August 30, 2004
Hitting Hard
The "old media" tomorrow will be saying that the Republicans went "negative" on the first night of the convention.
To that i say: "yesssssss!"
Politics is not a knitting club.
The Democrats are upset because a few delegates are wearing band-aids to mock Kerry's purple heart wounds. They want the RNC to crack down on this "inexcusable" behavior.
i say okay. Just as soon as the DNC cracks down on the "Bush=Hitler" signs outside. And the "Bush=Evil" signs inside MSG.
Until then, why not enjoy a nice cup of STFU, MacAuliffe.*
After Giuliani's rousing, albeit long-ass speech, Mara Liason* commented on the Michael More* moment in John McCain's equally good speech. She didn't like it. She said it was "a gift" to More and out of character for McCain.
i thought it was great, and i bet a lot of people agree with me.
So Mara, how about a nice cup of STFU for you, too.
Giuliani's speech was as if someone had translated Charles Krauthammer's address to the American Enterprise Institute into language that could resonate with the common man. And i was glad he did. It was the meat of his speech and he articulated the pro-war argument better than i've heard anyone in the administration explain it. Too bad the networks didn't cover it.
Terrorism did not start on September 11, 2001. It had been festering for many years.
And the world had created a response to it that allowed it to succeed. The attack on the Israeli team at the Munich Olympics was in 1972. And the pattern had already begun.
The three surviving terrorists were arrested and within two months released by the German government.
Action like this became the rule, not the exception. Terrorists came to learn they could attack and often not face consequences.
In 1985, terrorists attacked the Achille Lauro and murdered an American citizen who was in a wheelchair, Leon Klinghoffer.
They marked him for murder solely because he was Jewish.
Some of those terrorists were released and some of the remaining terrorists allowed to escape by the Italian government because of fear of reprisals.
So terrorists learned they could intimidate the world community and too often the response, particularly in Europe, was 'accommodation, appeasement and compromise.'
And worse the terrorists also learned that their cause would be taken more seriously, almost in direct proportion to the barbarity of the attack.
Terrorist acts became a ticket to the international bargaining table.
How else to explain Yasser Arafat winning the Nobel Peace Prize when he was supporting a terrorist plague in the Middle East that undermined any chance of peace?
Before September 11, we were living with an unrealistic view of the world much like our observing Europe appease Hitler or trying to accommodate ourselves to peaceful coexistence with the Soviet Union through mutually assured destruction.
President Bush decided that we could no longer be just on defense against global terrorism but we must also be on offense.
i liked that section. We need to be reminded of the contrast between the weak approach and the strong approach to the problem of terrorism. And i think, when given the choice, most people will opt for the strong approach, like Rudy.
i think it was a good night for us Republicans.
* Nota bene for those new visitors out there: intentionally misspelled.
Posted by: annika at
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1
You picked my favorite part of Rudy's speech. Well done.
Posted by: jake at August 30, 2004 10:04 PM (h4tU8)
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I'm almost afraid to ask, but STFU?
Posted by: wobots at August 31, 2004 06:49 AM (djVNl)
Posted by: annika! at August 31, 2004 07:27 AM (4RhLb)
Posted by: Matt at August 31, 2004 07:55 AM (CF/QI)
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I thought it was some sort of anti-mammalian thing that meant "Stop The Ferret Underworld".

I did find it ironic that, after all his efforts (along with Feingold & others) to stifle speech McCain then gives one.
& Guiliani...he speaks of the neccesity for defenidng ourselves against terrorists but did nothing to help the people of his city defend themselves against common street thugs. (i.e. his support of civilian disarmament).
McCain, Guiliani, & Krauthammer are pro-war but anti-personal self defense. I would hope they are the exceptions but odds are they are typical of what's to come from the GOP unless it changes in a hurry.
At least there'll be one real conservative who has some respect for the Right to Arms (as opposed to republican) at the convention. Unfortunately he's a democrat.
Posted by: Publicola at August 31, 2004 02:33 PM (Aao25)
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I hope the GOP stays loyal to the NRA's cause, otherwise I'll have to vote Libertarian.
Anyway, I found a link at some other blog that you might find amusing:
http://blogmosis.com/pwguest/anarch_attack.mpeg
It's a video of the anti-RNC mutants in NYC getting into fisticuffs with some of the Protest Warriors.
Posted by: reagan80 at August 31, 2004 02:58 PM (hlMFQ)
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August 15, 2004
Steyn Boils It Down
In this
Chicago Sun Times piece:
A handful of Kerry's 'band of brothers' are traveling around with his campaign. Most of the rest, including a majority of his fellow swift boat commanders and 254 swiftees from Kerry's Coastal Squadron One, are opposed to his candidacy. That is an amazing ratio and, if snot-nosed American media grandees don't think there's a story there, maybe they ought to consider another line of work. To put it in terms they can understand, imagine if Dick Cheney campaigned for the presidency on the basis of his time at Halliburton, and a majority of the Halliburton board and 80 percent of the stockholders declared he was unfit for office. More to the point, on the swift vets' first major allegation -- Christmas in Cambodia -- the Kerry campaign has caved.
i love that Halliburton analogy. And this too:
Thirty-five years on, having no appealing campaign themes, the senator decides to run for president on his biography. But for the last 20 years he's been a legislative non-entity. Before that, he was accusing his brave band of brothers of mutilation, rape and torture. He spent his early life at Swiss finishing school and his later life living off his wife's inheritance from her first husband. So, biography-wise, that leaves four months in Vietnam, which he talks about non-stop. That 1986 Senate speech is typical: It was supposed to be about Reagan policy in Central America, but like so many Kerry speeches and interviews somehow it winds up with yet another self-aggrandizing trip down memory lane.
Kerry's four brilliant months, so carefully crafted by him over the course of thirty-five years, are now disintegrating into his own "four more [months] of hell."
Re: Kerry as a "legislative non-entity," allow me to recycle an old post of mine, about Clinton's regard for that great senator from Massachussetts, John Kerry. Bill didn't have much to say, in fact.
Link via Mark at The Scrolldown.
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August 13, 2004
i Say Again, Don't Believe The Polls
Regular listeners to
Professor Hewitt's radio show are already aware of this story, but i thought i'd reiterate it with some links.
In the recent Colorado Senate primary, the pre-election buzz was that the GOP candidates, Pete Coors and Bob Schaffer, were in a statistical dead heat. In fact, AP repeated this assumption on the day of the election.
Then, Pete Coors won by a margin of 61% to 39%!
Twenty-two percentage points is a pretty decent margin of victory, and while the press avoided calling it a landslide (the Democratic candidate won his primary with 73% of the vote) i would not hesitate to call it just that.
How did the pre-election polls get it so wrong? Were the pollsters biased? Maybe not, the primary was between two Republicans, after all. Were the polling methods faulty? i don't know the details of that particular Colorado poll, but in my opinion, most polls are screwy and inaccurate by nature.
The only polls i put any stock in are Zogby's exit polls, because they've been shown to be the most accurate after the last two presidential elections.
Another problem with poll accuracy is that people who do vote are increasingly less likely to pick up the phone, thanks to telemarketing abuse. i don't think this problem necessarily favors one party over the other, but it does make the raw data suspect. And that requires the pollster to make assumptions about who is being underestimated when the pollster adjusts the numbers for "accuracy."
The point i want to make is this: i think there's a lot more support for the GOP, and specifically for Bush-Cheney, than the pollsters and the media are willing to recognize or admit. Most of the presidential polling is deliberately skewed in favor of the Democrats, in my opinion. (Dick Morris explains how the media accomplish and justify thier biased polling in his book, Off With Their Heads.) i'm not saying the pollsters are lying. i just think they overestimate the amount of Democratic support when they adjust the raw data.
The Coors election shows how wrong the polls can be. The lesson i'm hoping to extrapolate from Colorado is that in this post 9/11 era, polling and voting are two vastly different things. i think people are a lot more serious about their vote when they actually get in the booth. They may support any number of candidates during pre-election polls, but when it's time to pull the lever, i think there's a newfound tendency to lean towards the conservative side.
i'll be very interested to see if my theory holds true in November.
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Annie:
As usual, you are on point. An additional thought is the interpretation of polls.
By way of illustration, take the national polls. They reflect (or hold themselves out to reflect) the overall popular vote at any certain moment in time. But to properly interpret them, you'd need to see the state by state raw numbers, as several states are just so lopsided that the electoral vote is often times nowhere near the way the polls appear to read.
I suspect that right now, Bush is pretty far ahead in the electoral college vote, while even or a bit behind in the popular vote.
Posted by: shelly s. at August 13, 2004 11:14 AM (My8fB)
Posted by: Xrlq at August 13, 2004 11:57 AM (b/34x)
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Allah willing. I would absolutely wet myself with happiness if Bush wound up winning by a decisive margin. (actually I'll probably still wet myself if he simply wins)
Posted by: Bill from INDC at August 13, 2004 08:27 PM (hsQf4)
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So Bush makes us save when he goes to war so that we can defeat an enemy -terrorism- that he
now admits can not be defeated? Are you people for real? I guess the fact that most Republicans never graduated high school or at most attended but a single year in college is to blame for your
complete lack of logic and reason.
Posted by: Peter R. Green at September 09, 2004 03:38 PM (jHZDC)
5
Nice spelling and grammar, idiot.
Posted by: annika! at September 09, 2004 08:09 PM (AsB4V)
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August 12, 2004
Whether He Is Or Isn't Is Nobody's Business
MTV.com, a highly respected and perfectly objective news source, thinks that a certain personal lifestyle choice of New Jersey governor James McGreevey's is none of your damn business.
No, i'm not talking about his sexual preference. In fact, i'm sure they're overjoyed that McGreevey has come out of the closet.
