May 31, 2006

Change Of Course Or A Poison Pill?

I'm amazed at the naivety of some media pundits regarding Condoleeza Rice's proposal to the Iranians. It's being trumpeted as a major change in U.S. foreign policy. It is not that at all. Here is what she said:

The positive and constructive choice is for the Iranian regime to alter its present course and cooperate in resolving the nuclear issue, beginning by immediately resuming suspension of all enrichment-related and reprocessing activities, as well as full cooperation with the IAEA and returning to implementation of the Additional Protocol which would provide greater access for the IAEA. This path would lead to the real benefit and longer-term security of the Iranian people, the region, and the world as a whole.

. . .

Thus, to underscore our commitment to a diplomatic solution and to enhance the prospects for success, as soon as Iran fully and verifiably suspends its enrichment and reprocessing activities, the United States will come to the table with our EU-3 colleagues and meet with IranÂ’s representatives.

Iran has stated publicly that they have no intention of giving up their right to process uranium. Today they repeated the assertion:
The Iranian news agency said Iran accepts only proposals and conditions that are in the nation's interest. "Halting enrichment definitely doesn't meet such interests[.]"
They've reiterated their insistence on nuclear research countless times. In fact, they've already called Rice's overture "a propaganda move."

Well, of course, it is.

You see, Rice's proposal contains a poison pill -- a condition designed to be unacceptable to the Iranians. Upon Iran's rejection of the offer, we can re-claim the rhetorical high ground we lost when Ahmadi-Nejad sent that stupid letter. We are attempting to regain the "initiative," which is a military analogy that means that we're trying to control the game by placing our opponent on the defensive.

Iran either accepts the conditions or they don't. Either way it's a win-win for us. If they accept the conditions, we gain time to promote regime change from within (assuming the Bush administration takes my advice). If they reject the offer, we gain leverage with our allies and public opinion (assuming we spin it right). Or, you can look at it another way: if the Iranians agree to stop enrichment, they would look really bad if they started it up again for any reason.

Look, regime change is the ultimate goal here and everyone should know this. Ahmadi-Nejad is a bigger nutcase than Saddam ever was, and infinitely more dangerous. We cannot be safe as long as Iran is controlled by religious extremists who hate us. Democracy in Iran is the necessary next step in any permanent solution to the problem of Islamic terrorism.

If you look at what we did to set up Saddam Hussein, you'll see we used the same poison pill method. On the eve of war, we proposed a multi-layered ultimatum which Saddam could not possibly have satisfied. He tried submitting a 12,000 page Declaration of Compliance, but of course that hastily prepared document never had a chance. And the ultimate result is that Saddam is now in prison instead of ruling Iraq.

Now, in the case of Iran, we need to manuever them into a position where we can take out the regime without using the military option. At least I hope that's the plan, because attacking Iran's nuclear facilities in the near future would be politically disastrous, if not technically unfeasible.

But the Iranians have a poison pill of their own, which they haven't yet trotted out. It's called the "security gaurantee" card. When the time is right, they will play it, don't worry. Iran will demand that we give them the same assurance we once gave to Castro: that we won't try to overthrow the current government. As I pointed out above, regime change should be our ultimate goal, and therefore we must never agree to that condition. If Iran plays the security guarantee card effectively, they may regain the rhetorical advantage unless we are ready to counter it.

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May 30, 2006

Iran News

From AP:

Iran's foreign minister said Tuesday that Tehran is ready to restart negotiations with the European Union on its nuclear program, but he ruled out direct talks with the United States.

"I announce that Iran is ready to respond positively to the call" made by the Nonaligned Movement "for resuming the negotiations on Iran's nuclear issue without any preconditions," Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki told reporters.

"Accordingly, I would announce our readiness to restart immediately the negotiations with the EU Three to resolve the issues," he said, referring to Britain, France and Germany.

The announcement raised hopes that Iran would react positively to a planned package of incentives meant to convince it to abandon uranium enrichment. The package has been put together by the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council plus Germany.

Come on. "Raised hopes?" Among who? I hoped that Santa Claus existed, but it didn't happen. Iran is not going to stop enriching uranium, and they are playing everybody for fools. They also announced that bilateral talks with the U.S. are out. Like that was going to do any good anyway. But maybe we can stop hearing about how we're the bad guys 'cause we don't want to talk to them.

