the "struggle." Give him credit, when else has an outside individual been able to weigh in so overtly and arrogantly into our elections?
If you have spent some time in Arab countries, you know that Arab males, in general, make considerable efforts to enhance their own individual dignity. The status of many Arabs and preserving "face" is dependent upon the image they uphold in public. The public image is not necessarily the "facts"; facts are what you see, what you experience, what you want to see.
Dwell not upon thy weariness, thy strength shall be according to the measure of thy desire."
Arabic proverb
Posted by: Col Steve at November 01, 2004 12:12 PM (DmFF+)
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Roach,
"I don't know" is all I can say with assurity regarding what was on their mind(s). Anybody who says differently is guessing in the direction that serves their agenda.
IMHO, if they wanted to cause some election day mayhem they could have without streching. This morning I was crossing the Brooklyn Bridge to enter Manhattan and found my self traveling behind a 12' Ford cube truck. Trucks are not allowed on this bridge. Police are stationed at both ends. You tell me if this is reflective of tight security.
If OBL had called two Islamic martyrs in Paterson NJ and told them to cook up some pre election mayhem in NYC nothing on earth would have been able to stop them. They could do something as simple as buy a box of baking soda, put a couple of spoonfulls in 100 envelopes, write ANTHRAX in arabic on the out side and start riding subways leaving them behind at each stop. By Monday evening, Tuesday voting would be in jeopardy in NYC.
You are never going to convince me that Annika's fallacious logic is a substitute for truth. It is however, a fine rendering of the mind set that has, as I have stated before, traded intellect for fear.
Posted by: mike at November 01, 2004 12:18 PM (0ZdtC)
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You are baiting me Mike. Don't make me school you on logic. i know what a
post hoc argument is, that's why i said "if." Although it is a favorite tactic of knee-jerk liberals, pointing out logical fallacies is not a substitute for proof.
Posted by: annika at November 01, 2004 01:35 PM (zAOEU)
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Annika,
I see only one 'IF". I see plenty of "i have no doubt" and "nor do I doubt" All sounds pretty emphatic to me. All seems pretty much unprovable. Unless you feel you have proved that he did not attack. Logic is no substitute for truth.
I think he did not want to attack us and may or may not have been able to.
I do, however, think that you are right when you say he does not care who wins.
If he wanted either man to win he could have said many things that would have resulted in a voter shift. He did not.
I am as confident that Kerry will win as you are that the dullard will. What odds are you giving?
Posted by: mike at November 01, 2004 02:13 PM (0ZdtC)
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Don't move the goalposts, Mike. You accused me of asserting that the reason we haven't been attacked yet is "law enforcement." That's where my qualifier "if" comes in. Of course i know i can't prove that law enforcement is the reason we haven't been attacked. But it's a reasonable assumption to make.
If i believe that theory A explains fact B, a counter argument that theory A does not prove fact B (which i concede) does not prove that theory A is incorrect. Nor does that counter-argument prove that theory C is correct.
No one knows why we haven't been attacked yet. You say, somewhat contradictorily, that it's because "he did not want to attack us and may or may not have been able to." What is your evidence for that position? The argument that OBL wants to attack us is well supported by his statements to that effect, and in the historical record.
As to my wager, put your blog up against mine. Oh that's right, trolls never have blogs. i wonder why that is.
Posted by: annika at November 01, 2004 02:37 PM (zAOEU)
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I wonder too! I guess the intrinsic value of running (or does one own), a blog has escaped me. I have simply answered your public request for comments and for that selfless act I get plastered with a derogatory label! (Although Shreck has taken some of the sting out ?) Shall I only comment to blog owners who share my point of view? What other like asset can I put up against the value of your blog? I look to you for guidance.
Posted by: mike at November 02, 2004 08:38 AM (0ZdtC)
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"Shall I only comment to blog owners who share my point of view?"
Mike, there's no need to go elsewhere. i'd rather you stay here and share
my point of view. lol.
Posted by: annika at November 02, 2004 02:11 PM (zAOEU)
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October 30, 2004
Three Days Left And That's All They Got?
Three days left before the election, and i'm tired of all the nonsense. There are three huge stories that i have been too busy to comment on until now. Here's my take on one of them:
Al Ca-ca:
Who knows whether the explosives were there or not? i do know that the mainstream media and Kerry rushed to judgment on this story, when the facts were still hotly disputed. What do you expect? Kerry's losing, and the liberals are desperate for some kind of last minute surprise scandal that will keep them within the "cheater's margin" in a couple of battleground states.
Assuming the truth of the charge - that the explosives were there after our troops arrived and we somehow allowed them to be spirited away under our noses - i don't see that as the huge scandal the left seems to think it is. It's certainly not a reason to reject George Bush this Tuesday.
Mistakes happen in war. Nobody who's not been on the ground during offensive combat - least of all those effete nattering nabobs of negativity, the reporters - can truly understand what is called "the fog of war." Hell, i certainly don't. i only know it exists, and that's only from seven years of studying history and a lifetime of reading books and watching war movies.
In war, especially during fast moving offensive operations, there are no time outs. Not everything that you'd want to get done, actually gets done. Kerry ought to know this, since he's such a big military man. i'm not saying i believe the charges, i actually don't. Today's U.S. armed forces are the most professional in the history of the world. But even if the story were true, Kerry's criticism of George Bush for not sufficiently micromanaging this war makes me worry more about what he'd do at the reins.
Civil war example: Abraham Lincoln's military expertise was negligible when he took office. He was president during our worst war, our biggest crisis, when the actual existence of our country hung in the balance. Lincoln made plenty of mistakes as a wartime commander-in-chief. i can name a dozen off the top of my head. If John Kerry had been around back then, i can imagine the rhetoric:
Lincoln rushed to war without a plan for reconstruction!
He ignored the advice of General McClellan who said we needed more troops!*
He failed to provide the troops with the latest quick firing weapons!
He allowed General Lee to join the secession, and then he let General Lee escape when we had him in our grasp at Malvern Hill!
i could go on, but others have made the Civil War analogy before, so you get the idea.
The bottom line is that Lincoln won the war, and despite all the criticism leveled at him during the war, he's now widely considered our greatest president. And my point is, that like FDR and both George Bushs, Lincoln was a great wartime president because he did not micromanage the war.
By contrast, Confederate President Jefferson Davis was proud of his military background. After graduating from West Point, he served as a lieutenant in the cavalry with a modest record. After a short retirement and marriage,** Davis fought in the Mexican War where he was wounded and returned home as a hero. Later he served in the U.S. Senate*** and as Secretary of War.
Yet despite his military training and expertise, and arguably because of it, Jefferson Davis was a horrible wartime president. His micromanagement of the war cost the Confederacy too many brave and valuable soldiers, ensuring their defeat. Davis often rejected the advice of his generals, believing that his military background made him their equal. And his insistence on offensive Napoleonic tactics at a time when the rifle had made those tactics obsolete, increased casualties and lost the war for the South. Not that that's a bad thing mind you, but it's absolutely true.****
Back to our day. Kerry criticizes our President for not making sure that some bunkers on the tip of the spear were not secured and placed under guard as soon as we got there? Would Kerry have ordered that all offensive operations proceed only after every "i" was dotted and "t" crossed? i remember the ruckus in the media after the so-called "operational pause." You'd think we had lost the war, the way the media carried on about that. How many more "operational pauses" would there have been under a Kerry presidency?
Oh, that's right, none. Because it was the wrong war, wrong place, wrong time. Kerry would rather have left Saddam in control over all his explosives.
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* McClellan, the only general i know of who managed to lose consistently when his force outnumbered the enemy's by almost two to one.
** Like Kerry, ambition might have led Jefferson Davis to marry "up." His first wife was the daughter of President Zachary Taylor.
*** Interestingly, Jefferson Davis was a Senator before he became a traitor, while John Kerry did it the other way around.
**** For more on how Davis's micromanagement of the war lost it for the South, i highly recommend this book.
Posted by: annika at
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Excellent points, Annie. I've been trying to explain this line of argument to a variety people since the story broke, with very limited success. Those who want to see this story as indicative of some broader failure of strategic thinking -- assuming it's true in the first place -- will continue to do so; logic has nothing to do with it. But it's good that you put it out there; with luck, it might persuade some of the very few people whose minds are open on the subject.