But why won't they tell us that he's a Democrat?
Not that there's anything wrong with that . . .
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So McGreevey is a cocksucker? Name me a Democrat who isn't!
Posted by: Casca at August 12, 2004 06:04 PM (q+PSF)
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I could not have cared less - until it came out that his squeeze was on the state payroll with a six figure plus salary, and is planning to sue.
Posted by: Mark at August 12, 2004 06:26 PM (yyjwG)
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Very good post, Annika.
“But why won't they tell us that he's a Democrat?”
Obviously, you have not read the section in the Constitution dealing with freedom of the press.
The Constitution says that you must put Republican in the headline if the bad politician is a Republican. If the bad politician is a Democrat, you are not allowed to put the word Democrat any where in the story or headline.
Posted by: jake at August 12, 2004 06:58 PM (h4tU8)
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Silly me. i must not have been paying attention during my two semesters of Con History.
Posted by: annika at August 12, 2004 07:11 PM (esUbQ)
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bushs war against a nation that did not threaten America is costing us a billion dollars a day and you guys are hung up on gay love...
i am more worried about our guys who are dying in Iraq while the mullahs next door in Iran praise god for sending bush to destroy their greatest enemy. when they get done laughing at bush they go back to work on developing nukes.
Posted by: Anjin-San at August 12, 2004 08:19 PM (Ta+Sg)
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Golan Cipel is a Mossad man, and New Jersey governor Jim McGreevey is just one more victim of a Mossad honeytrap when he first met Cipel in Israel.
The homosexual relationship that probably started very early on made McGreevey, a progressive, a staunch catholic and father of two, exceptionally vulnerable to blackmail.
Surprise, surprise - Cipel found himself Governor McGreevey's Homeland Security Czar in New Jersey, a very useful and powerful position for a Mossad operative to find himself in. This appointment was made despite Cipel having no qualifications for the job, no background check being carried out and amidst tremendous resistence to the appointment.
The demand for money (always behind the jewish plots) now being talked about is smoke and mirrors to distract attention from the underlying Mossad blackmail.
If progressive Americans ever become aware of the role of Mossad in this affair the shit will really hit the fan.
You know Golan Cipel will scurry back to his jew dominants in Israel as soon as the spotlight is turned on him.
Posted by: Zizz at August 14, 2004 02:15 AM (2CBJ0)
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Hmmmm, now the Mossad angle is interesting. Perhaps they wanted to bring him down for appointing that stupid fuck Lautenberg.
Posted by: Casca at August 14, 2004 05:47 AM (q+PSF)
Posted by: annika! at August 14, 2004 09:05 AM (fxEID)
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Cipel pronouned TSI PEL as in nipple is Mossad double agent. But no need for antisemitic comments here as above. Zizz is a motherfucker. Get lost, zozz, and use your real email next time.
Love it when the antisems come out of the closet. Sad puppies.
Posted by: d at August 16, 2004 07:54 PM (tPzhx)
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August 10, 2004
Reminiscing About Jenjis
Isn't the fact that Kerry pronounced "Genghis Khan" as if it were spelled with two J's enough to disqualify him for sheer annoyingness?
Maybe not. But the full quote, considering the fact that it is a BOLDFACED LIE, is more than enough to disqualify him from getting my vote:
. . . not isolated incidents but crimes committed on a day-to-day basis with the full awareness of officers at all levels of command. . . .
They told the stories that at times they had personally raped, cut off ears, cut off heads, taped wires from portable telephones to human genitals and turned up the power, cut off limbs, blown up bodies, randomly shot at civilians, razed villages in fashion reminiscent of Genghis Khan, shot cattle and dogs for fun, poisoned food stocks, and generally ravaged the countryside of South Vietnam . . .
[emphasis added]
He used pretty specific, absolute and emphatic language to accuse every Vietnam veteran with his shameful broad brush. And i believe he spread those lies solely for reasons of selfish personal ambition.
Whether or not he was in Cambodia or whether he deserved his medals or whatever else he's being pilloried for nowadays, it's the "Winter Soldier" statement that i personally can't forgive him for.
More: Kerry is such a pompous ass, i'm surprised he didn't say "reminiscent of Temujin."
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He gave as his source for these atrocities a list of “soldiers” that he had talked to.
Not one of those “soldiers” had been in Vietnam and most of them had never been in the military. It was all made up.
This week Kerry said he got carried away and misspoke. He says this even though there are tapes of him reading his prepared speech to the Senate Committee.
Posted by: jake at August 10, 2004 05:00 PM (h4tU8)
2
What a good sign that your species is going to be so easy to conquer that some of you actually think this Kerry guy would be a good leader. Mwuhahahaha!
Dum - dum - dum - dummmmm!
Posted by: Zongo the Ruthless at August 10, 2004 05:45 PM (G5PGV)
3
Here is an example of a bold-faced lie:
John Kerry is a great guy.
Kerry's lie about Genghis Khan, by contrast, was a
bald-faced lie.
Posted by: Xrlq at August 10, 2004 05:59 PM (3AgfD)
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"But the full quote, considering the fact that it is a BOLDFACED LIE, is more than enough to disqualify him from getting my vote..."
Damn Miss Annika, I wonder if Kerry realizes how close you were to throwing your support behind him & how he blew it? I think he'd regret it if he knew you were on the fence till that quote came to your attention.
Posted by: Publicola at August 10, 2004 07:29 PM (Aao25)
5
As a fan of Bush and not Kerry, I have to admit that Bush's butchering of the English language is just as annoying. I can't believe noone on his staff has said "psst, Mr. President, its pronouced nu-clear ... not nuke-cular"
Posted by: Peter at August 10, 2004 08:16 PM (7435K)
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Peter, why did no one ask Jimmy Carter the same thing? As much as I can't stand him, could it, perhaps, do you think, have anything to do with the fact that he was an engineer on a nuclear submarine, and still pronounced it that way? That's the way the word is pronounced in the South; get over it.
Posted by: Dave J at August 11, 2004 07:08 AM (VThvo)
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Publicola, are you getting me back for that 2% joke i made? ; )
Dave J is right, Peter. i myself have heard Carter pronounce it "nucular." Like i said about Teddy Kennedy's butchering of the language, Carter gets a pass from the media because he's a democrat.
Posted by: annika at August 11, 2004 08:25 AM (zAOEU)
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on the first day of nuclear physics ('for the informed citizen,' let's not pretend i'm a smarty) our prof spent forever making sure nobody left that room saying nucular. it's a pet peeve for me too.
anyway.
annika, i feel the same way. kerry's repeated lies are no misspeak. and he's not denying any of it, or even owning up to his past like bush did over his mistakes.
the white house won't take him to task for it because bush didn't serve in vietnam at all and they don't want that to be an issue in the campaign. but the rest of us should not be afraid to condemn such blatant dishonesty.
the medals thing is because one purple heart was self inflicted and another was from a rice grain, they were all insignificant and his means of getting out early (after four and a half months). he saved jim rassman when the guy fell from his boat because john kerry was quickly running away from fire instead of sticking it out with the other boats. he's so phony it hurts, and it's not even worth keeping track of all his lies.
but his testimony is by far the lowest act.
Posted by: candace at August 11, 2004 09:47 AM (bkDNd)
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annika,
go find the Simpsons clip where the spoiled nephew (?) of Mayor Quimby forces a French waiter to repronounce the word "chowder" over and over.
"It's Chow-der, Frenchie, not Chaud-er. . . "
Posted by: jcrue at August 11, 2004 05:20 PM (G9kk0)
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August 05, 2004
August 04, 2004
The DNC's New Attempt To Reach Out To Christians
The Democratic Party
is the party of anti-Christian hatred, their false "inclusiveness" rhetoric at the convention notwithstanding.
On July 23, Democratic National Committee (DNC) Chairman Terry McAuliffe announced the appointment of Rev. Brenda Bartella Peterson as the Senior Advisor for Religious Outreach; she is an ordained minister in the Christian Church (Disciples of Christ).
According to Terry McAuliffe, this woman is supposed to reflect "the DNCÂ’s commitment to reaching all people of faith." He said (presumably with a straight face):
Brenda has dedicated her life to showing us all how religion and politics intersect with integrity . . . We are proud to have her join the DNC, in order to spread John Kerry's positive vision to people of all faiths."
Unfortunately, that's complete bullshit.
Catholic League president, Dr. William Donohue said:
Rev. Brenda Bartella Peterson was one of thirty-two clergy members to file an amicus curiae brief in behalf of Michael Newdow’s attempt to excise the words ‘under God’ from the Pledge of Allegiance. The brief shows infinitely more concern for the sensibilities of atheists like Newdow than it does for the 90 percent of Americans who believe in God. And this is the person the Democrats want to dispatch to meet with the heads of religious organizations? Are they out of their minds? Would they hire a gay basher to reach out to homosexuals? [link omitted]
Now, if you are skeptical,
here's the amicus brief. Her name's right there, on the cover page "As Amici Curiae Supporting Respondent Michael A. Newdow."
Thanks Dems. There should now be no doubt about where you stand.
Link via Bill.
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"Would you hire a gay basher to reach out to homosexuals?" I don't think that's a fair analogy, she isn't a "religion basher" she respects the rights of people to pray to a God if they don't wanna. Me too. I always tell people to replace the word God with Allah or Jesus Christ or Buddha (depending on which religion you don't practice) whereever you see it in order to get a feel for what it's like being an athiest. I like that the Dems aren't just willing to reach out to 90 percent, they are going for all 100. Woo.
Posted by: Dawn Summers at August 04, 2004 04:38 PM (sv6oS)
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Now, Annika, you know full well that you're baiting the Christian left. Plenty of Christians in this country are uncomfortable with the "under God" clause -- certainly the Mennonites and the Episcopalian hierarchy.