You wait. Negotiations will start again, then in a few months the Iranians will either break it off or do something that will cause us to stop talking and spend another five months ramping up for a security council meeting. This cycle can go on as long as they need it to. Diplomacy alone cannot succeed here. If the goal is to stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons, only regime change can solve the problem.

Here is the real reason why the Iranians want to talk now. They have run into some technical problems that they need to sort out.

Diplomats, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the topic's political delicacy, say that Iranian engineers stopped pouring a raw form of uranium, called UF6, into arrays of centrifuges after just 12 days, even as the nation erupted in celebrations of the enrichment feat. The reports, which have now been widely circulated, say the Iranians kept the empty centrifuges spinning, as is standard practice because slowing the delicate machines can cause them to wobble and crash.

. . .

[O]n April 11 . . . the Iranians announced that they had enriched uranium to the low levels needed to fuel a nuclear reactor. They depicted the achievement as just the start of a sprint. "Our young scientists are working day and night," Gholamreza Aghazadeh, who is in charge of Iran's Atomic Energy Agency, told an Iranian television interviewer the next day. "People are shocked and surprised that this has happened so quickly."

Then, on April 28 in Vienna, the International Atomic Energy Agency reported that the Iranians were assembling two more cascades, or strings of centrifuges, each consisting of 164 machines. On May 17, David Albright, the president of the Institute for Science and International Security, a research group in Washington that tracks the Iranian program, told Congress that those cascades were expected to start operating in May and June, respectively.

But in an interview last week, a diplomat close to the international watchdog agencies disclosed that the atomic agency would report soon that the Iranians had made little progress on the new cascades.

That would be a setback, at least as measured by Iran's declared intentions. It has said the pilot plant is to hold a total of six cascades made up of 984 centrifuges — a goal nuclear analysts expected Iran to achieve later this year. They see that as roughly the minimum number of centrifuges Iran would need to enrich enough uranium to make a single bomb. Analysts say that if the complicated plant worked reliably and efficiently, and if Tehran decided to throw out the inspectors and abandon its obligations under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, using the cascades to make fuel for a nuclear weapon would take a little more than two years.

Whoa, what happened to the ten year estimate everybody's been throwing around?

And here's the quote of the day, from a German:

"They've cracked the code," one senior German official said last week. "We're kidding ourselves if we think we are going to deny them the knowledge" of how to produce nuclear fuel.
He's right. That's why regime change is the only answer.

Iran is clear on one thing. They will not stop enrichment, even if the negotiations begin anew, and even if the EU offers the incentive package that's been floated.

"They say that they want to give us incentives. They think that they can take away our gold and give us some nuts and chocolate in exchange," hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said earlier this month.

"We don't need incentives. There is no need to give us incentives, just don't try to wrong us," he said.

"Or stop us," he might have said.

Update: Tod Lindberg of the Washington Times makes the case for negotiation. The central focus of any negotiation with Iran is to answer to these questions:

Is there anything Iran wants more than a nuclear weapon? If so, is what Iran wants instead in any sense reasonable? If what Iran wants is not reasonable, is there anything reasonable that Iran would accept in exchange for a verifiable end to its nuclear program? The answer to those questions may be "no," "no" and "no." But we would be better served by demonstrating that the answers are "no" than simply by assuming and asserting they are.
Put me in the camp with those who think negotiation is futile. Ultimately futile, but worthwhile if we use it to our advantage like the Iranians are currently doing. You see the Iranians negotiate in bad faith to buy time. But we need time too. We need it to stir up internal unrest, promote internal division and opposition to the mullahs, and then covertly support a counter-revolution. It's the only way, short of the military option, that we can ever be sure of stopping the Iranian bomb.

So I say yeah, negotiate. Put on a good show, but we sure as hell better be doing something else too while we still have options. I worry that the Bush administration is not able or willing to multi-task like the Reagan administration was. A linear strategy like: "First try diplomacy, then if that doesn't work try sanctions, then if that doesn't work..." is a losing strategy. Reagan's offensive was multi-faceted and complex. We don't think of it that way because we only remember the brouhaha over the missiles. But the Bush administration really ought to be studying the Reagan model more closely.

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May 28, 2006

Another Way To Remember Memorial Day

Readers of annika's journal don't need to be reminded about Memorial Day, or what it stands for. But here's another way to honor those who died to preserve our freedom. Make your voice heard to save the Mt. Soledad Veterans Memorial Cross.

soledadcross.jpg

The Thomas More Law Center, which does such great pro bono public interest work, has prepared a letter asking the president to help preserve the Memorial Cross from efforts to destroy it by secular zealots.