Posted by: Matt at October 30, 2004 12:55 PM (eWM9Y)
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I suspect that most of the people who attack Bush for "inadequate planning," etc, are people who work in what are essentially "staff positions," in which they analyze, advise, pontificate, etc, but never have final responsibility for making decisions or getting things accomplished. I've got a post on this topic at:
http://photoncourier.blogspot.com/2004_10_01_photoncourier_archive.html#109863391205599410
Posted by: David Foster at October 30, 2004 04:17 PM (XUtCY)
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Well, I'm persuaded. 700 k lbs of explosives couldn't matter a wit to the BIG picture. It takes twice that amount to destroy a Humvee IÂ’ve been told. And I'm sure our troops, as Rudy G. said, are to blame, not the president, who shouldn't be micro managing the forces on the ground anyway. George understands that from his extensive reading about the civil war and the failure of Jefferson Davis. But maybe he sought advice from the weapons maven Conidium Rice; she has consistently shown great acumen when analyzing weapons systems, and she told him that these bunkers contained boxes that could only be used to hold pirate booty. She knew this how? Well, when she was writing her dissertation in the Hermitage reading room, she sat on a very similar box with the Cyrillic for Pyrite on the side. I sure would have believed her, sheÂ’s so smart!
Out troops had encountered such crack Iraqi troops fighting trench and ditch to protect their country that had the spear veered more than a few feet or paused more than a few minutes, the strategic advantage would have been lost and our troops would have found themselves wading in the Red Sea and the stars and bars would have been flapping in the breeze.
Good thing they secured NOTHING on the way to Bagdad, it could have been a debacle otherwise.
Annika, your comparison of GB to Lincoln and Roosevelt is astonishing in its intellectual dishonesty. Those two men were educated, could read and write, make complete thoughts of longer than one sentence, etc. (well the up side is that no marble will be wasted building the GB library) To say they were great presidents because they won the war(s) by refusing to micro-manage is just simplistic drivel. GB couldnÂ’t micro manage taking a crap. He is dim, distant, disconnected and completely at the mercy of his advisors who DO have an agenda and it stinks. Not to mention that itÂ’s implementation is inept and shoddy and has resulted in the death of over a thousand brave young and not so young Americans who are indeed fighting the wrong war. Other presidents, other generals could have accomplished this occupation without the great loss of life by simply listening to those that did give this administration the proper advice. Fatal arrogance and hubris is the unending sin of these fools.
Whether Saddam is in power or not is irrelevant. DID NOT MATTER. Was a bullshit story that you and so many others have swallowed50 million American have traded their intellect and freedom for a bucket of fear. I would restore Saddam to power in an instant if it would bring back the 1000 Americans who have died.
GB will be defeated and America will be restored. The Middle East will continue to muddle along. Democracy will not, in our lifetimes take hold in the region. They are simply not as interested in Democracy as they are in other ways to run their lives. Religious dogma, corrupt business practices, a basic belief in the inferiority of women, a distain for Americas sexual liberation and a powerful fear it is headed their way. They do hate our freedom, just not the ones GB thinks
Posted by: mike at October 30, 2004 05:10 PM (0ZdtC)
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In defense of McClellan, or at least of those who kept telling Lincoln that he was the best general in the North: McClellan was excellent at defense, and at training troops and at pulling a defeated army back together after some belligerent moron had nearkly wrecked it. No one could have done better at turning back Lee's first incursion into the North. He didn't dither while trying to count the enemy, instead he threw out the best defense he could muster, and it was more than good enough.
But many other generals would have pursued Lee's army beyond Antietam. McClellan energetically saw the rebels off, and then turned back into a ditherer as soon as they were gone from Northern territory. He had to collect intelligence reports and plan the campaign in detail - and somehow he always concluded from the intelligence reports that the opposing forces were three times the size they actually were. This is how he managed to be defeated again and again by an army half the size - he thought they were stronger, would advance against them only if directly ordered to, and then would move very cautiously and be well-prepared for a retreat when Lee counterattacked.
McClellan's heart just wasn't in the war. He would have been happy with a stalemate leading to an eventual recognition of Southern independence. On the other side, Lee felt duty-bound to side with his state, although he thought the war was unwinnable (Lee was a good military engineer, so he could do the math), and wasn't proud of killing men to defend slavery. Left up to the two of them, the war would have been a bloodless stalemate.
But finally, Lincoln found two competent generals, Grant and Sherman, who understood that the North would win by a war of attrition, and were committed enough and bloody-minded enough to kill as many men as necessary. They weren't military geniuses or anywhere near the intellectual equals of Lee and McClellan, but they could deploy troops so they wouldn't be driven back by inferior forces, and they understood that trading 30,000 Union troops for 20,000 Confederates was a win for the Union - because their lost men would be replaced, while the Confederates could hardly even replace the shoes that were worn out when their troops marched to battle. They understood that getting outflanked (the Battle of the Wilderness), or even getting cut off from home completely (Sherman's march to the sea) wasn't a disaster if the opposing forces weren't strong enough to take advantage of it. And finally, Grant was very persistent as long as the plan could be made to work(Vicksburg), but when it
really went haywire he could change plans instantly (Cold Harbor).
Posted by: markm at October 30, 2004 05:14 PM (5nK/L)
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Great line from Lincoln, to McClellan: "If you're not using the army, I'd like to borrow it for a while."
For whatever reason, though, the man did seem to have the affection of his troops.
Posted by: David Foster at October 30, 2004 05:19 PM (XUtCY)
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Yep, that's all they've got, as our friend mike here has demonstrated. They've tried everything else, and I do mean
everything.
Posted by: Pixy Misa at October 30, 2004 11:35 PM (+S1Ft)
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"I would restore Saddam to power in an instant if it would bring back the 1000 Americans who have died."
what a fucking idiotic statement.
Posted by: scof at October 31, 2004 12:40 AM (Oo2Oh)
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Miss Annika,
Davis a traitor? Surely, surely you mis-spoke. Davis had many faults, but disloyalty was not one of them.
To break it down for you: the Confederacy was comprised of states that left the union. Left. Not as in the way California leans politically, but left as in removed themselves. Quit. Gone. Bye-bye. I know of nothing Davis did before secession that would have warranted such a slanderous accusation. After secession he was no longer obligated to allegiance to the union. During the War of Northern Aggression he was not engaging in treason or traitorous activity, he was simply trying to defend his country.
And as for the South losing said war not being a bad thing - I disagree. Because of Lincoln's victory over the South & the Constitution he started the snowball which that other usurping bastard FDR picked up & turned our limited government into one limited only by the ambition of our politicians.
As for McClellan's losing record, methinks you don't give enough credit to Lee. One of his many upstanding qualities was that he was a brilliant military strategust. Not perfect, but better than anyone that imperialist bastard had under him. Think of him as eloquence to Grant & Sherman's barbarity.
But again I must protest the accusation that Davis was a traitor. Pick on Kerry all you wish (or all you have time for - there's a lot to pick on) but I'd ask you reconsider your unkind words about the last group of people to fight for their independence on American soil.
Mike,
I'm no fan of Bush, but saying that he is inferior to that usurping bastard & his ancestor in spirit (Lincoln & FDR, disrespectively) is not accurate.
Bush merely supports some forms of socilaism. Fdr implemnted them. Bush takes for granted that the states are forever bound to the union, while Lincoln's ambition turned that injustice into reality. As much as I dislike Bush (though I admit I dislike Kerry even more - Bush does some things wrong but he's probably sincere while Kerry does things wrong out of a kind of selfishness) I wouldn't compare him to the bastard who put us all under the federal boot or the bastard who used that boot to rob us of our livelyhoods in the name of charity.
So no, Bush isn't the equal of Lincoln or FDR - he'd have to do much worse for that to happen.
Miss Annika (again),
"Lee Takes Command" by Clifford Dowdey. Judging by the reviews listed for the book you linked I'd encourage you to pick up Dowdey's work. Not an all encompassing piece by any means, but it won't be filled with theories about celtic genetic/cultural causation for the South's military defeat.
Posted by: Publicola at October 31, 2004 01:09 AM (+nokQ)
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I can tell you this, if a weapons Cache were found by US troops it wouldn't be left unguarded. We are required to provide armed security for small numbers of small arms, do you honestly think we'd leave tons of explosives unprotected?
Kerry must think the American people are idiots and our military a joke to even push this rediculous idea.
SlagleRock Out!
Oh, and Happy Halloween!
Posted by: SlagleRock at October 31, 2004 11:08 AM (YbjOr)
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Scof,
Very clearly put. I wonder though if you have a clue as to what I meant.
Posted by: mike at November 01, 2004 06:43 AM (0ZdtC)
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Annika -
Perhaps some of the Russian Generals from the Winter War against Finland - but probably very few survived the wrath of Stalin.
I take exception to McClellan being a brilliant strategist. A strategist connects ends - ways - means in a coherent manner. I disagree Little Mac would have been happy with a stalemate, but I do think he would have preferred a quick resolution that would have returned much of the landscape to pre-war conditions with perhaps only slight modifications that would have merely postponed conflict (although perhaps not civil war). Thus, McClellan had the end (take Richmond early), ways (attack on two fronts from the North and East), and means (Union Army which he had trained well - his forte was as a force developer, not employer).