The Catholic League speaks for very conservative Catholics (they blast Mahony all the time here in LA, and he's hardly a raving liberal). The fact is, Christians can be found across the political spectrum. Evangelicals (especially black ones) are everywhere, including in the Democratic Part. And we will continue to be there. What it means to be a political Christian is open to debate, and we should debate it -- and fortunately, there is room in both parties for committed Christians.
Posted by: Hugo at August 04, 2004 04:57 PM (ntfdi)
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Baiting? who me? i don't even like to fish.
i'm not familiar with the Catholic League, Hugo. My first intro to them was this article. However, if they don't like Mahoney, they can't be all that bad.
Posted by: annika at August 04, 2004 05:32 PM (zAOEU)
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The Rev. Brenda represents a group that is starting to dominate mainline Protestant denominations. They are teaching philosophy of life in their churches as they regard Jesus Christ and the Bible as too judgmental.
Posted by: Jake at August 05, 2004 07:06 AM (h4tU8)
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A Pull Quote From Ron Reagan's Speech
Regarding stem cell research, at the Democratic Convention, Ron Reagan said:
[I]t does not follow that the theology of a few should be allowed to forestall the health and well-being of the many. And how can we affirm life if we abandon those whose own lives are so desperately at risk?
It is a hallmark of human intelligence that we are able to make distinctions. Yes, these cells could theoretically have the potential, under very different circumstances, to develop into human beings — that potential is where their magic lies. But they are not, in and of themselves, human beings. They have no fingers and toes, no brain or spinal cord. They have no thoughts, no fears. They feel no pain. Surely we can distinguish between these undifferentiated cells multiplying in a tissue culture and a living, breathing person — parent, a spouse, a child.
Moral relativism at its finest.
But Ron, you failed to directly answer the central question. The one question that must be answered before anyone goes tinkering around in this area. The most important question of all: Is it a human life?
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RR's statement of "the theology of a few" is bizarre. A few? What country does he think he lives in?
Posted by: Nice Guy Eddie at August 04, 2004 01:50 PM (gNmoD)
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i think he's saying that if it has no human body, no human nervous system, no human biostasis... that it's not a living human.
if it's not a living human, then it's not a human life.
i believe the logical syllogism is:
only living humans (i.e. entities which have...[see list above]) have human life.
this stem cell is not a living human.
therefore, this is not a human life.
this is the same syllogism that is used to justify abortion, of course. in the case of abortion, the problem arises in deciding when dividing cells reach a point where they constitute a human body.
Posted by: wegglywoo at August 04, 2004 04:48 PM (seI9v)
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August 03, 2004
Firefighters, Cops And Regular Guys
From NRO,
a column by a Los Angeles Police officer makes the following points:
[C]ops and firefighters are inherently conservative in that they understand the importance of following society's rules. Unlike John Kerry, they don't find 'nuance' in every question that confronts them. In their daily duties they see the often-deadly consequences that result when people fail to do what society expects of them. Nearly every call to 9-1-1 is the result of someone concluding that these rules, be they the criminal laws or the fire codes, can be ignored. They did a good job of hiding it last week, but the Democrats are the party of libertinism, the price of which is well known to those who come when people call for help.
Second, cops and firefighters are, if the women in the ranks will forgive the expression, Regular Guys. They drink beer, not wine, and certainly not French wine. They played football and baseball in high school, not lacrosse. Regular Guys think Al Sharpton is a fraud and Michael Moore (who pretends to be a Regular Guy) is a fool, and they think Ted Kennedy is a criminal. Regular Guys do not blame Secret Service agents (who are Regular Guys) for knocking them down on the ski slopes, especially when those agents are there to take bullets for them. And Regular Guys relate to and prefer the company of other Regular Guys; they do not invite people like Leonardo DiCaprio and Ben Affleck to their conventions.
Even with the piles of dough they're sitting on, both George Bush and Dick Cheney still come across as Regular Guys, the kind of men you might find hanging around the fire station or the detective squad room. And with his recent suggestion to Pat Leahy on how he might spend his idle time, the vice president climbed several notches on the Regular Guy scale. John Kerry, on the other hand, owing to his valorous service in Vietnam, might have been a Regular Guy years ago, but he surrendered his membership when he came home to join the Jane Fonda crowd and brand his former comrades as war criminals. And whatever tenuous grip he may have had on Regular Guy status since then was lost when he married his current wife. Old-fashioned notions of chivalry prevent me from offering my full opinion on her here, but Regular Guys do not under any circumstances marry women like Teresa Heinz Kerry.
i would only add that John Kerry was never a regular guy, even when he was on that swift boat.
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Regular Guys donÂ’t get 3 Purple Hearts for three bandages placed over three scratches. Regular Guys have to spend weeks in a hospital before they get a Purple Heart.
Posted by: Jake at August 03, 2004 12:09 PM (h4tU8)
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"Unlike John Kerry, they don't find 'nuance' in every question that confronts them"...I think that the kind of work people do has an immense influence on their political and philosophical beliefs. People who work with things that are "real" and inflexible--farmers, machinists, engineers--don't tend to worship nuance. This *doesn't* mean that they don't understand it. An aeronautical engineer knows well that there is no perfectly good design; that there are "shades of gray" and tradeoffs among many factors....but he also knows that at some point the tradeoffs must be resolved, decisions must be made, and metal must be cut. People who spend their entire lives in a purely verbal environment often fail to recognize this.
I think the "lifestyle" factors (beer vs wine, etc) are secondary to this factor.
Posted by: David Foster at August 03, 2004 02:38 PM (XUtCY)
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I'm a full-time fireman at a fairly large city (250k), and I'm also one of the ones that actually goes into fires. Sadly, my city is one of those liberal stains on the map, and I'd guess a full half of our dept (about 400 FFs) falls into the Kerry column.
Unfortunately, of those voting for Kerry, the overwhelming majority of them are just voting lockstep. Most of them are actually conservative, just as Dunphy implies, but at the same time couldn't imagine voting for Bush. It's a sad reality that the union mentality (or lack thereof) has brainwashed these men.
If these guys (and their civilian counterparts) could resolve the internal conflict of BEING conservative, but THINKING of themselves as democrats, the GOP would win by a landslide. Every time. Only fear mongering and demagoguery keeps the Kerry (or Gore, in the past) troops in line.
As for me, I was a Republican long before I got this job ten years ago, and it never occurred to me to vote the IAFF party line. I even have a "Firefighters for Bush" bumper sticker on my truck. Incidentally, IAFF never inquired as to my party affiliation. Asshats.
Incidentally, regular guy that I am, I can appreciate beer AND wine.
Posted by: Andy at August 03, 2004 09:01 PM (bpH79)
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Heavens. I am certainly not a regular guy, but I think a lot of any man who is willing to marry a strong, opinionated, spunky woman like THK. In terms of a conversation partner, I'd rather be married to her than Laura Bush (based on what I can tell!)
Posted by: Hugo at August 04, 2004 08:55 AM (ntfdi)
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"Opinionated" is good, but only when the individual has thought seriously and deeply about their opinions...otherwise, it is just blather. Opinionated human beings--male or female--are not rare at all; what is much rarer is the individual who (a)listens to others and (b)thinks seriously and self-critically about their own opinions.
Posted by: David Foster at August 04, 2004 12:44 PM (E+yz/)
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I'm sure JK can tap into an infinite supply of patience, understanding and nuance just by thinking fondly of 500+ million dollars.
Posted by: Andy at August 05, 2004 06:54 AM (bpH79)
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Find the whole truth:
http://www.regularguysforbush.org
http://www.cheesesteakveteransfortruth.org
Posted by: REgular Joe at October 15, 2004 05:58 AM (AaBEz)
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July 29, 2004
Democratic Finale, Final Thoughts
. . . Something is terribly wrong with the way we teach history in this country when Max Cleland can mispronounce the name of Crispus Attucks and yet be interrupted by applause, while the crowd sits on their hands after he invokes the name of Paul Revere in the very next sentence . . .
. . . Kerry saved a hamster? LOL, now we know why Richard Gere is supporting him . . .
. . . Kerry's daughter was allowed to broach the subject of abortion, because she represents a democratic constituency largely made up of one issue voters: single women . . .
. . . "John Kerry reporting for duty?" Puleeeeze! They're laying it on so thick. Someone should have edited that line out of there. It's way too over the top . . .
. . . Kerry's energy is way up. He's been rehearsing. He'll get good reviews for style, simply because many pundits expected a worse delivery . . .
. . . Funny, he implies that the Republicans have taken the flag away from the Democrats as a symbol of patriotism. The way i see it, the Democrats abandoned the flag as a symbol when they became the party of flag burners. This from a guy who threw his medals away . . .
. . . i can't reconcile Kerry's promise to ensure that we have the best equipped military with his vote on the eighty-seven billion. Can you? . . .
. . . Kerry says that America has never fought a war because we wanted to, only because we had to. That is patently and demonstrably false. The most obvious and notable example being the war he will never let us forget he fought in. But also Korea, WWI, The Spanish American War and The Mexican War . . .
. . . The "we are on God's side" jab is getting huge applause. It's a pretty effective rhetorical jab. And a cheap shot. The anti-Christians in the audience are lovin' it . . .
. . . Balloons and confetti. Sammy Hagar is singing "we'll get higher and higher!" Is this a subliminal way of signaling their position on legalization? . . .
. . . It's appropriate that this convention was held at Fleet Center, because if Kerry wins, it's going to feel like we just got one of these . . .
Posted by: annika at
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There's some interesting positions between the speeches and the platform.
Edwards: And we will have one clear unmistakable message for al Qaida and the rest of these terrorists. You cannot run. You cannot hide. And we will destroy you.