I'm not exactly sure why a tiny group of chronic complainers feel so threatened by this cross and other symbols meant to honor our nation's heritage. But they won't stop until all traces of religious faith are erased from public sight. And then they'll find something else to destroy. They only reason they are succeeding is because they complain so loudly while we who disagree stay silent.

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May 25, 2006

Musical Chairs At The CIA

Newsweek has more background on the internal feud that led to Porter Goss's surprise resignation. It's an interesting story that involves a Clinton era fuck-up in Belgrade. Well, Goss thought it was a fuck-up, but CIA thought it wasn't. Goss was chair of the House Intelligence Committee at the time, and the dispute carried over into his short lived DCI term. It sounds like Goss was doomed from the start. When he was appointed to head the CIA, he inherited the same enemies he made as Intelligence Committee chairman. It was just a matter of time before he left or got kicked out.

One wonders why Bush would select Goss to a head an agency where the top guys already had an axe to grind against him. That couldn't have been the plan, since Hayden is now planning to re-hire a guy who quit because of Goss -- as Hayden's new deputy! What a mess.

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Question?

I like how critics say, "well when the Taliban were in power at least there wasn't any opium trade." Of course there wasn't, the Taliban system of law and order was extremely effective because it was extremely brutal. But if you were to suggest that the allied forces use the same brutal methods to stop the resurgence of opium growing, you'd hear, "but that's the only way these poor farmers can earn a living."

So which is it?

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May 16, 2006

I Love This...

Here's an example of media trickery in the choice of headlines. MSNBC (home of the Bush-hatin' tag team: Matthews and Olbermann) chose the following headline for their story on the president's immigration speech last night:

Bush talk of immigrant amnesty divides GOP
You might think, reading that headline, that Bush is in favor of amnesty. Yet nowhere in the story do the writers provide this important quote from the text of the speech, which might provide some important explanatory context to their headline:
[W]e must face the reality that millions of illegal immigrants are already here. They should not be given an automatic path to citizenship. This is amnesty, and I oppose it. Amnesty would be unfair to those who are here lawfully and it would invite further waves of illegal immigration.
Look, I know and you know that Bush's plan amounts to amnesty. But the press is supposed to be accurate and impartial. By crafting an inflammatory and misleading headline, and then "forgetting" to provide Bush's own disclaimer from the very speech that this story is supposed to be about, MSNBC is deliberately trying to pour gas on this GOP fire.

That's another reason why I never watch that channel.

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May 13, 2006

There's A New Sheriff In Town

And his name is Tony Snow.

New White House Press Secretary Tony Snow continued to go after the media Thursday by accusing the Associated Press and Washington Post of unfair coverage of President Bush.

Since starting his job Monday, Snow has challenged five major news outlets in a clear signal that he will be more aggressive than his mild-mannered predecessor, Scott McClellan.

. . .

This week he has hit back at The New York Times and USA Today. On Thursday, he criticized the AP for a story headlined: “Army Guard, Reserve fall short of April recruiting goals.”

The White House countered: “The Army National Guard, Air Force Reserve, and Marine Corps Reserve all have exceeded or achieved their year-to-date recruitment goals.”

The White House also pointed out that the Washington Post ran an editorial calling Bush’s tax cuts “a windfall for the rich” on Thursday, the same day the paper also published a news article saying the measure would benefit the “middle class.”

It's on muhfukkas! It is on! Ha-ha!

The following retort by CBS, after being hit by one of Snow's emails, is ROTFL ironic:

[CBS reporter Jim] Axelrod suggested he was the victim of “selective editing on the part of the White House to make their own political points.”
Selective editing?! Ohh, that's rich! Pot, meet kettle.
“Very simply, the White House is cutting and pasting to make a point, something they accuse their critics of doing constantly,” he said.
With good reason, I might add.
“I am always open to criticism,” he added, “but if the White House has a point to make, perhaps they should furnish the full and proper context.”
Well, the shoe is on the other side of the fence now, ain't it bro? Or the other foot. Or whatever. Anyway, it's about time.

I can't wait to see what will happen when Snow gives his first public briefing on Monday. It's as if he's said "I know you guys are going to give me about 15 minutes of grace time, and then you're going to go for the jugular. So why don't we just cut to the chase."

h/t to Rightwingsparkle.