He was unlucky Confederate Gen Johnston got wounded early in the campaign (Johnston probably would have retreated to Richmond and dug in after the first failed attack). McClellan, though, showed little understanding of the integrated use of cavalry as reconnaissance, screening, and shaping elements and failed to press the narrow window he had to take Richmond because he lacked the daring to maneuver without his heavy artillery.
And Little Mac actually had Lee's campaign plan for the invasion of MD and still could only manage a draw at Antietam.
In defense though of another fellow West Point alum, Jeff Davis' picture still hangs in the halls of the Pentagon
Posted by: Col Steve at November 01, 2004 08:56 PM (0MJte)
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October 27, 2004
More Evidence Of The Liberals' Tendency To Violence
Forget those guys throwing pies at Ann Coulter, (which, as my crim law professor will tell you, is both an assault and a battery), forget Elizabeth Edwards tacit approval of rioting as blackmail,
SOMEONE TRIED TO KILL KATHERINE HARRIS.
i have no evidence to support this theory, but i blame the lying, hateful, disgusting, race-baiting video, which has been circulating on the internet (which i will not link to), and which demonizes Katherine Harris so severely that it literally made me wince.
And this creep, true to liberal form, says he was merely exercising his right to political expression.
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Posted by: Xrlq at October 27, 2004 09:27 PM (6DLYC)
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BTW, is there anything actually known about this man's politics? And, it appears he was not trying to kill her, since he turned away away and did not even hit her. It would seem that if he were trying to kill her he could have. Not that that would be a loss, mind you, but why call it something it is not? Oh, I forgot, it suits your purpose and really, then, what has the truth to do with it?
http://www.ericblumrich.com/gta.html
See why she should have gone to jail rather than become a congressperson.
Posted by: mike at October 28, 2004 03:11 PM (0ZdtC)
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"...which, as my crim law professor will tell you, is both an assault and a battery..."
I don't remember: did they hit? It wouldn't be a battery if they missed.
Speaking of assault, Mike, yes, he's a Dem (shocker, I know) and has properly been charged with aggravated assault. "I didn't intend to kill you" gets you out of attempted murder, but not out of being a serious felon. Whether it's a car or a gun, pointing a deadly weapon at someone to scare them by threatening their life is hardly just (in his own words) "political expression."
Posted by: Dave J at October 28, 2004 03:19 PM (VThvo)
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Mike, i don't know if you are a long time visitor or not. But i hope people who come here have noticed my commitment to scrupulous intellectual honesty. If i make a mistake, i will acknowledge it. And i hope i never make a false statement simply to "suit my purpose." (humorous posts excepted, of course)
Driving a cadillac into a crowd of people satisfies the elements of Attempted Murder. The word "attempt" is synonymous with "try," therefore i am correct in saying that the asshole "tried to kill Katherine Harris."
It's still attempted murder even if you argue that, since he swerved at the last minute, he did not intend to kill anyone. The "intent" element of the crime is satisfied by his "reckless disregard" for human life when he drove a car over the curb, at a crowd of people. The DA apparently made a tactical decision not to charge Attempted Murder, but that doesn't mean his act doesn't fit the legal definition.
Posted by: annika at October 28, 2004 04:10 PM (zAOEU)
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Hmmmmm...a quick search of the case law by this non-criminal Florida attorney finds that you are, indeed, correct: under the facts of this case, it does appear that the State Attorney could indeed have charged Attempted Second-Degree Murder. See
Brown v. State, 790 So.2d 389 (Fla. 2000);
Gentry v. State, 437 So.2d 1097 (Fla. 1983).
Nonetheless, I personally find Justice Harding's dissent in
Brown vastly more convincing: the Florida Supreme Court's jurisprudence on criminal attempt seems to be all over the place, holding inconsistently that it is both a general intent crime and a specific intent crime; moreover, he finds the overwhelming majority of jurisdictions treat attempt as a specific intent crime, with only Colorado joining Florida, and Colorado at least conceding that it is at variance with most of the country. Harding explains why "general intent attempted murder" is logically impossible:
"An attempt, by nature, is a failure to accomplish what one intended to do. Attempt means to try; it means an effort to bring about a desired result."
Keys v. State, 104 Nev. 736, 766 P.2d 270, 273 (198

. The concept of attempt seems necessarily to involve the notion of an intended consequence, for when one attempts to do something one is endeavoring or trying to do it. Hence, an attempt requires a desired, or at least an intended, consequence. Paul H. Robinson & Jane A. Grall,
Element Analysis in Defining Criminal Liability: The Model Penal Code and Beyond, 35 Stan. L. Rev. 681, 747 n.290 (1983). The nature of an attempt, then, is that it requires a specific intent.
...
here is a substantial distinction between a completed crime and an attempt. In a case involving a completed crime, the State is punishing a defendant for conduct which was carried out to completion. In contrast, in a case involving an attempt, an inchoate crime, there is no completed offense, so the State is punishing a defendant for conduct preparatory to the offense coupled with the intent to commit such an offense. Unlike the completed offense, mere preparatory conduct without any intent should not be enough to establish an attempt.
Therefore, based on the reasons stated above, I would recede from Gentry and conclude that all attempt crimes require a specific intent to commit the underlying offense...
...
Murder is a result-oriented crime which cannot be proven without first establishing the "result element" that a person is dead. In light of the conclusion that attempt is a specific intent crime, it follows that a person cannot be convicted of attempted murder if that person did not intend the result of death. It is not enough that the defendant simply intended certain conduct without also intending the result (i.e., although a defendant may have intended to fire a gun at a house, if the defendant did not intend to kill, this should not amount to an attempted murder). See, e.g., [United States v. Roa, 12 M.J. 210, 212] ("Appellate defense counsel have suggested that the government's theory would produce some anomalous results.... [A]n accused who had fired into [a large] crowd with no intent to kill anyone but with a wanton disregard for human life and had injured no one could, under the government's theory, be convicted of a separate attempt to murder every person in the crowd.").
Posted by: Dave J at October 28, 2004 06:00 PM (GEMsk)
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Interesting. But i hasten to remind you that the quoted language is a dissent, and therefore it is not law. Furthermore, this is the exact same Florida Supreme Court that screwed up the 2000 election. And in fact, there's a pretty glaring misspelled word in the 3rd paragraph of the Brown opinion, which does nothing to change my low regard for that particular court.
Anyways, i read the case, and while the dissent does seem persuasive, it does not address the issue as i see it: whether depraved heart or reckless disregard is sufficient to establish intent for the crime of attempted murder. i hold that it is, whether the crime be classified as one of specific intent or one of general intent.
In the context of attempt, the distinction between specific intent crimes and general intent crimes, according to the dissent, is that in general intent crimes the state has to prove intent to do the crime only, while under the standard of specific intent, the state would also have to prove intent to commit the overt act in furtherance of the attempt.
So as you can see, the Brown court was not asked to decide whether depraved heart or reckless disregard satisfies the
mens rea element for the crime of attempted murder.
Bottom line: i'm still right.
Posted by: annika at October 28, 2004 06:54 PM (CDVJq)
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Believe me, you don't have any need to convince me of the shortcomings of the Florida Supreme Court; I've been dealing with their nonsense practically nonstop for the past three years. In fact, you probably have NO idea just how bad they are and, yes, Harding was practically in Gore's pocket throughout the 2000 election debacle, which was hardly one of their most egregious fuckups. The House was getting ready to impeach most of them over
Armstrong v. Harris, 773 So.2d 7 (Fla. 2000), when the whole recount mess conveniently (for the justices) intervened. By the time that was all over, the legislators were all either too exhausted to deal with it or had just forgotten about it. Don't even get me started on how term limits undercut separation of powers in favor of the judiciary.
I agreed with you, of course,
Brown is the law in Florida and thus a defendant can be charged here with "attempted second-degree murder," despite the fact that that still makes no logical sense to me, and would also appear to never be distinguishable from aggravated assault. But when you say you're right, I expect that would vary from one jurisdiction to the next.
Posted by: Dave J at October 28, 2004 08:05 PM (GEMsk)
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Annika,
I was not truly looking for the legal definition of attempted murder; since you said in your lead in that "someone tried to kill KH" I was more interested in what he was thinking about (assassination?) and why you thought he was tiring to kill her. Not whether a prosecutor would be able to make the case for attempted murder. Without any information to contradict his statement confessing to wanting only to scare her, I still maintain that we/you cannot say with certainty "someone tried to kill KH."
Also, in my cursory reading about the event, I did not see where he mentioned exercising his right to free speech?
Posted by: mike at October 29, 2004 03:34 PM (0ZdtC)
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Mike, i think it's freakin hilarious that you can say attempted murder is not the same as "trying to kill someone." Seriously, that's very funny. Did you type that with a straight face. Only a liberal would say something like that. And only a liberal would be "more interested in what he was thinking about" than in the criminal act itself.
One of the reasons why i'm not a liberal.
Oh, and read the link again. (For pete's sake, it's only five paragraphs long.) In paragraph four you'll find the quote: "I was exercising my political expression."