The platform criticizes Bush for "unilateral preemption" but in the next paragraph states "we will never wait for a green light from abroad when our safety is at stake" {which implies we're not going to be just punitive in response to an attack, but be preemptive before an attack}
Kerry said we'll exhaust all our options but reiterated the point we're not dependent on any other nation or organization to approve the use of force.
I'm sure nobody is under the illusion of how the country uses its special forces and now we'll double that capability..
The platform goes on to say a nuclear-armed Iran is an unacceptable risk to us (and our allies) - so what a happens when Iran backs out of attempts by the international community to monitor and inspect their nuclear program..this is setting up a dilemma unless Kerry thinks "unacceptable risk" and "our safety is at stake" are not equivalent.
I estimate the military spending based on rough Pentagon numbers for the increase in soldiers and Spec Forces and "state of the art" equipment (which I'm assuming means the shortfall in what the services have asked for but were not funded) to be around 15B a year....and that doesn't include the plus ups necessary to enable the Coast Guard (which is under Homeland Defense) or other organizations to secure seaports and borders.
No mention of gun control in the platform while the 2000 one had several paragraphs on that topic..
One very brief mention on abortion rights while the 2000 platform had a lengthy discussion to include a position on ideology any nominee to the SCOTUS would have to have..
This year's platform includes seeking more diverse sources of oil both abroad AND here at home..while the 2000 platform specifically put the veto on ANWR and California coast drilling..
I wondering if some of the delegates thought they were at the wrong convention..
Posted by: Col Steve at July 29, 2004 09:05 PM (DIN0n)
Posted by: Dex at July 29, 2004 10:23 PM (sQs/5)
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Its impossible to reconcile a lot of things- but especially Kerry's promise to ensure that we have the best equipped military. He has consistently worked to shrink the size of the military and the CIA throughout his Senate career.
Gov Ed Rendell cracked me up with this-
"John Kerry didn't abandon the fight in the Mekong Delta, and he won't abandon the fight now."
When I was a kid, the older teenagers used to try to buy beer at 7/11's. If a clerk questioned their age, their running joke was to pull their shades low and say "Nobody questioned my age in the Mekong Delta."
Posted by: gcotharn at July 29, 2004 11:22 PM (My8fB)
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Kerry basically said: I've been in a war, I support the successful wars of America's past and I will win this with war and bring along France because of the sheer force of my personality -- which is basically "I'm not Bush". Well John Kerry needs all the Hope he can get. Pretty soon, and pretty clearly, folks will see through the centrist spin to the liberal record, which is the core of Kerry's waffle-shaped heart.
Posted by: Scof at July 30, 2004 01:45 AM (+kSRT)
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Q: What do pro-abortion activists have in common with their children?
A: They’re both single-issue voters.
Posted by: David Boxenhorn at July 30, 2004 03:19 AM (a6ToG)
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Col Steve, do you have a link for the platform?
The democratic candidates' sudden shift rightward is notable not only for the obvious reason that their most vocal supporters are so far to the left, but also it signals that their internal polling and focus groups have been telling them what i have always believed: Americans are not as liberal as the press, the universities and the kooky professional protesters would have us believe.
Posted by: annika! at July 30, 2004 09:01 AM (zAOEU)
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I didn't see the shift to the right, except for a thin veneer of grasping after military credibility. He threw in every leftist platitude from the last 70 years, and a kitchen sink.
This repeated line of his speech inspired me, but not in the way he intended, I'm sure (be sure to follow the link):
"We can do better, America, and help is on the way."
Posted by: John Lanius at July 30, 2004 09:30 AM (Hs4rn)
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I didn't see it as a shift to the right at all, he continued to reiterate the idea that the role of government shouldn't be to dole out giveaways to wealthy. Obviously, whoever's in office will protect the country from attack, the key is what else are they going to do for us and I think Kerry is the best choice for that.
Posted by: Dawn Summers at July 30, 2004 10:23 AM (HLOeu)
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Great recap... although Dawn, you clearly weren't watching your coverage on Fox, where the Dems admitted (in not so many words) that it is actually a shift to the right.
Posted by: candace at July 30, 2004 10:47 AM (j/3i4)
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It's not an actual shift in policy, it's a shift in presentation. And it's not evidenced by addition so much as by subtraction. They didn't talk about stuff that might be scary to swing voters, making it seem like Kerry is more centrist than his voting record shows.
And i disagree that both parties will protect the country equally. Kerry obviously will respond to another terrorist attack, i have no doubt. The difference is GWB is playing on offense, while i think Kerry will emphasize defense.
Posted by: annika! at July 30, 2004 11:40 AM (zAOEU)
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It is about offense v defense, and its also about a policy of force and strength v a policy of dialogue, trade, and economic incentive. I've posted about it here- http://theendzone.blogspot.com/2004/07/personal-style-part-ii.html
At its very deepest roots, its a disagreement about the nature of the threat, and the disagreement is spiced by differing moral principles.
Posted by: gcotharn at July 30, 2004 12:22 PM (My8fB)
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Read the 2004 platform (it's in PDF)
http://www.democrats.org/platform/
and then read the 2000 platform
http://www.democrats.org/about/2000platform.html
Yes, Kerry threw in a lot of promises he knows he doesn't control or left unclear how he'll
keep them - not that politicians don't do that, but he mave have difficulty because it's usually the 2d and 3rd tier political appointees that determine both the agenda and the execution of policies in the executive branch organizations and I suspect the majority of those folks would be more to the left than the direction implied by the platform.
These parts of his speech may come back to bite him:
"I ask you to judge me by my record." And after 19 years in the Senate, he lists only 3 items (balanced budget, 100k police initiative, and POW-MIA accounting).
"You don't value families if you force them to take up a collection to buy body armor for a son or daughter in the service"
Yet, I suspect GWB campaign will run those words and right after the fact Kerry voted for the war BUT against the 87B funding bill which included the funding for more soldier body armor and more up-armored HMMWVs.
Or, to see what the GOP may be planning as rebuttal:
http://www.demsextrememakeover.com/072904Kerrymemo.asp
Posted by: Col Steve at July 30, 2004 01:41 PM (DmFF+)
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I may have said this before, but Kerry has this interesting gap in the biography he presents to the public, and after the convention you would still not know this. It goes: Vietnam hero; Vietnam protester; prosecutor; Senator. Absolutely NEVER any mention of his tenure as Lieutenant Governor under...who was that again? Oh yeah, Mike Dukakis. I suppose that might not exactly the best selling point to middle America, but it's so conspicuous by its absence that I'd say it borders on a lie of omission.
Posted by: Dave J at July 30, 2004 02:24 PM (VThvo)
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That Fleet thing is pretty funny. I used to work at a drug store and I had to dust the products. It was always funny dusting the enema products.
You make good points. Kerry is just as much as a warmongering slim as your man Bush is. Another vote for Nader from me.
Posted by: fairest at August 01, 2004 08:47 AM (9iOuY)
Posted by: annika at August 02, 2004 08:25 AM (zAOEU)
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July 28, 2004
Edwards' Speech
Tonight i realized that i could really like John Edwards. Not just because he's a good speaker (not quite as polished as Clinton, but he's getting there), but because
his speech tonight was worthy of a Republican. No really. Change a few details, tone down the "two Americas schtick, and i could totally imagine GWB giving the same speech.
Edwards was patriotic, he praised the sacrifices of our armed forces with sincerity, and he talked about the everyday struggles of the average American without promising a Clintonesque shitload of handouts. His solution to the problem of outsourcing sounded reasonable to me. i liked what i heard. Didn't believe him for a moment. But i liked what i heard.
Edwards' speech was most notable for what was left out. And that got me thinking. Why is everybody applauding and going crazy over him? Perhaps because he's not Bush or Cheney. Because he definitely omitted everything that today's democrat really cares about.
The word "abortion" did not appear, nor did he mention "a woman's right to choose." He never mentioned gay marriage. He never said the Iraq war was a mistake, or that it was illegal, or that we should get out. He never equated Abu Ghraib with Saddam's atrocities. In fact, the most surprising line of the night was this:
And we will have one clear unmistakable message for al Qaida and the rest of these terrorists. You cannot run. You cannot hide. And we will destroy you. [emphasis mine]
Not "stop you," not "hunt you down," not "bring you to justice." He said "destroy." That's real tough talk, and i can do nothing but applaud him for it, even while i seriously doubt Kerry's ability to improve on the strategy we have been pursuing for three years already.
It's real interesting that Edwards would give such a patriotic pro-war speech when, as Peter Comejo pointed out on the Hogue show this morning, ninety five percent of the delegates in the audience are anti-war, think the war was a mistake and want us to get out immediately. Yet they cheered Edwards words as loudly as a bunch of Republicans would. i guess "anyone but Bush" is really all that matters to them. Edwards could have gotten up there and promised to attack France and they would have raised the roof.
Many, i would say most, die-hard modern Democrats are drawn to the party over only a handful of issues. Compassion issues are part of it, like gay marriage and affirmative action. But there's also fear and hatred issues. Fear of losing the ability to have abortions. Hatred of Christianity, traditional Judaism and the standards of behavior those faiths represent.
That's why i can't understand why Edwards would have the audacity to close his speech with the words "Thank you, God bless you and God bless the United States of America!" But i am not surprised to see that the "official" text of the speech on the John Kerry for President website omits the final eight words. The substantial "Newdow wing" of the party might have let that offensive Republican sounding line slide last night, but they certainly wouldn't want it memorialized in print forever.
Update: Don't believe me? Listen to Jonah Goldberg, he saw this coming.