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Hidden In Last Week's News...

Was something that scared me very much. And since I feel like I'm being a little paranoid, I thought I'd throw it out to you all.

You may have heard about the Danish Imam Abu Laban, who has decided to leave Denmark because of that country's supposed intolerance of Muslims. I first read about it from the Baron at Gates Of Vienna. (Now of course, the radical Imam appears to have called off the emigration.)

The Baron thought Laban's announcement was a good sign. My initial reaction was quite the opposite. I asked myself why now? This is a guy who has basically enjoyed enormous success waging jihad inside Denmark. (See Sugiero for a rundown on his nefarious activities.) He doesn't sound like the kind of guy who would skedaddle over a few rough words. Might there be some other reason Laban wants to leave Denmark now?

Remember, the major news story from last week was Ahmadinejad's letter to President Bush. Some have described this letter as a "call to Islam," which is step one in the process of declaring jihad against the west. (See Robert Spencer, Elder, IBA, LGF, etc.) I think this interpretation is correct. Especially since Ahmadinejad has acknowledged that his letter is, in fact, a call to Islam.

Remember, Iran is run by religious fundamentalists and end-of-the-world nut-jobs. They are not motivated by the same things that motivate modern rational states. Iran views itself as the vanguard of a pan-Islamic movement. They hate the U.S., they hate Israel, and they hate Denmark. (They're not too crazy about the rest of Europe either, but everything in due time.) Iran is also lying about their nuclear ambitions. They are unashamedly playing a delaying game against the west, in order to string us along until they can develop a deliverable nuclear arsenal.

I should add that Iran is executing their strategy beautifully, with a sophistication and a knowledge of its enemies' weakness that I only wish we could duplicate from our side of the conflict.

I should also add that Iran may already have one or more nuclear devices, from some other source. They could have a black market bomb (one of the missing Russian ones) or they could have bought one through a friendly nation.

Anyways, the question I'm getting at is this: Am I paranoid for thinking that the Danish Imam is making plans to leave Denmark because he knows something bad is going to happen there? And soon?

Keep your powder dry.

Update: AP reports that traces of weapons grade uranium have been found in Iran! Hat tip to California Conservative.

[c/p A Western Heart; technorati: ]

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May 10, 2006

Have I Been Out Of It?

Have I been out of it, or has this story slipped under the radar? It happened two weeks ago and I'm just hearing about it now.

Jose Manuel Pelayo-Ortega was a crazy passenger on a flight to Sacramento who claimed he had a bomb and was subdued by passengers.

I thought it was odd that, with United 93 premiering that week and all the illegal immigrant stuff in the news, that nobody seems to have reported the story! Pelayo-Ortega's hometown was not released, but I wouldn't be surprised if he was illegal. I only found 12 links on Technorati. It must have been back page stuff in the press. Is this being hushed up, or am I just out of it?

Update: Here's the Bee's story.

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May 05, 2006

Is It Time To Test This Administration For Doneness?

[The following post was posted earlier today on annika's journal backup blog, which every good A's J fan should have bookmarked.]

As everyone knows by now, CIA chief Porter Goss has resigned today, quite unexpectedly. He did so in a joint appearance with President Bush, on a Friday afternoon. Bush said something equivalent to "heck of a job Gossie" or some crap like that.

All these signs point even an unseasoned observer like myself to the following conclusion. He was probably fired.

The fact that nobody expected this, and nobody in the administration has tried to explain away the unexpectedness is also a clue. The fact that Goss's statement used the words "step aside" not "resign" may or may not be significant.

Time Magazine has a piece on the resignation, which everybody and their brother is linking to, perhaps because it's one of the first MSM contributions that at least tries to piece together some background. Read it here.

Captains Quarters speculates, persuasively in my opinion, that Homeland Security Advisor Frances Townsend will replace Goss. An announcement is scheduled for Monday, so we will see.

I doubt that the speculation regarding hookers and "Duke" Cunningham, even if true, would be the reason for so sudden a resignation. I could be wrong, but isn't it a bad idea to fire an important intelligence chief over sex during a time of war? If it's a bribery scandal, that's a different story. But sex? I mean, who cares if he's still able to do his job, right?

I have no clue why he might have been fired, if indeed he was. But maybe he had serious philosophical problems with the bureaucratic restructuring that was mandated by the 9/11 Commission report. I think the whole CIA is in disarray over this, and that it has been floundering from internal division and external pressures for quite some time. Goss's resignation is a symptom of the agency's dysfunction.