Posted by: annika! at October 29, 2004 05:46 PM (rJOua)
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Hi Annika,
Well, yes I did miss the fact he said he was exercising his right to political expression. My apologies.
But, I am not particularly interested in the ravings of a fellow who does not seem to have his head on straight.
I think you have hit an important issue that divides what we loosely refer to as the liberal way of thinking from the conservative. The mind set that will execute children and the mentally deficient. The mind set that views compassion as the joke Bush played to help win the 2000 election.
It is what I see as a rigid mind, a law and order perspective that treats all acts as defined by law equally v. a mind set that is interested in motivation and circumstance before determining punishment. The former, the mind set that came up with the Rockefeller drug package in NY or is against removing the federal sentencing guidelines.
I recognize that this man can be charged with attempted murder as can an enraged, disenfranchised voter who enters KH's house armed with a length of rebar. He whacks her once and only refrains from killing her because his back goes out and he falls writhing to the floor.
I am not an attorney, but I suspect that the charge, ignoring the B&E, is the same as the driver who swerved to miss hitting her.
Are they deserving of the same penalty? And did they both try to kill KH?
BTW, why did you assume that the car driver was a liberal? And why do you assume it take a race baiting video of KH to make one wince? I winced the first time I saw her. A woman who's psychological damage was worn plainly around her eyes.
Posted by: mike at October 30, 2004 09:33 AM (0ZdtC)
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"I recognize that this man can be charged with attempted murder as can an enraged, disenfranchised voter who enters KH's house armed with a length of rebar."
The latter has specific intent to kill. That makes it attempted first degree murder rather than attempted second degree murder.
"I am not an attorney, but I suspect that the charge, ignoring the B&E, is the same as the driver who swerved to miss hitting her."
No, see above. Moreover, that's not just breaking & entering: it's first-degree burglary. See Fla. Stat. § 810.02(2)(a).
"Are they deserving of the same penalty?"
No, since they didn't commit the same crime.
Posted by: Dave J at October 30, 2004 11:51 AM (GEMsk)
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Joanne Jacobs has a less serious example of
knee-jerk liberalism turning into violence on a college campus:
A part-time instructor at Fort Lewis College in Colorado kicked the leg of a student wearing a College Republicans sweat shirt at an off-campus restaurant. According to student Mark O'Donnell, his assailant, Maria Spero, then said "she should have kicked me harder and higher."
Spero, a visiting instructor of modern languages, apologized to O'Donnell in a letter dated Oct. 29.
"I acted entirely inappropriately by kicking you, giving vent to a thoughtless knee-jerk political reaction that should never have happened," she wrote. "Before the incident, I did not know you and that you are a Fort Lewis student."
Posted by: markm at October 30, 2004 05:30 PM (5nK/L)
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October 26, 2004
Pop Historian Shows Astounding Lack Of Smarts
Robert Dallek is a popular Democratic leaning historian. Perhaps you've seen his toothy grin on TV. i own
his thick tome on LBJ, but haven't gotten around to reading it yet. In a
column for USA Today, he presents a pretty good recap of electoral history, while exhibiting an astounding lack of analytical ability.
If voters pay as close attention to a president's record as I think they do, Bush will likely sink on Nov. 2. Like Taft, Bush is vulnerable to charges of being in the pockets of corporate interests. Like Hoover, he has presided over an administration that has lost jobs. Not since the Great Depression has any other president had to run on a record of shrinking rather than expanding employment. However mindful he has been about the economic causes of his father's defeat, Bush does not seem well positioned to avoid his father's political fate.
Repeat after me Bob:
"Bush will win re-election. Bush will win re-election." If you start saying it now, you may get used to the idea before it happens next week.
Dallek conveniently cherry-picks his analogies to justify his own wishful thinking, and reveals his typical liberal Democrat myopia:
Like Ford, who unrealistically denied Soviet domination of Eastern Europe, and Carter, who could not manage to rescue American hostages from Tehran or control rising oil prices, Bush's blundering policy in Iraq, alienation of so many other governments and peoples around the globe, and uncertain formula for dealing with terrorists raise doubts about his stewardship of foreign policy, which can work to deny him a second term.
Comparing Bush to Ford or Carter is simply bad historical analysis. Ford lost because of his predecessor, not because of anything he said at the debate. And Carter ran this country's economy into the ground and made the US an international laughing stock. Like it or not, while the US may have lost a few friends around the world under Bush, no one can say we're not respected in a Machiavellian sense. That's just fine with me, and i suspect it's fine with the majority of
American voters too.
i also thought it was funny how Dallek ended his column by hedging his historical bet, with this bit of prospective sour-grapes:
That a president with so questionable a record is still running a competitive race is a little startling. If Bush wins the election, it would seem to represent the triumph of spin politics.
Funny, i might say the same thing if Kerry wins. But since Kerry is
not going to win, i won't have to, lol.
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As someone who worked as a "reader" for one of his classes at UCLA (where he taught in the early '90s), I don't think "pop historian" is fair. Everyone agrees that his biographies of LBJ are the standard in the business. He is a first-rate scholar and was a marvelous teacher. However, first-rate scholars can long for public acclaim, and in pursuit of that acclaim, often do "dumb down" their message. He's a fine, fine man -- and his written scholarship is far more substantive than his op-ed columns and his tv pronouncements.
Posted by: Hugo at October 26, 2004 12:10 PM (+5Isa)
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Hugo, you're forgetting
Robert A. Caro, who has written a Proustian three volumes on the life of LBJ -- and he hasn't even started on the presidential years yet! Caro's work
is the standard not only in LBJ scholarship, but arguably sets a standard for all historical biography. i saw him speak on CSPAN and he is amazing. Someday i plan to read his multi-volume biography, though it may take me a year to do it, because i'm fascinated by LBJ. (i've already read Beschloss's stuff, which is very interesting too.)
Anyways, i've no doubt Dallek's a good guy, though wrong about the election. Since i haven't read either, i can't comment on
their disagreements regarding the LBJ legacy. Still, the #1 LBJ scolar today is clearly Caro, based on the depth of his work on the subject.
Posted by: annika at October 26, 2004 01:48 PM (zAOEU)
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Caro's LBJ tomes are amazing – well-researched, thorough, reasonable, and wonderfully written. I've never been a big fan of LBJ (and still aren't), but after reading Caro's first volume I became obsessed about learning everything I can about this contradictory historical figure. I'm in Austin, so I'm tempted to go down to the LBJ Presidential Library every so often to tell Caro -- in the kindest, gentlest way, of course -- to hurry his slow methodical ass up and not pull a William Manchester on us!
Posted by: Todd at October 26, 2004 03:21 PM (OPYfK)
Posted by: annika at October 26, 2004 04:17 PM (zAOEU)
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Well, you've got me on Caro. I've never read him, largely because as someone who isn't an Americanist, I felt that one bio of LBJ was sufficient for me. (Now, if we're talking Edward III, that's a different story). And I picked Dallek because I had worked for him, and trusted his scholarship -- and liked his politics.
Posted by: Hugo at October 26, 2004 05:08 PM (+5Isa)
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LBJ? LBJ!!? Who gives a fuck, really. Teddy Roosevelt's bio by Edmund Morris, now there's a biography to get deep with. What a life. He did more before he was 25 than LBJ can account for, I'll tell ya what.
Posted by: Scof at October 26, 2004 08:10 PM (9lWXc)
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If biographies are what you like, then Otto Pflanze's "Bismarck and the Development of Germany" Is the best you can get!
Posted by: lawguy at October 26, 2004 10:32 PM (Z+r8N)
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Sort of what has happened to Paul Krugman.
Biographical discussions aside, what he leaves out is a discussion that, given his "analysis", the competitiveness of the race also must reflect either poorly on the public perception of Senator Kerry's qualification to be President or on the quality of his campaign.
Posted by: Col Steve at October 26, 2004 11:14 PM (0MJte)
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Caro is an honest historian, but let me save you the weeks it would take to read the three volume set. LBJ was the kind of turd who'd make Clinton smell good. Truth is D presidential candidates pretend to be JFK, while they're really LBJ. When he became President in 1963, LBJ had a personal fortune of over $10 million, and had never worked outside the public sector. His cover story was that Lady Bird had inherited. Well, she did, about $20K with which she bought a radio station, while Lyndon was the Chairman of the FCC oversight committee. If you wanted something from Lyndon, you bought advertising.
Posted by: Casca at October 27, 2004 06:16 PM (cdv3B)
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I'm glad Hugo stuck up for Dallek. Although like Annika, I' dissing his analysis on the election.
Didn't such a fine historian ever hear of Harry Truman? Truman was a wildly unpopular President in November, 1948, but managed a big win against a complacent Tom Dewey. The economy at that time was in the toilet, the Sovs were on the march, and Truman was still seen as a water boy for Missouri political interests. And yet, he pulled it off with room to spare.