This is the logic of hate. It lets convention delegates who by every measure are far to the left of the mainstream of the Democratic Party, let alone the American public, cheer a candidate who has spent the past few months holding something of a fire sale on Democratic principles. According to a New York Times survey of delegates, 9 out of 10 say they think Iraq was a mistake and 5 out of 6 say the war on terrorism and national security aren't that important; yet Kerry is surrounding himself with soldiers to the point where it wouldn't be shocking if delegates were required to wear camo fatigues. Even Ted Kennedy would be hard-pressed to play a drinking game in which players had to swig every time the words "Vietnam" or "war hero" come up in Democratic speeches.
Kerry's waxing philosophic about how life begins at conception, but the activists still wear abortion-on-demand buttons. And the delegates serve as little more than an infomercial studio audience who applaud on cue, just as they would if Ron Popeil demonstrated how his new gadget makes curly fries in just a few seconds. The point of this Potemkin unity is to seduce moderates and swing voters into believing that Kerry's their guy.
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Maybe it was the many times he said "I wanna talk", maybe it was the saturation of populist themes or that hint of grandstanding I hear in the cadence of his speech. Regardless, one thing I am sure of is that John Edwards thinks we're stupid. Last night he gave nearly every inconsistent and ill-thought reason why we should convict Bush, as if the sheer volume of words would be enough. Then he tried to sell some fiction of some hard-up mom out in hard-up America whose husband got sent to hard-up Iraq. I'm sorry but that was a flub and I liked it better anyway when Matthew McConaughey delivered it in A Time To Kill.
Then he ended it all with a meaningless chant of "Hope". The only hope of the DNC delegates is rooted in their dislike of Bush. The hope of the Kerry campaign is that they can pull off appearing centrist despite having one of the most liberal tickets ever. How these hopes bear fruit will reflect just how right John Edwards is about our stupidity.
Posted by: Scof at July 29, 2004 09:35 AM (XCqS+)
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I don't see how that neo-Bolshevik class warfare, it's hard to get ahead, the government is here to give you a handout crap could be seen as anything other than the tax-and-spend liberalism of the past. He's appalling. He basically says socialist nonsense with a smiley face. There's nothing conservative in his agenda; he thinks the government is there to help people avoid the struggle of living in a competitive economy. Sell that shit in France.
The only thing they really say about the military and foreign policy is they'll give the troops a pay raise and that they'll charm Europe into sending its nonexistent troops to help us. It's like waving a magic wand. These are not at all serious people.
Posted by: roach at July 29, 2004 11:36 AM (DHoAQ)
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Wrong. Annika. Edwards was a total liberal boob. Sorry, but I'm gonna have to disagree with ya on this one...
Posted by: Jason H. at July 29, 2004 12:02 PM (0pVR8)
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I agree with roach. These are not serious people. Another thing, the "Two Americas" speech is inherently contradictory. The wealthy keeps the middle-class and poor down? Please. What about Barack Obama? Bill Clinton? And, let's not forget the son of a mill worker (supervisor) by the name of John Edwards. All started relatively poor (if that) and ended up incredibly wealthy. If anything, they should be embracing the can-do spirit of this country, not playing smiley, slick class-warfare.
Posted by: Blake at July 29, 2004 01:03 PM (aCDxI)
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i should clarify. i didn't say his speech was worthy of a "conservative." i said "Republican" and i meant Republican in the way the GWB understands it, which is basically what a Democrat used to be a few decades ago. That's in addition to the fact that Edwards' speech should not be taken at face value. If elected, Kerry will do just what we conservatives fear he will do. He is a liberal in the worst sense of the word. Edwards was just blowing smoke up the ass of the undecided voters last night.
Posted by: annika at July 29, 2004 01:34 PM (zAOEU)
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A few decades ago the democrats were Jimmy Carter...
Posted by: Dawn Summers at July 29, 2004 02:00 PM (HLOeu)
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Heh, even Jimmy Carter ain't what he used to be.
Posted by: annika! at July 29, 2004 02:14 PM (zAOEU)
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And that's a pretty damning comment: Carter was an unmitigated disaster as president, but he's WAY worse now.
I'm pretty sure you were looking back a bit further than that: the original JFK would have found himself in agreement with or to the right of most of GWB's current positions.
Posted by: Dave J at July 29, 2004 04:16 PM (GEMsk)
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Dean's Pledge
i would gladly take
Dean Esmay's Pledge, which is to say that, should Kerry be elected this November, partisanship should end at the "water's edge."
How many of you will have the patriotism to say, 'I disagree with many of his policy directions, I do not think he is conducting our foreign policy in the right way, but I will do my best to get behind him and support him until elections come around next time?' . . . even if he does things I disagree with in conducting foreign policy, I will say, 'I respectfully disagree with the President's directions, but I will do my best to express my dissent respectfully and hope that I am mistaken and that he has made the proper decisions after all.'
However, i won't go so far as Esmay and refrain from calling President Kerry a liar, if in fact, he lies. And no one who cares about this country should. Nor can i refuse to call him a traitor, since in my opinion, he became one long ago by his actions upon returning from Vietnam.
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Here, here! He is also a self-serving medal hunter whose claims of valor ring false with those who truly sacrificed in that war.
Posted by: Casca at July 28, 2004 10:28 PM (q+PSF)
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I have some concern that Esmay's pledge is missing the mark. The problem is not that Dems call Bush a liar- it's that they do not substantiate their charges. The problem is not strong language and tough charges about failed policy- the problem is misleading language and unsubstantiated charges about policies which are generally succeeding.
Posted by: gcotharn at July 30, 2004 12:54 AM (My8fB)
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July 27, 2004
Teddy
Has Ted Kennedy ever spoken one sentence in the last thirty years without fucking up the pronounciation of something in some way?
Has anyone ever accused him of being an idiot for doing so?
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You mean, seperately from the zillion other reasons to (correctly) accuse him of being an idiot? Actually, now that you mention it, I'm fairly certain the answer is yes. God, what an asinine schmuck. The man makes me almost terminally embarassed to be from Massachusetts.
Posted by: Dave J at July 27, 2004 09:07 PM (GEMsk)
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Both excellent questions.
Neither of which would recieve a coherent or polite answer from anyone in Boston at the moment.
Posted by: Mike Jericho at July 28, 2004 12:33 AM (A8Vx4)
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He's an idiot. I think he accused Tereza HK of being
opinionated (oh sorry, that was actually her
F'ing spouse). The Dems have a dream that someday the people will consider them smart instead of opinionated.
Posted by: d-rod at July 28, 2004 08:16 AM (HAu1f)
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I think he has "No officer, I haven't been drinking", and "I hope you can swim" down pat.
Posted by: JasonM at July 28, 2004 08:41 PM (JF+E8)
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July 26, 2004
Weather The Bounce, Boys
i tell you, i am becoming hugely optimistic about the upcoming election. There are several reasons for my optimism.
Mainly, i think the amount of support for Bush-Cheney is deliberately downplayed by a media that needs a close race for political preference and profit reasons.
Secondly, Kerry sucks as a candidate. He's not likeable. On the contrary, he's kind of an asshole, and people in the middle notice things like that. People who are undecided at this late stage of the game are more influenced by silly things like personality. If undecideds cared about the issues, they'd have made their minds up by now.
Thirdly, i think we can expect a big freak show at the upcoming Republican Convention in New York. The far left nut jobs will ensure Bush's re-election, even though they will think they're doing the opposite. In fact, i hope they go on a total Bush-hatin' rampage in the streets of New York. Everyone knows who's side they're on, and the worse the protesters act, the more people will realize how low the Democratic Party has fallen.
Fourthly, it's not about popular vote. It's about the electoral college, and that's looking good too. As AP reports:
With three months remaining in a volatile campaign, Kerry has 14 states and the District of Columbia in his column for 193 electoral votes. Bush has 25 states for 217 votes, according to an Associated Press analysis of state polls as well as interviews with strategists across the country.
Here are the states that AP says are "in play," but leaning in Bush's direction:
- North Carolina
- Colorado
- Louisiana
- Arizona
- Virginia
- Arkansas
- Missouri
Now please. Are you gonna tell me that those states, historically bastions of conservatism, are going to vote Kerry this year? Bush won them all in 2000, when the election was all about personality, not life-and-death. The only one that might possibly go Kerry is Missouri, but if it stays in the Bush camp, he's got 290 electors right there. To win, you need 270 electors.
By my reckoning, and assuming the polls stay like this until the election, i see Bush Cheney winning without even worrying about the battleground states like Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Michigan and West Virginia. Am i wrong here? Admittedly, math is not my best subject, but i think i'm right about this.
All Bush-Cheney have to do is weather the Kerry Edwards' post convention bounce and hopefully the election should be theirs to lose.
IMHO, of course.
Update: Forget my fourth point. i was wrong. As usual, my weak math skills misled me. But not as much as the stupid AP article, which failed to mention an important fact. As commenter Col. Steve points out:
The '25' to get 217 already includes the 7 states you list as in play but leaning Bush. Kerry's total includes the 14, DC but you leave out the 2 states (PA and OR) that the author says are toss-up but shifting to Kerry. You have to add those 2 states to give Kerry 193 + 21 + 7 = 221.
So, in fact the seven states that i said Bush would win, do not put him over the magic 270 number. He will still need to win some of the battleground states, and that is, i admit, an iffy proposition.
The math aside, my other points are still very well taken. IMHO.
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Consider also that Bush/Chenney have barely begun to campaign while Kerry has been at it for over a year. The best Kerry has been able do is essentially a statistical tie.
Posted by: Stephen Macklin at July 26, 2004 04:00 PM (4819r)
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Election night I'm going to be up and drinking heavily, that is all I know. Hopefully I'll be happy drunk, but the election will be close either way.
Posted by: Scof at July 26, 2004 04:01 PM (XCqS+)
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Annika, you have got it just right. The Democrats WISH the polls were the predictors, but they just don't mean Jack Shit, unless you go state by state.