I never quite understood why it was a good idea to consolidate the intelligence services under an all-powerful czar. If the problem is faulty intelligence, consolidation would tend to exacerbate that problem. What we really need is redundancy. A system of competing, parallel and independent intelligence agencies should be more likely to generate good information, even if such a system were less efficient.

Again, I'm no expert, but I think the changes should have been limited to enforcement of interagency information sharing, breaking down "the wall," renewing the Patriot Act, and expelling the dead wood and anti-American moles. But creating a whole new level of bureaucracy? When has that ever been a solution to any problem?

I'd much rather have multiple guys reporting to the president on intelligence matters than one DNI chief. I don't know anything about Negroponte, he may be a stand up guy, but what if he's not? He's the only gatekeeper now. If he screws up, if he downplays some key information that later turns out to be important for instance, who's there to challenge him?

Perhaps we'll find out more this weekend about why Goss left. But sudden changes in key positions, no matter how management tries to downplay them, are never good for morale. Anyone who's ever worked in a large company knows this. Goss came into the position with a lot of fanfare, he was a former agent and was supposed to be the perfect guy to get the CIA back on track. Now he's out. I don't like what I'm seeing here, and now my morale is starting to be affected.

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May 01, 2006

The Protests: My Serious Take

I'm having fun with the protests mainly because illegal immigration is not "my issue," like it is for so many people. Living in California, I have known illegal immigrants all my life, and they have all been wonderful people. To a person, the illegals I've known came here to become American, and they love America. They shouldn't be here, but I'm not going to call them bad people. "Some of my best friends are hispanic" (including my boyfriend).

If I have to be pinned down on the issue, you can categorize me on the side of border enforcement. Just driving around today, I could see the impact of illegal immigration on quality of life. Traffic was nonexistent. And in gridlocked Sacramento, that's saying something. But there's also the well documented cost of illegal immigration to our health care and education systems. And also there's the rule of law angle. My mom immigrated legally, why shouldn't everybody else?

One thing I noticed, the hundreds of thousands of people who left work and school and flooded the streets today had about a hundred thousand different ideas about what the hell they were "protesting" about.

Watching the news tonight, it seemed that nobody marching today had a clear idea what their goal was. Some thought they were protesting Bush, unaware that he's on their side. Some wanted amnesty, unaware that Congress is about to give them just that. Most simply wanted to announce their presence to the world -- the latino version of "we're here, we're queer!"

To the organizers, today was a chance to cynically exploit a perfectly laudable sense of ethnic pride. The international communists who were behind today's demonstrations hope to turn these folks into activists. Get them marching for an ill-defined issue, make them feel as though they are victims, and the next step (they hope) will be to turn them into an army of proletarians. Yes, the holy grail of the American Socialist movement! It's not going to happen though. Today's marchers want into the American dream, not to destroy it.

The most annoying thing about the protests is how they illustrate the left's desperate desire to re-live the sixties. Journalists long to force another presidential resignation. College professors long for the days of mass rallies and sit-ins. And jobless neo-hippies just want to fight the power, whatever that might be. And all of them want the chance to re-live the civil rights movement by creating a new bandwagon to jump on: "immigrant" rights. Never mind that it's an oxymoron.

And who's to blame for the massive turnout today across the country? Well it's the Republican strategists who wanted to sneak an amnesty bill through, while still retaining plausible deniability. They inserted a penalty provision, simply to allow themselves the chance to deny that they are really for amnesty. It's a stupid idea, not only because nobody is going to pay the penalty, but also because it motivated a hell of a lot of the people in the streets today. Most illegals realize that they can't afford to pay the fine and they'd rather stay underground than either incur the penalty or be deported. If the Republicans had been more honest and dropped the pretense of an unenforceable penalty, you probably wouldn't have seen half as many people out there today.

But so what? Because the main thing I want to say about all these protests is "thank you." Thank you to the communist organizers who thought this would be a good idea for their cause. You guys just handed Republicans an early October surprise. Yes, Joe and Jane Six Pack will remember today's illustration of the direction our country is heading, and they will try to put the brakes on by voting Republican in November. Sure there's a perception that Republican politicians are part of the problem, but it's still a two party system and swing voters know enough to pick the lesser of two evils.

So when the Democrats fail again to recapture Congress, they can blame the Mexican flag and el "Nuestro Himno."

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