By the way...lots of good historical biographies out there...how about Fleming's three volume bio of George Washington?
Posted by: superhawk at October 28, 2004 03:23 PM (+7VNs)
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superhawk: Of course, Truman had a real loser for an opponent. But not as bad as Kerry...
Posted by: markm at October 30, 2004 05:37 PM (5nK/L)
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Mad About Bush
[i thought Helen Hunt got killed at the Pyongyang Peace Conference. Apparently not.]
What really pisses me off about the new Helen Hunt political TV spot is the arrogant assumption that all single women are lock-step liberals. i can tell you, we are not.
However, i do agree that "We can make the difference. We are the difference." In fact, i think the unholy alliance of media-entertainment-academic elites may be surprised at the difference we make, when women voters help deliver the election to George W. Bush next week. Perhaps very surprised.
While i still think that overall, Kerry will win a majority of the female vote, i don't think it will be by the Clintonian margins Democrats took for granted in the 90's. The Christian Science Monitor noted in September:
Democrats have long held an edge among women voters, a slight majority of the electorate, and grown to count on them to offset the Republicans' persistent advantage among men. Traditionally, women have given extra care to issues that favor Democrats, such as healthcare, education, and Social Security. Now, the war on terror - and the way Bush is playing it - appears to have shifted that calculation somewhat.
'Bush is trying to reassure them on healthcare and education, saying those things are important, but really it's security,' says Democratic pollster Celinda Lake. 'Women give him a 23-point advantage on security, and that's what's really driving their vote.'
Time Magazine originally had the female vote split evenly before the first debate, then gave Kerry
a dubious 14 point post debate bounce among women. A swing like that doesn't seem credible to me, and i'm inclined to believe that the final result will show a pretty striking gain for the GOP among women voters. If anyone has more up-to-date polling info, feel free to let me know in the comments.
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Similar vein: just saw Barbara Boxer's campaign ad. Her message for the 21st Century: "I will NOT allow us to go back to the days of back-alley abortions!!!"
Fear-mongering much? I guess this is the issue on which the Woman of Today is going to pick a president in wartime.
Posted by: jeff at October 26, 2004 05:04 PM (Ag7cW)
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For many naive women it is still a one issue election. But thankfully, not all of us look at everything through the prism of abortion.
Posted by: annika at October 26, 2004 05:08 PM (zAOEU)
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For some reason I always liked Mad about You, even though Paul Reiser played too much of a whiny bitch for me to take. More and more as the "new media" takes hold, these celebrities and academics and media elites will realize what you and I and many know: we don't give a fuck about their 2 cents.
Posted by: Scof at October 26, 2004 07:59 PM (9lWXc)
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ARUGH! This annoys the hell out of me too. 4 years ago this single woman voted for the right man, damn it!
Posted by: Jennifer at October 26, 2004 09:03 PM (/NTmN)
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October 23, 2004
Shameless Pandering
Here's the very first paragraph you will find on the homepage of the official Kerry website today, which i found insulting:
John Kerry will strengthen and expand the middle class and help working women by strengthening the economy. In todayÂ’s economy, too many hard-working women are falling further and further behind. Instead of offering help, George Bush has turned his back, broken his promises and in some cases, taken no action at all.
This is one reason why Democrats make me queasy. It's never about Americans. It's always about classifications.
Wouldn't strengthening the economy help all Americans, not just "working women?" And wouldn't strengthening the economy help non-working women too? You know, the kind Kerry's wife insulted the other day?
This type of pandering, supposedly directed at me, is a complete turn off. Someone in the campaign reads a poll that says Kerry needs more points from the "working women" category, and so they take out their economy template and plug the words "working women" into it.
i'm sorry, but i don't buy it. i know that a Kerry administration would lose jobs by increasing the minimum wage and increasing taxes on the entrepreneurial class that creates jobs. And i plan to be looking for a job in about three years, just when the effects of a Kerry economic downturn will take effect.
So i don't appreciate the shameless pandering, as if women were all idiots who got all goose pimply, saying: "Oooh Kerry just mentioned our interest group! Isn't he the dreamiest?"
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So why is half the country buying this stuff?
Posted by: mark at October 23, 2004 11:03 AM (AO+Ri)
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It's one of the things that scares me most about Kerry and the kind of thinking he represents...these are people with no concept of America as anything other than a collection of interest groups. It reminds me of the old cartoon showing two guys in a rowboat...as the stern goes down, the guy in the bow says, "Why should I worry? My end's not sinking."
It also reminds me of some of the really dysfunctional teams that have appeared on The Apprentice, in which every possible issue--how to price cleaning products, for example--becomes merely a hammer for one person to beat another over the head with. Such teams tend not to be real successful...
Posted by: David Foster at October 23, 2004 02:58 PM (DYjwl)
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Good. You're back.
Jason
Austin, Texas
Posted by: Jason H at October 23, 2004 06:07 PM (RMRNe)
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Kerry keeps talking about the shrinking middle class. He is correct it is actually shrinking.
But the reason the middle class is shrinking is that so many are moving into the upper middle class or the upper class.
The Democrats put women and blacks in the same category. That is, you cannot succeed in life without government help.
It is racism and sexism at its worst.
Posted by: jake at October 23, 2004 07:25 PM (h4tU8)
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(So i don't appreciate the shameless pandering, as if women were all idiots who got all goose pimply, saying: "Oooh Kerry just mentioned our interest group! Isn't he the dreamiest?")
Alas, for the majority of that demographic, it's true.
Posted by: Casca at October 24, 2004 09:58 AM (cdv3B)
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"This is one reason why Democrats make me queasy. It's never about Americans. It's always about classifications."
Verily, thats the only way they can get anyone behind thir flimsy policies. They make people think that they either are being shit-on by someone, or that they deserve something that someone else has. So, naturally, they appeal to all the gluts and neurotics.
Nice blog. Keep fightin'.
Posted by: Smacky at October 28, 2004 12:38 AM (cyWwe)
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Krauthammer Piece
Charles Krauthammer's latest op-ed contains this thought provoking paragraph:
John Kerry says he wants to 'rejoin the community of nations.' There is no issue on which the United States more consistently fails the global test of international consensus than Israel. In July, the U.N. General Assembly declared Israel's defensive fence illegal by a vote of 150 to 6. In defending Israel, America stood almost alone.
What are Kerry's plans regarding American support for Israel?
Krauthammer has a theory, and it's not very comforting.
Hat tip to commenter Shelly.
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Hello. Just stumbled onto your site from rschultz.blogspot.com.
Thought you ought to know that flip flop is at it again. I just saw an ad on tv where Kerry said that GW has not done enough to help Israel. Also said that he fully supported them building the wall. Just a bit unilateral of him, no?
db
Posted by: David at October 25, 2004 11:00 PM (JzKo5)
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October 20, 2004
Time Out For Cynicism
i'd like to take time out from my ongoing coverage of
Election-Fest 2004 to submit the following Statement of Undisputed Facts.
If George W. Bush wins, the left will spend the next four years complaining, they will remain as obstructionist as ever, and they will blame everything on Bush.
If John Kerry wins, the left will spend the next four years complaining, they will remain as obstructionist as ever, and they will blame everything on the Republican congress.
We now return you to our regularly scheduled election coverage.
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Unless, fingers crossed, there ain't a Republican Congress anymore!!!
Posted by: Dawn Summers at October 21, 2004 05:12 PM (HLOeu)
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i walked right into that one, lol!
Posted by: annika! at October 21, 2004 05:52 PM (kske/)
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LMAO!!! Thanks for the first hearty laugh of the day. I needed it!
Posted by: Amy at October 22, 2004 07:33 AM (RpVKX)
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man that's quote of the month material, there
Posted by: ken at October 22, 2004 03:57 PM (xD5ND)
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Gavin Newsom: Sex Symbol
Not much to add to this story. It's pretty freakin' funny as is:
Kimberly Guilfoyle Newsom took the stage at Thursday night's big Empire State Pride Agenda fund-raiser.
Guilfoyle Newsom was a last-minute sub for her husband at the gay rights event, which drew 1,100 guests. By all accounts, Guilfoyle Newsom -- who lives in New York and is a regular on Court TV -- gave an inspired speech.
But what really brought the house down was when she started talking about her hubby.
'I know that many of you wanted to see my husband and some of you had questions out there,' Guilfoyle Newsom said.
'Is he hot? Yeah.
'Is he hung? Yeah.
'Is he (she waved her hand to suggest bisexual)? Not unless you can give a better (she mimicked eating a banana) than me,' Guilfoyle Newsom said.
Clinton and Starr, what hast thou wrought?
From SFGate.
Update: Here, Bill and Gavin seem to disagree on what the definition of "hung" is.
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Just when I thought Tereza was the only spousal dingbat in politics.........