The Federalists created the Electoral College for a sound reason; the little states needed additional representation to avoid being overwhelmed by the more populated ones. It constantly amazes me how prescient the drafters truly were. How could they have forseen the future with such clairvoyance?
This week, Kerry will be limited to the $74 Million provided by the US Government to end out the campaign. That doesn't happen to Bush until the first week in September. After a week or two, watch us pull away and Kerry/Edwards can bloviate all they want, they will never be in touching distance again. Bush won N.C. by 13 points in 2000; the most recent polls have him at 54% and Kerry/Edwards at 40%. So much for the Edwards Southern Bounce Theory.
Be Brave, we win.
Posted by: shelly s. at July 26, 2004 04:10 PM (AaBEz)
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Speaking of polls, the latest is a good one for Bush:
http://www.abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/Vote2004/kerry_poll_040726.html
Posted by: Scof at July 26, 2004 04:18 PM (XCqS+)
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Nice post. I think you may be on to something with your theory... The only Southern state that really worries me (other than Florida) is Louisiana. But I agree that NC, Virginia, Colorado and even Mizzou are likely to go Republican. Keep up the good work! I blogrolled your site...
Charles Waldie
Dallas, TX
Posted by: Charles Waldie at July 26, 2004 04:51 PM (AYLLa)
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You thought the Left was critical of Bush after the 2000 election? Just wait until we win the popular vote a second time in a row, and lose the electoral college a second time in a row...
As a Californian, I know damn well my vote counts for far less, mathematically, than it would if I lived in Wyoming or Idaho or North Dakota. That enrages me, and I suspect it would enrage my Republican brethren if the situation were reversed.
Posted by: Hugo at July 26, 2004 05:18 PM (ntfdi)
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All the states you listed as being "in play" are states where gun owners are a big part of the puzzle.
If Bush signs an "assault weapons" ban renewal then those state may very well go to Kerry via third party candidate.
I won't vote for Bush unless he does a dramatic & very convincing 180 on the gun thing, but I'll give you this advice for free:
If you want Bush to stand more than an iffy chance of being re-elected, then convince him & the other Repubs to start repealing instead of enacting gun control laws. Particularly tell them to kill outright any attempts at reneweing the "assault weapons" ban.
Of course I could be mistaken: there might not be enough gun owners in any of the states listed to alter things to Bush's detriment, but given what I do know of gun owners, more than 50% won't vote for Bush if an AWB is renewed. It's really just a question of how many votes does 50+% (closer to 60% actually) equate to? & would that number be enough to cost Bush the White House?
I think the answer is yes. Even if I'm wrong though it'd not hurt things a bit to tell Bush & company to oppose any AWB renewal attempts. I'm sure the number of gun owners who'd vote for him would far outweight any soccer moms he thinks he'd pick up.
As i said I'm not voting for Bush (or Kerry) - they're too socilaistic/authoritarian for my tastes. But if you want to see Bush win the easiest & most beneficial thing you can do is to tell him & any other Repubs to oppose any "assault weapons" ban renewal.
Posted by: Publicola at July 26, 2004 05:36 PM (Aao25)
Posted by: Casca at July 26, 2004 05:36 PM (q+PSF)
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I agree with you up to a point, but I just can't be THAT confident. I can speak to three of those states because I'm familiar with them. First, here in Florida everything points to another exceedingly narrow margin, though for the love of God hopefully not quite as narrow as last time, whicever way it goes.
Next, this Tulane Law alum definitely has to regard Louisiana as leaning to Bush but still very much in play. It's always a little different from anywhere else, and though it's a basically conservative state, it's still much more Democratic than the typically "solid" GOP South. And it's a place where local personalities punch above their weight and can really have more impact than practically any place else, so remember that Bush had a Republican governor in Mike Foster the last time around, while Kathleen Blanco will be doing everything she possibly can to hurt him. Yes, I'm implying dirty tricks: it's Louisiana, after all, and that's probably at least a part of how she won her own office. However, countering that, I'd be interested to see if Ray Nagy, the Democratic but "pragmatist" mayor who's really managed to clean up New Orleans and who backed Republican Bobby Jindal against Blanco, might endorse Bush, or at least stay essentially neutral.
Finally, Virginia. Four years in DC and you understand why the Old Dominion is on the way to becoming a swing state. The Virginia suburbs of DC are the second-fastest growing metro area in the country after Las Vegas: the development and resulting demographic changes are absolutely explosive. The population growth isn't quite overwhelmingly Democratic, but it's composed of federal employees, lobbyists and associated groups of people from all other, that do skew far more Democratic than the largely Republican rest of the state. "People's Republic of NoVA" might be a bit much, but keep in mind that there's no way Virginia would have ever elected its current Democratic governor, let alone had its recent and ongoing tax fracas, without that part of the state. It definitely still leans to Bush, but not by as much you might think.
I wouldn't feel secure enough to actually bet real money on the outcome of any of these states. OTOH, I'm also one of the people who thinks New Jersey is genuinely in play this time as well: because it's smaller, 9/11 may well have changed its politics more radically than New Yorks's.
Posted by: Dave J at July 26, 2004 05:40 PM (GEMsk)
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Instead of "from all other" that should read "from all over the country." Preview is my friend. ;-)
Posted by: Dave J at July 26, 2004 05:47 PM (GEMsk)
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Dave, I've lived in Virginia since I was in kindergarten, and I will not permit my state to go Democratic. Even though the immigrants here around the Beltway are less conservative than the rest of the state, that's all relative. Go out to Manassas or Woodbridge, and you're in solidly Republican territory. Everything west of I-95 is either Republican or conservative Democrat (yes, there are still some out there in the Shenandoah Valley). Everything east of I-95 is mostly Republican, including the Peninsula, which is the most militarized part of the U.S. mainland.
Republicans have a wide lead in the state assembly. The only reason Virginia is "in play" is because Bush hasn't campaigned here. All they need to do is run a few ads, and that's that.
Posted by: Eric Johnson at July 26, 2004 08:30 PM (svki/)
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i see Bush Cheney winning without even worrying about the battleground states like Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Michigan and West Virginia. Am i wrong here.
I think you are Annika. The "25" to get 217 already includes the 7 states you list as in play but leaning Bush. Kerry's total includes the 14, DC but you leave out the 2 states (PA and OR) that the author says are toss-up but shifting to Kerry. You have to add those 2 states to give Kerry 193 + 21 + 7 = 221.
So, that's 41 states plus DC for 438 electorl votes. Hence, Bush has to get at least 53 electoral votes from the 100 remaining in the 9 battleground state you list above - so he's got to worry about them. FL which looks his way gives him 27 of those and if hangs on in OH, he gets 20 more for 47. Still has to pull out 6 more EVs from the 7 states and he lost 4 of the remaining 7 states (MI, NM, IA, and WI) in 2000 and may lose NH this year. That leave WV and NV for 10 combined votes to give him 57 and a grand total of 274 to Kerry's 264...
Now, WI and IA are winnable and he's been putting a lot of effort in PA, but I don't think you can make the statement that Bush-Cheney doesn't have to worry about the battleground states.
Hugo: "As a Californian, I know damn well my vote counts for far less, mathematically, than it would if I lived in Wyoming or Idaho or North Dakota."
Superficially, those 3 states are solid Rep with a combined 10 electoral votes compared to 55 for CA.
Mathematically, at least David Madore thinks you actually count more than we poor folks who vote in a state with only 4 electoral votes..Here is the summary of his discussion on US Presidential election voting:
Qualitative description
We must compute two different coefficients of power for each state. The first is the coefficient of power of the state in the Union, i.e. in the electoral college, interpreting the electoral college as a votational system. So it is equal to the number of configurations of yes/no votes among the states, where the given state's vote will be decisive, divided by the total number of configurations (namely 251 because there are 51 states ). The computation of the coefficients of power has been done numerically. As we have mentioned, it is very much a linear function of the number of seats, except in the case of California, which has distinctly more power than in proportion to its number of electors.
This first coefficient varies between 46.6% in the case of California, and 2.3% for the states having three electors.
The second coefficient is that of an individual within a state. We are quite within the domain of validity of the asymptotic approximation we have described earlier, according to which this coefficient of power is proportional to the inverse square root of the population.
This second coefficient varies between 0.167% in the least populous state (Wyoming) and 0.0227% in the most populous (California).
And as explained in the general discussion on two-stage decision systems, the overall coefficient of power of an individual of the given state in the Union, is the product of the two aforementioned coefficients of power.
We can already see that there is a problem: the electoral weight of each state is an affine function of its population (two electors for any state plus one for every so many citizens), and the corresponding power is roughly proportional; whereas the coefficient of power of an individual within the state drops down only like the square root of the population. This means, and numerical results confirm it, that citizens of the most populous states of the Union have more power than those of less populous states.
In fact, we find that the overall (product) coefficient of power is highest in California, where it is 0.0106%, and lowest in Montana, where it is 0.00265% — or four times less.
Posted by: Col Steve at July 26, 2004 09:07 PM (ttEaR)
13
Well, if you tried to follow the math, what didn't transmit well is the number of combinations is not 251, but 2 raised to the 51st power..and DC is counted as a "state" because it has 3 EVs..
Posted by: Col Steve at July 26, 2004 09:11 PM (ttEaR)
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HK Fires Off
By now, you must have heard about Heintz-Kerry's* bizarre "shove it" melt-down with that reporter. i thought it was hysterical. i mean, she just got done giving a speech about civility in politics. And all the guy did was ask her what she meant by "un-American."
She's a freak. i've met people who do the same thing. They say something to you and then one minute later adamantly deny that they've said it. i went out with a guy who would do that and then try to bully me into doubting my own ears. Just like HK did. Only when she denied it, there was an audio recording as proof. Now she just looks crazier than she already looked.
i really don't think Heintz-Kerry is a stable person. i mean emotionally. It's just an impression i've gotten after watching her these last few months. You just watch, she'll melt-down a few more times before Kerry's handlers get wise and sequester her until the election.