Posted by: reagan80 at October 20, 2004 01:00 PM (hlMFQ)
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October 09, 2004
Beautiful Asymmetry
These two quotes from John Kerry at last night's debate are so beautiful, all i can do is sit back and admire them.
Quote 1:
He's trying to attack me. He wants you to believe that I can't be president. And he's trying to make you believe it because he wants you to think I change my mind. Well, let me tell you straight up: I've never changed my mind about Iraq. I do believe Saddam Hussein was a threat. I always believed he was a threat. Believed it in 1998 when Clinton was president. I wanted to give Clinton the power to use force if necessary.
Quote 2:
I don't think you can just rely on U.N. sanctions [to contain Iran], Randee. But you're absolutely correct, it is a threat, it's a huge threat. And what's interesting is, it's a threat that has grown while the president has been preoccupied with Iraq, where there wasn't a threat.
Kinda takes your breath away don't it?
Via Paul at Wizbang.
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I admire Kerry's resolve too.
I held the same position for over 22 minutes. A new record for him.
Posted by: jake at October 09, 2004 10:29 PM (h4tU8)
Posted by: Casca at October 10, 2004 06:33 AM (Y671w)
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He's always held those positions, both for and against. So, you see, it's true. He's NEVER changed his mind. He's ALWAYS been on BOTH sides.
That's why he could shoot a fleeing man in the back, and burn a village in Vietnam, put himself in for undeserved medals, then pretend to discard them for the values of his higher self. What a man... war hero, and peacenik. I find him revolting, and believe that the majority of American voters will too.
Posted by: Casca at October 10, 2004 06:38 AM (Y671w)
Posted by: Christopher Blosser at October 10, 2004 08:39 PM (tqj0U)
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October 08, 2004
Presidential Debate Notes 2.0
i wanna do this without listening to any of the TV pundits, so my opinion won't be tainted. Which means that i may end up modifying my opinions later after i've taken in the insights of people wiser than i am. Plus, we finished another couple of bottles of that chianti, and i'm on my second glass of Port. So waaatchout!
more...
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Nicely said. i agree.
You write all of this after 3 bottles of wine. I am impressed.
Posted by: jake at October 08, 2004 09:31 PM (h4tU8)
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I think the domestic policy points for Bush (I agree with your point) should be a real concern for the Kerry camp going into the domestic policy debate. I'm sure they thought they had that one in the bag.
Posted by: Kevin at October 08, 2004 09:45 PM (pXwPO)
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Annika, the Fact is, though Bush gets high marks for foreign policy, it is not his strong point. Kerry has spent his whole life studying foreign policy. Bush was the Governor of a state(though as large as some countries) and always focused on domestic issues. The only reason Bush has received high marks for FP was his Moral clarity and His team! Bush provides the vision the team fills in the rest. On domestic, Bush dealt With them first hand as Gov, he as more experience in that area. That is why I always though the FP parts of the debate would be Bush's weakest and domestics would be his strongest! Kerry really does not have the intellectual foundation in domestic issues like Bush. Bush is more comfortable discussing domestic issues than FP issues. Remember Cheney was chosen for His FP experience to balance out the ticket in 2000!
Posted by: lawguy at October 08, 2004 09:59 PM (LaG4i)
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i can't disagree with your analysis, lawguy.
Posted by: annika! at October 08, 2004 10:03 PM (Tsclf)
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Kerry is a one-trick pony, and his bluster is wearing thin.
Posted by: Casca at October 08, 2004 10:23 PM (Y671w)
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Gibson owns you repuke cunt!
Posted by: Um Yeah at October 08, 2004 10:44 PM (tBOCg)
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Bush won on everything. I'am bias about America and I don't think Kerry truly believe in the USA no matter what he says. He don't believe in the troops can get the job done, Kerry thinks France and the UN knows what is best and that is all I need to know about the guy, serious does Kerry really seems to be for the country someone answer that one.
Posted by: Dex at October 08, 2004 10:49 PM (rTD+p)
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Annika:
I tended to see it the same way - the President let Kerry off the hook on the FP side and Kerry was on the defensive/backtracking on the Dom side.
I also fail to see why the President's advisor don't hammer home the point that all the "conditions" Kerry faults the President for in 2002/3 about going to war were satisfied in 1990/1 and he voted against that resolution while he voted for one in 2002.
Also, if "intelligence" is so important to Kerry, why doesn't the President do the 1-2 punch about his votes on the intelligence budget as well as Kerry's attendance at Intelligence committee meetings?
The last question was dumb, but I suspect Kerry thinks the abortion and stem cell questions were slanted against him. Did he tap dance when the President hit him with the votes on parental notification and partial birth?
If I were advising the President, I'd get him to reinforce the point that security underpins everything. He should look the people in the eye and tell them "you know that if you're not safe in your homes, neighborhood, or schools, then your family and your community won't function" - the same is true for the nation." And then have him rattle off "Beirut, TWA, PAN-AM, Berlin disco, Somalia, NYC WTC 93, USS Coles, African embassies, etc..and say our response to those events were tepid and emboldened our enemies that resulted in 9/11...and we're not going back..(which could bring in Kerry's comment about "sensitive", global test, etc..)
I'd really wish someone would ask Kerry exaxtly WHICH countries not in the coalition he expects to join us as a result of his "summit." Having just had a chance to talk with some of my peers at NATO, they are terrified of the prospect of Kerry actually having to "name names." They love the current position of being anti-Bush, but actually fear a Kerry victory - they don't want to participate and Bush gives them an out.
Kerry is now officially on record about taxes, tort reform (wow, did he try to say that fast so nobody heard him), and budget deficit reduction. If he wins, the Rep nominee in 2008 will already have his/her commercials teed up.
I'm also waiting to hear if any mentions the people chosen were almost all white except for the one black woman (maybe I dozed off, but I don't recall any other non-white questioner)..
Posted by: Col Steve at October 08, 2004 11:52 PM (koO9j)
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Um Yeah: All right! Way to convince conservatives that liberals are rational and not as blinded by anger as they're made out to be!
Congrats,
Kevin
Posted by: Kevin Kim at October 09, 2004 03:39 AM (mu2fq)
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Kerry looked like an idiot and couldn't stop lying. If Bush owns a timber company, I own fucking General Electric.
Crush Kerry!
Posted by: d-rod at October 09, 2004 07:23 AM (Btejk)
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I thought that the final question was intended to mean "what are the worst 3 decisions that *you* have ever made," where "you" means Bush or Kerry, as applicable. Kerry chose to interpret it in terms of Bush's decisions, not his own.
Posted by: David Foster at October 09, 2004 07:59 AM (XUtCY)
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Just checked the transcript, and I guess my interpretation of the question was wrong. I must have been thinking about how the question *should* have been asked.
Posted by: David Foster at October 09, 2004 08:03 AM (XUtCY)
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Col. Steve, as usual, you make several excellent points. Not the least of which is that our reluctant "allies" really don't want to participate and Bush gives them an out.
Kerry wants us to believe that the force of his personality alone will bring the "allies" to the table. Yet this is a man who is so pompous and unlikeable, that his campaign is hard pressed to find any friends in the Senate, or even going way back to college. People don't like this man one-on-one. As a rule, people like Bush once they meet him. Which underscores the point. Personality is important in diplomacy, but it is not magic. Personality can't make a nation act against what it percieves as its own self interest. And our supposed "allies" still feel that it is not in their self interest to get involved in "America's war." How's Kerry going to change their minds?
And Kerry's "plan" that he referred to dozens of times, consists of these two points only (check the transcript): he will bring the allies to the table, and he will train the Iraqi security forces
faster! So we're supposed to trust him on the basis of those two slim promises?
And what if our "allies" just say no, which they undoubtedly will? i'm not voting for a man who believes the Iraq War has been conducted "all wrong," but his only plan to fix it amounts to training the Iraqis faster.
Posted by: annika! at October 09, 2004 08:15 AM (qP4HR)
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Kerry is basically arguing that we should elect him because of his diplomatic abilities; ie, his personal selling skills. If I were interviewing someone for an important sales job--and if he were claiming that he could get us into accounts that had previously not been obtainable--I would want to know:
a)What is your previous experience in closing major sales?
b)What ideas do you have for *specifically* how you will sell these accounts? What "benefits" arguments will you make that we have not already made? How will you work the internal politics within these prospects in order to develop advocacy for our products?
Kerry has provided no answers to the above questions.
Posted by: David Foster at October 09, 2004 09:37 AM (XUtCY)
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whats the differance between a fresh masive peanutt shit and a KKKonservitive?
theres less nuts in the shit and its a hole lot warmer!
BUSH LIED PEOPLE DIED!
Posted by: Um Yeah at October 09, 2004 10:38 AM (B4DzP)
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Um Yeah, it's funny you mentioned the KKK. If Robert Byrd ever goes against the Demonicrat party line, the media might find out that he was in the Klan or something.........
It's also funny that you brought up massive peanut shit. I'm sure Carter had excreted plenty of those while in office........http://www.whitehouse.gov/history/presidents/jc39.html
If my man wins this election, I gotta new slogan.........KERRY TRIED, VOTERS DENIED
Posted by: reagan80 at October 09, 2004 11:47 AM (hlMFQ)
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AWESOME! CLICK ON MY NAME!
Next time we'll get alot more!
ULULULULULULULULULULULULULULULU
Posted by: Barney Gumble at October 09, 2004 12:41 PM (NJAlF)
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WTF?!?!
Is Barney G. saying that he's joyous that the "evil joos" were killed in Egypt? Is he saying that he's a terrorist and that he's gonna kill more next time? If that's the case, I hope this happens to you, Mr Grumble..........
http://www.badassmofo.com/funstuff/video/donkey.mpg
Posted by: reagan80 at October 09, 2004 04:49 PM (hlMFQ)
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Annika...I've linked this, with additional commentary on the Truman thing.
Posted by: David Foster at October 09, 2004 05:30 PM (XUtCY)
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I don't think Kerry actually believes he can create a larger or stronger coalition, and I don't think he cares at all about that. His position is where it is because that's what his core support wants to hear.
He says whatever he thinks the listener wants to hear. Why should this particular instance be any different?
Posted by: Ted at October 10, 2004 06:47 PM (ZjSa7)
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Here's one mistake Bush could and should have owned up to: agreeing to a debate moderated by Charles Gibson.
Posted by: Xrlq at October 11, 2004 02:46 PM (b/34x)
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Style Fucking Matters
(my open letter to the President)
Dear President Bush,
Have you seen the latest Electoral College map? i took the liberty of turning it into a gif file so i could highlight some important areas of concern for me, and i hope, for you too.
more...
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He doesn't seem to be taking your advice. :-(
Posted by: Dave J at October 08, 2004 06:32 PM (GEMsk)
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Annie:
I am so glad that I do not try cases anymore; if you can be half as good as this letter, you will be in such great demand you'll have trouble taking vacations.
I only hope that The President got to read your blog.
Posted by: shelly s. at October 08, 2004 07:14 PM (s6c4t)
3
Bush kicked ass tonight. You should be happy.
Posted by: jake at October 08, 2004 08:10 PM (h4tU8)
Posted by: candace at October 10, 2004 09:18 PM (AIQSK)
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October 05, 2004
Notes On The Vice Presidential Debate
i live blogged the debate on my crappy laptop. i don't think i'll be doing that again. It's too hard to watch and type at the same time. Here's my notes:
more...
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A valuable read, Annika. Thanks.
Kevin
Posted by: Kevin Kim at October 06, 2004 12:04 AM (7rEaY)
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"Who gets to keep the notes they scribble afterwards? The Smithsonian? The National Archives? It's not like they're going to need them after it's over, but the notes are historically valuable."
My guess would be the Commission on Presidential Debates, the non-governmental, non-partisan body that's sponsored these things since 1988.
"The gay marriage issue. Cheney says the issue is judges. i wish he would say the words: full faith and credit clause."
Well, unlike Edwards, who has no excuse whatsoever, Cheney's not a lawyer, so I don't think you could really expect him to get into the details.
"And how does the federal government impose such a tort control plan on a federal system? i dont understand it."
To a far lesser extent than most politicians who support tort reform seem to think, but primarily I would guess by expanding the diversity jurisdiction of the federal courts, especially in the context of class actions.
Posted by: Dave J at October 06, 2004 07:45 AM (VThvo)
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i didnt know what diversity jurisdiction was until a few weeks ago.
Posted by: annika at October 06, 2004 07:53 AM (yHmot)
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Annie,
Yeah, that liveblogging stuff is hard, isn't it? I tried, but did a terrible job.
"And how does the federal government impose such a tort control plan on a federal system? i dont understand it."
Presumably the same way they do lots of other things that they probably have no business doing under a federal system: They call it a commerce issue and pass a statute that directly regulates the field. That'd be my guess, anyway, but maybe they're more subtle than that. (I doubt it, but who knows?)
I was heartened to note that Cheney at least seems
aware of the concept of federalism, even if he conveniently ignores it in the tort reform context. ("Traditionally, that's been an issue for the states. States have regulated marriage, if you will. That would be my preference.") Some of my colleagues think federalism is too metaphysical a point to raise in a national debate, and that it will turn most voters off. They may be right, but it warmed my heart anyway. Sadly, though, Bush doesn't seem to have much respect for federalism. (Neither, of course, does Kerry.) This is one of my biggest complaints against W.
Posted by: Matt at October 06, 2004 08:47 AM (SIlfx)
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I enjoyed your perspective.
A personal aside: Because of his personal story and his cute kids, I would like to like John Edwards, but I do not. He is all about cleverness and none about substance. He is insincere sincerity. He is cotton candy. He promotes class warfare for his benefit, with nary a thought of the nation's benefit-- this is detestable-- John Edwards is actually being part of the problem when he does this. He is being part of the problem with his cleverness masking his lack of substance.
My group of XXL men friends is much different than we would've been 30 years ago. We are more "sensitive." We don't yell at the Little Leaguers we coach, and we talk about stuff our fathers never would've touched. But one thing has not changed: a cotton-candy ass poser like John Edwards gets no respect from us. Neither I nor a single one of my friends like this guy.
Posted by: gcotharn at October 06, 2004 09:08 AM (hoo48)
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Something else. Cotton-candy ass is not that effing clever! If he was that effing clever, me and every friend I have would not see through his bullshit with such ease.
The media infatuation with Edwards has an underlying theme: "Edwards is so good at fooling the rubes." That pretty much says it all about the media, and about Edwards.
Posted by: gcotharn at October 06, 2004 09:14 AM (hoo48)
Posted by: Amy at October 06, 2004 09:33 AM (RpVKX)
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Wow Amy, that was a big screw up! Yuck, Soros.
Thanks for the great work, annie.
Posted by: d-rod at October 06, 2004 09:59 AM (CSRmO)
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"Vice presidential debates decide nothing, but this year, Cheney went a long way to reassure Republicans after Bush's dismal perfirmance last Thursday."
what would you base your decsion on if you were an undecided voter. The VP debates? maybe.
you could try to expand you knowledge of the entire ticket by looking at the VP debates, or by doing more research.
Basically, the VP debates could decide a few people's minds.
Posted by: cubicle at October 06, 2004 11:39 AM (nyNr0)
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"i didnt know what diversity jurisdiction was until a few weeks ago."
Heh, Civ Pro's the "insider" class, now isn't it? The one that most separates lawyers from laypeople, I mean, more so than the substantive subjects.
"Presumably the same way they do lots of other things that they probably have no business doing under a federal system: They call it a commerce issue and pass a statute that directly regulates the field."
But with respect to this area, then you'd almost certainly just have a federal statute sitting alongside preexisting state law, since you're just not going to see Congress preempt whole swathes of the general law of torts even if the courts were to let them get away with it: hence, that would still not make much difference, since plaintiffs could sue under either state or federal law or both, and state courts have concurrent jurisdiction over federal questions unless Congress specifically excludes them.
The reason I said I expected an expansion of the diversity jurisdiction of the federal courts to be the key to any federal tort reform is that Congress legitimately has much greater leeway to do things there than its (essentially non-existent) power re: the state courts. Because the federal constitution establishes only the US Supreme Court, Congress as the creator of the lower federal courts has the last word on their rules of procedure (I could go into snore-inducing detail on the 1934 Rules Enabling Act, but I'll spare you), so anything with respect to, just for example, limitations on attorney fees or punitive damage awards could at least be argued to be procedural even with respect to state-law tort claims. Moreover, at a practical level, the jury pool for a federal district court even in the same state's going to be much larger and less hospitable than in some notoriously plaintiff-friendly rural county where those of Senator Edwards' ilk typically go shopping for clients.
And Congress does have the power to do this: the US Constitution allows for "partial diversity," i.e., federal courts hearing state-law cases where at least one party differs in citizenship from the party or parties opposite, but Congress has never authorized this, never expanded federal jurisdiction to the maximum scope allowed. The statutory diversity jurisdiction of the federal courts has been the same since the Judiciary Act of 1789: "total diversity," wherein all the parties on one side must differ in citizenship from all the parties opposite. This makes it VERY easy for a plaintiff's attorney to keep a case in state court if wanted, simply by finding just one client who's a resident of the same state as any of the defendants and/or naming as a defendant a party from the same state as a plaintiff.
Posted by: Dave J at October 06, 2004 11:40 AM (VThvo)
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Nice, Dave.
While we're at it, anyone wanna help me on the scintillating subject of the difference between rules vs. statutory class action?
Just kidding, of course! That would drive away all visitors.