Another incredible thing about this episode: i can understand HK not realizing her mistake, she hadn't listened to the proof of what she said. But what's this guy's excuse? He links to the video, then says that
the 'reporter' in question attempted to attribute a quote to Mrs. Kerry that she didn't say.
Huh? She did say it, i heard the audio myself.
Dude needs to listen to the audio again, this time without holding his hands over his ears and saying "lalalalalala."
Liberals. *sigh* Whatareyagonnado?
Link via Sean.
Update: Malkin noticed HK's craziness back in January.
* Yes, i have decided to bestow the mis-spelling honor upon her.
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The counterpoint we are hearing is that Cheney dropped the F-bomb on the Senate floor...my feeling is that is THK wants come off like Cheney more power to here. It'll just drive up here negs, make Laura seem even better as a 1st lady and distract from Kerry's (weak) message.
Posted by: Scof at July 26, 2004 01:39 PM (XCqS+)
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I do think she is vain and condescending and unstable in the way a shallow shoot-off-their-mouth person is unstable. All that said, I get a kick out of her.
You can read her pretty well through facial expressions and body language. Lots of times she will be on the stage and she is body-language screaming that she is completely bored and disdainful of the claptrap emanating from the microphone. Also, who among us doesn't love someone who tells a reporter to "shove it?" Un-First-Lady-like-- but you gotta love it at some level!
One thing that drives me crazy about her is her hair. All that money for "constantly in my face" hair?! Does this bother anyone else?
Also, re the "f" bomb, John "Gangster" Kerry intentionally laid down a couple in the same MTV interview. He's down wit da kids, G!
Posted by: gcotharn in Texas at July 26, 2004 03:51 PM (PcgQk)
3
Yeah, like we need the JHK crew running the show in the White House.
Causes one to pause, what if Al Gore had won? We would have been in such deep tapioca with that maroon at the helm.
The four of them are out of their minds. Really.
Posted by: joe at July 26, 2004 06:02 PM (uD8n6)
4
True confessions time... I've actually had to deal with extremely wealthy people on a regular basis. If there's an immutable law about money, it is that the more you have, the absofuckinglutely whackier you are. Think about it... Hughes, Old Joe Kennedy, Pick-a-Rockefeller (I miss the good ole days when that plagerist twat loved to tell the story of Rocky's mechanically inflatable penis, and inconvenient death in the company of his young concubine.), and how about that dwarf from Texas with the squeaky voice? Yes by Summer's end, she'll be known as "Crackers".
Posted by: Casca at July 26, 2004 06:14 PM (q+PSF)
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BTW, Oliver Willis is a well-known flaming rectum.
Posted by: Casca at July 26, 2004 06:31 PM (q+PSF)
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"HK Fires Off"
Coincidence or expertly crafted gun pun? For a moment I thought the enrty supra was gonna be a range report on one of Heckler&Koch's excellent products.
Your a shameless tease.
Jasen
Posted by: Jasen at July 26, 2004 07:20 PM (+abeT)
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Re: the hair. i thought the same thing about Martha Stewart.
Re: the HK. Yes, it's a cleverly crafted gun pun.
Posted by: annika! at July 26, 2004 11:33 PM (JE92I)
8
That should've been you're, not your and entry, instead of enrty.
Jasen
Posted by: Jasen at July 27, 2004 06:13 PM (u2P7m)
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July 23, 2004
When Is A Dry Run Not A Dry Run?
When one of the passengers
turns out to be all wet.
Undercover federal air marshals on board a June 29 Northwest airlines flight from Detroit to LAX identified themselves after a passenger, 'overreacted,' to a group of middle-eastern men on board, federal officials and sources have told KFI NEWS.
The passenger, later identified as Annie Jacobsen, was in danger of panicking other passengers and creating a larger problem on the plane, according to a source close to the secretive federal protective service.
Jacobsen, a self-described freelance writer, has published two stories about her experience at womenswallstreet.com, a business advice web site designed for women.
Dawn has more.
You know i'm a hawk when it comes to the war on terror. i'm not saying we should let our guard down, especially nowadays. But still, this lady's story, when i first read it, sure sounded like an urban legend to me.
It turned out not to be an urban legend, but neither did it turn out to be what Jacobsen thought it was. i bet that's how half of the urban legends out there start, by somebody over-reacting.
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The thing is, there's a lot of pilots and flight attendants who have observed "dry run" type behavior on other flights.
And the other thing is, if the CIA/FBI were trying to monitor the Syrians to see if they lead to bigger fish, then the CIA/FBI would want to put out disinformation.
And the other other thing is, what kind of people rise up en masse and head for the toilets when the plane is beginning its descending run in preparation for landing?
The journalist and her spouse could be overreacting, but I think it's maybe impossible for us to judge the truth of this situation.
This next has me wondering if I am getting too conspiratorial in my thinking, but-
is it so farfetched that a group of Syrian musicians might agree to "dry run" certain behaviors on a flight? They would've known they had legitimate alibis and likely wouldn't be detained. They could've been induced to action by bribe or blackmail. Gotta go- think I hear a black helicopter outside the house!
Posted by: gcotharn in Texas at July 23, 2004 11:25 PM (PcgQk)
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This particular situation probably was entirely innocent, but, as gcotharn just noted, there have been plenty of recent incidents which have been very worrisome indeed. I think it is simply irresponsible that the arming of flight crews has not proceeded with a sense of real urgency (and have a post up on this topice)
Posted by: David Foster at July 24, 2004 10:23 AM (XUtCY)
3
My understanding is that they were indeed members of a band, and yet each and every one of them had an expired visa.
And just because you're in a band doesn't mean you can't be a terrorist.
For some stupid reason, the PC-crowd thinks that being middle-eastern automatically means you *can't* be a terrorist.
Posted by: Ted at July 24, 2004 11:34 AM (ZjSa7)
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2 cents
Posted by: Scof at July 24, 2004 11:41 AM (MzkCz)
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If they can learn to fly a plane, they can learn to play a musical instrument.
If their visas were truly expired, they should not be able to board a plane except to return to whence they came.
Remember, the operative part of illegal alien is "illegal". This is still America, a rule of law country.
Posted by: shelly s. at July 24, 2004 09:26 PM (PcgQk)
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Get your free iPod! All you gotta do is complete an offer and sign up 5 friends! Completely legitimate offer by reputable company. Read about it here:
http://www.3sixtyfour.com/freeipods.html
Posted by: Anna at July 24, 2004 09:53 PM (6CJE3)
7
I'm shocked at your outlook on this, Anna. I thought your eyes were more open than this.
Posted by: The Agnostic at July 25, 2004 11:00 AM (YzXz/)
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July 21, 2004
Lynda Rondstat
Shelly asked me if i was going to comment on the Lynda Ronsdstat controversy. i don't have much to to say on that, except for the following:
At least she had the guts to say what she said in front of a hostile audience in this country. That's more than i can say for the Dixie Chiks.
Also, what she said wasn't so bad. She just recommended the movie. It's not like she said she was ashamed to be an American.
i think what she said about Christians and Republicans is more offensive.
Anyway, whatever. Who cares about her anyway? She made one good record, a long time ago with Nelson Riddle, and her career's been AWOL ever since.
Link thanks to Jen.
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Most folks think her "Trio" recordings with Emmylou and Dolly are spectacular... I am among them.
And I think the behavior of the crowd at the Aladdin was unfortunate.
Posted by: Hugo at July 21, 2004 11:40 AM (ntfdi)
2
i was gonna say something about the crowd, but the story seems exagerrated to me. Anyway, it's not much different than the behavior of
this kid's history teacher.
Posted by: annika at July 21, 2004 11:46 AM (zAOEU)
3
I think if you pay $250 a seat, you have a right not to be subjected to left-wing propaganda.
If you have been warned that the artist has lost her mind and you still go, then you should sit through the propaganda without objection.
Posted by: Jake at July 21, 2004 02:56 PM (h4tU8)
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O.K. Annika, I guess I am sorry I asked. But, "guts"? Nope, maybe just in need of some ink.
Posted by: shelly s. at July 21, 2004 04:21 PM (AaBEz)
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July 19, 2004
An Ugly Old French Problem
i totally agree with Ariel Sharon's belief that
French Jews should emigrate to Israel to escape "the wildest anti-semitism." That comment has caused
that old slug, Chirac to revoke his invitation for Sharon to visit Paris.
Don't worry about it, Ariel. i've been to Paris, you ain't missing much.
Other Frenchies are up in arms* over Sharon's statement too.
'France is not Germany of the 1930s,' said Julien Dray, spokesman for the opposition Socialist Party . . .
Maybe, but France
is beginning to resemble France of the 1940s (Vichy collaborationists). Or France of the 1890s (The Dreyfus affair). The French have a long history of anti-semitism, to which
their latest group of immigrants would love to add.
'The French have actually gone further than any other country in Europe in recognizing that they have a mountain of a problem on their hands,' says David A. Harris, executive director of the American Jewish Committee, who consults with the French government. Indeed, from their point of view, anti-Semitism may turn out to be the least of it. The huge number of Muslim young people born in France who actively resist acculturation, he says, leaves French officials 'baffled and challenged'
But the government itself appears far from blameless.
At least behind closed doors, French officials are even starting to entertain the proposition that the virulence and relentlessness of their criticism of Israel and its supporters feeds the insalubrious climate in which crimes against Jews multiply. Despite French newspapers' vigorous coverage of the latest apparent anti-Semitic attack, a further evolution may be needed before French intellectual and media elites will go that far.