Posted by: annika at October 06, 2004 11:49 AM (zAOEU)
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Scintillating indeed, at least compared to what I'm working on now. ;-) But that's NFPC (Not For Public Consumption) until it's finished and published--not that you'd likely have much idea what it was about anyway until you're well into Property next semester. Or is that a first-semester class for you? I know different schools vary the first-year curriculum somewhat.
Great job on this, BTW: an insightful but also fun read.
Posted by: Dave J at October 06, 2004 12:48 PM (VThvo)
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Annie,
Wanna know a dirty little secret? . . .
. . .
. . .
. . .
. . .
. . .
. . .
Even now I don't understand the difference between "rules" and "statutory" class actions! I don't think I ever really did. You should try to learn it, though -- it may be on the exam! (And if you figure it out, let me know. I'm not interested enough to research it myself at this point. The odds that I'll ever end up litigating a class action are roughly the same as the odds that God will give me two stone tablets to take down to the Israelites.)
Dave,
You might be interested in
this.
Fair enough, but why fiddle with diversity jurisdiction?
Posted by: Matt at October 06, 2004 01:16 PM (SIlfx)
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Matt, thanks for that. As staff of a state legislature, it strikes me as a useful if rather disturbing read: I'm a supporter of tort reform, but still. Congress couldn't get rid of jury trials in the federal courts and, while the Seventh Amendment doesn't apply to the states, as far as I know every state constitution has an analogous provision, so for the feds to step and abolish civil jury trials in the state courts for specific causes of action, while CRS may be correct in saying it's not strictly unconstitutional per current US Supreme Court case law, still seems blatantly contrary to the principles underlying those constitutional provisions, an overly-convenient end-run around them.
I don't think we even discussed class actions in my Civ Pro class. The professor was too obsessively interested in diversity jurisdiction. ;-) Why fiddle with it? I'm not actually sure that I would, just that if Congress did seriously pursue tort reform, it might be a means to do so without raising as many of the federalism concerns as some other proposals do.
Posted by: Dave J at October 06, 2004 02:01 PM (VThvo)
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Nicely done, Annika. I enjoyed reading your thoughts.
Posted by: Margi at October 06, 2004 02:40 PM (MAdsZ)
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I don't know if the VP's couldn't direct questions to each other. Besides I really doubt that Bush could back out of the last two debates and save face. His failures of his administration and his failed debate would make it look real bad if he dropped them. So, truthfully Kerry and Edwards don't really have to follow the rules. Then again Bush broke the rules when he went to war. I just want to know what is Bush afraid of, that he had to write up so many rules, and didn't want to talk to the 9-11 commision. I seriously think he is hiding something that still hasn't come out yet. Think Watergate.
Posted by: Sean Carter at October 06, 2004 03:17 PM (T+5Co)
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The "new" annika doesn't get involved in comment debates.
oh what the hell...
Sean said:
I really doubt that Bush could back out of the last two debates and save face. His failures of his administration and his failed debate would make it look real bad if he dropped them.What are you smoking dude? Has any rational person suggested that Bush back out of the last two debates?
And i simply can't follow the logic which leads you to conclude that "
truthfully Kerry and Edwards don't really have to follow the rules." Oh i get it, they're democrats and the rules never apply to democrats. (See recent disputed elections in FL, NJ, MO, CA etc.)
I just want to know what is Bush afraid of, that he had to write up so many rulesThe rules were agreed upon by both campaigns. You could just as easily ask what Kerry is afraid of, since his campaign agreed to the rules.
I seriously think [Bush]
is hiding something that still hasn't come out yet.Actually, i know what Bush is hiding "that still hasn't come out yet":
it's yo momma!
Posted by: annika! at October 06, 2004 05:40 PM (txBoO)
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October 01, 2004
Debate One Deconstruction - Substance
Last night John Kerry said "The president just talked about Iraq as a center of the war on terror. Iraq was not even close to the center of the war on terror before the president invaded it."
If Kerry thinks Afghanistan is the real center of the War on Terror, it occurs to me that Iraq is just on the other side of Iran. Maybe that's not close enough for Kerry, but i think Iraq is definitely in the right neighborhood. And that's why Iraq is so important.
Kerry also said: ". . . I would not take my eye off of the goal: Osama bin Laden. Unfortunately, he escaped in the mountains of Tora Bora."
If you examine Kerry's insistence on finding Osama as the real goal of the War on Terror, you'll see the central flaw in his thinking. He still looks at this conflict as a law enforcement and containment problem. i believe most Americans realize we can't play that game anymore, just as most Europeans think that the law enforcement model is the only possible solution.
Europeans think that way because they lack the military strength for any alternative strategy. We don't suffer from that limitation. We can fix the problem of terrorism with a real long term solution. Our might allows us to do what the Europeans cannot. Like Bush said, it's hard work, but it's not an impossible task for Americans.
But Kerry thinks like a European; we all know that. He's an internationalist at the core, and always has been. Despite his hawkish double-talk, he mistrusts the use of American power the same way Europeans do. We - and i mean you and i - can't afford to mistrust our own power. The stakes are too high now.
Why? Because our enemy wants to kill us.
This is a new kind of war. Our enemy isn't like Imperial Japan in WWII. They don't want access to oil so they can create a new Greater East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere.
Our new enemy's goal is much simpler: They want all Americans to die.
Capturing Osama will not solve the problem of terrorism. The bad guys will still have the capability and the desire to kill Americans, with or without Osama. John Kerry must not win because if he is elected, we will lose our focus on the real goal of the War on Terror.
The real focus is long term. It is the transformation of the Islamic world. The only way - the only way - we can stop this enemy is to change the societies in which they live into free and democratic societies.
If the Islamic world does not change, we will be forever on defense in the War on Terror. Bringing democracy and freedom to Iraq is the first step in a long term strategy to protect America from future 9/11s. That's what i mean by being on offense.
John Kerry and his followers miss that very important point. They would have us abandon Bush's strategic goal and substitute the short term tactical goal of hunting down the sick and probably dying Osama bin Ladin. Not that we shouldn't bring him to justice, but it won't solve the problem of terrorism. Bush's strategy is designed to be a permanent solution.
Hugh Hewitt wrote:
Would the many terrorist attacks since 9/11 in Bali, Madrid, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Beslan and elsewhere have occurred had the United States focused all of its efforts on Afghanistan? Yes. Would Zarqawi still be roaming freely throughout Iraq and the middle east, building his parallel networks? Yes. Would killing Osama at Tora Bora have stopped the Islamist fanatics around the globe? No.
John Kerry does not understand the enemy. He does not understand the war we are in, or how it must be waged. He doesn't understand the reason Libya disarmed. He doesn't get what's going on at all.
Kerry calls Iraq the wrong war in the wrong place at the wrong time? Sorry Kerry, President Bush was right (even when he flubbed the line) when he said "It's not a grand diversion, this is an essential that we get it right."
One more point. Despite Kerry's occasional hawkishness, don't forget that something like seventy percent of Kerry's support comes from the ant-war left. That's a big umbrella that contains few reasonable people, and a lot of kooks. We cannot allow Kerry to open the government up to this anti-American fifth column, which he will undoubtedly do. Remember, he was one of them once.
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Kerry may talk about Afghanistan, but...I remember that, before the Afghan war started, very large numbers of leftists were against it, using terms like "genocide" (to refer to what the Americans were about to do, not what the Taliban was already doing.) As you point out, these people are a key part of Kerry's base. Would a Kerry administration, had it been in power, do what needed to be done in Afghanistan? I think it's highly questionable.
Posted by: David Foster at October 01, 2004 08:56 PM (XUtCY)
2
I tend to think that even a Kerry Administration would have done the right thing in Afghanistan, more or less. I say more or less because the knee-jerk political reaction may have been to immediately fire a few missiles to blow up a few empty tents and hit a camel in the
ass, rather than to take our time and do the job right.
Posted by: Xrlq at October 01, 2004 11:54 PM (6DLYC)
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my question is when do the country fully commit to the war effort. This must be done I think.
Posted by: Dex at October 02, 2004 12:53 PM (eEvJi)
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All his life up to 2002, Kerry has shown himself to be a pacifist.
Under no circumstance, will Kerry use the military. He was very consistent up until he started his campaign.
In 2003 Kerry started his war talk so that he would have a chance to be elected. Since then Kerry has vacillated between being a warlord and a pacifist-hence the flip-flopping. This week he is a pacifist-his true self.
Posted by: Jake at October 02, 2004 02:29 PM (h4tU8)
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What's the problem here?
I feel so much safer with the thought that if North Korea or Iran threatens us, President Kerry will call a summit to solve the problem. Those guys will cave in when he brings out his spitballs and protesters.
Don't you all feel warm and fuzzy at that prospect? He can also talk them to death; wait until he unloads the Senatespeak and reverts to his Boston Brahmin nasal superior accent. They'll line up to surrender.
Posted by: shelly s. at October 03, 2004 01:24 PM (s6c4t)
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