*
Figuratively speaking, of course. To the French, the phrase "up in arms" means to put "up" your hands whenever you see "arms."
Update: Dawn's opinion is the opposite of mine.
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I agree with the French Socialists. France isn't like the Germany of the 1930s. It's more like the Vichy France of the 1940s! Ran by elitist appeasers who sleep with the bad guys and wouldn't bat an eye at the thought of sending Jews to the gas chambers.
As for Chirac, he's such an ass. It's perfectly ok for him to make obnoxious comments about America, Israel, Italy, and other countries that get on his nerves. But look out if they talk back. Then he starts shrieking like a little girlie man.
Posted by: Ron at July 19, 2004 09:23 PM (Nv+wd)
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Again, Annika, you are right on the money.
I've been to Paris many times; it is dirty, smelly, now full of (@27%) Muslim immigrants who can sway elections, and the women still don't shave their legs or under their arms.
The French invented perfume; wanna guess why?
Posted by: shelly s. at July 20, 2004 02:07 AM (PcgQk)
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When i was in paris i saw no less than two people uninating in the street. i'm not talking back alleys, i saw this on the Champs d'Elysee!
Posted by: annika! at July 20, 2004 09:03 AM (zAOEU)
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Annika, if you can remember the holes in the ground that pass for toilets, perhaps you can remember why they do that. Ugh.
France is a second rate power going to third rate. Before it is over, we will be at war with them as well.
Perhaps our policy makers should consider a revision of our immigration and border laws. It is time for a change; we need to give up some of our civil liberties to avoid the daily suicide bombings that Israel has endured for years.
Posted by: shelly s. at July 25, 2004 06:02 PM (PcgQk)
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July 16, 2004
He Said What i Been Saying, Only Better
If i might be allowed to boast a little, in a blog post yesterday,
Steven Den Beste articulates what i've been trying to tell people about the Iraq War for two years now. Summed up in my most pithy way: "
It's the regime change, stupid!"
At the risk of sounding like a "me-tooer" (i really have been making this point all along, but never as clearly, alas, than Mr. Den Beste) here is the relevant stuff, quoted at length:
WMDs were never the real purpose of the invasion. WMDs were the focus of the spotlight, however, because of serious diplomatic efforts to gain [United Nations Security Council] approval for an invasion. Within the context of the UNSC, the only way to justify an invasion was to claim that Iraq had not fully cooperated with UN inspectors. Which, . . . Saddam's government had not, even as late as March 2003.
But the public justification made in the UN had nothing to do with the real purpose, the real strategic goal which required the invasion. [Washington Monthly blogger Kevin Drum] makes casual reference to that, when he says, Facts on the ground have never been allowed to interfere with George Bush's worldview, and he wasn't about to take the chance that they might interfere with his war.
Except that 'facts on the ground' did not interfere or contradict the real purpose, which was to depose a corrupt dictator and to 'nation build' so as to make one core Arab nation a better place for the people living there. By so doing, the goal was to infect the imaginations and aspirations of the citizens in other nations in the region, to 'destabilize' the corrupt dictatorships in charge and to try to bring about long term change to the whole region. And that could not be publicly proclaimed at the time without deeply imperiling the strategy for the overall war.
So why were we at the UN? Mainly because Tony Blair needed to fulfill a promise made to the more leftist MPs in his party that he would not take the UK to war without a UNSC resolution or an 'unreasonable veto'. There were other reasons as well, but that was the most important one.
So we went to the UNSC to seek permission for something we actually had the capability of doing. (The only permission Bush actually required was granted to him by Congress in October of 2002.) And when it finally became clear that permission would not be forthcoming, we went ahead and did it anyway.
. . .
For some, that made it an 'illegal war'. It was a 'war of choice', not a 'war of necessity'. It was a 'violation of international law'.
None of those distinctions actually matter. . . . They're also all matters of opinion, subject to considerable dispute. . . .
. . . I happen to think that the invasion was necessary. But it wasn't necessary in order to gain revenge for direct Iraqi involvement in the 9/11 attack (there's no significant evidence that Saddam's government was directly implicated in that) or to prevent 'imminent danger'. It was necessary in order to prevent significant non-imminent danger.
Aha! There you go.
In my view, anti-war people have been too focused on the past. The war was illegal, they insist. There were no WMDs. Saddam and Al Qaeda didn't cooperate.
Neocons, of which i count myself one, always focused on the future. They said: After 9/11, we can no longer afford to trust that Saddam will not create and provide WMDs to the terrorists. WMDs which they intend to use against American civilians.
The existence or non-existence of WMDs in Iraq at the time of the war does not change the fact that Saddam . . . had . . . to . . . go.
Link props to David Boxenhorn, who has a slightly different take on justification and priorities.
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what about iran and kim mentally ill.
Posted by: Dex at July 16, 2004 08:45 PM (rPHeE)
2
AWESOME! AL JAZEERA IS COMING TO CANADA
Cable companies have been given the green light to begin carrying the legendary and respected Arab based news channel.
Canadian viewers will soon be able to watch the Arabic Al-Jazeera network, after the federal broadcast regulator on Thursday approved the network's distribution by cable companies.
Cable companies have been eager to pick up the network, known as the more credible CNN of the Arab world, which was already being watched by some Canadians using "grey-market" technology that the Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission considers illegal.
A regard, at which point it takes a long time the kingdom in Whingers at the beginning which foams on this one. As I knew, not too a long time: * von our expensive rube small Katie death entendement. *
Brought zu with you by approving it the body, which of the Canadian before that propogandist FoxNews to protect.
I declare you , why it this control and not fox guthiessen, rube. Canada has already an access to the dozen and the led dozen the corporative United States ReichWhinge. Us not however to have an access to Arabic. C-with-D. if it offers a diversity and the truth to Canadians.
It female ignorant.
[Editorial comments translated into frog for the benefit of the French-speaking. an.]
Posted by: Robert Mc-Clelland at July 17, 2004 10:19 AM (Wonhh)
3
Methinks brother Mc-Clelland may have erroneously landed in the wrong blogland.
This here is Bush County; if you want sand, move to the Mideast.
Fallujah Delenda Est.
Posted by: shelly s. at July 17, 2004 11:08 AM (AaBEz)
4
The existence or non-existence of WMDs in Iraq at the time of war does not change the fact that Saddam had to go
Perhaps, but it does not change the fact that the President of the United States got on television and told bald faced lies (whether or not you believe he knew they were lies, they WERE lies nontheless). So now that the dust has settled and the voting public can look back at that decision with some perspective, can we punish a president for lying? I think we can. If we can punish a president for lying about a blowjob, then certainly we can punish a president for lying that caused the deaths of nearly 1000 US soldiers. This fact is not lost on those who support the military in so called red states. I am heartened when I talk to some family members back in Colorado (a red state) who voted for Bush in 2000 and are now thinking that the war wasn't such a hot idea and are seriously considering voting for Kerry. I think Bush has a real credibility problem that goes beyond flip-flopping. It is the lying and the company he keeps... Ken Lay, Prince Bandar, the Bin Ladin family... etc. I love his comments about Ken Lay after he was indicted. "He was an acquaintance from years ago. I really haven't had much contact with him..." Oh yeah, except that I flew around in his Enron jets during the 2000 presidential campaign. Hmmm.
Posted by: Graham at July 21, 2004 11:29 PM (+XyFZ)
5
Graham - The community of nations may see more and more of the very kind of threat Iraq poses now: a rogue state with weapons of mass destruction, ready to use them or provide them to terrorists," the president of the United States warned. "If we fail to respond today, Saddam and all those who would follow in his footsteps will be emboldened tomorrow." The President was Bill Clinton. Was he a liar too?
The difference between GWB and BC is that BC relied on ineffectual, precision strike missiles with limited effects and thus minimal casualities while GWB relied on the one of the truest cliches in war - You may fly over a land forever; you may bomb it, atomize it, pulverize it and wipe it clean of life—but if you desire to defend it, protect it, and keep it for civilization, you must do this on the ground, the way the Roman legions did, by putting your young men into the mud.”
If the voters think GWB's approach was wrong - ok. Or that he, like BC, should have cleaned up the culture and stovepiped nature of the Intel Community - ok too.
But for lying?
JF Kerry said he was supporting the resolution “to disarm Saddam Hussein because I believe that a deadly arsenal of weapons of mass destruction in his hands is a real and grave threat to our security.”
That was on Oct. 9, 2002. As the prospect of war rose, so did Kerry’s rhetoric. On Jan. 2003, Kerry said, “Without question, we need to disarm Saddam Hussein. He is a brutal, murderous dictator, leading an oppressive regime. He presents a particularly grievous threat because he is so consistently prone to miscalculation….And now he is miscalculating America’s response to his continued deceit and his consistent grasp for weapons of mass destruction…So the threat of Saddam Hussein with weapons of mass destruction is real.”
Umm..Kerry voted to give the President authority to use force against Iraq - but he along with the 76 other senators bear no responsibility for the resulting consequences?
Dex - We don't invade NK because our conflict is with China and we'd prefer it to go the route of the old Cold War where we either beat the economically or the impact of economic expansion causes an internal regime change..Why do you think China doesn't invade Taiwan? Neither of us want to start a major conflict..yet.
Iran - the geography makes it a little harder..also, there are reasons to hope the internal political dynamics within Iran may give rise to a more secular, (relatively) moderate state..especially with a Shia majority model next door in Iraq..and now they are squeezed between (hopefully) pro-US Iraq and Afghanistan..
Annika - You're partially right..but you can't forget the US is the global guarantor of oil for the world economy..if the House of Saud falls, which seemed (and still does) probable given their failure to deal with the radical elements in their own country, then either Iraq or Iran would likely make a move to protect the minority and poorly treated Shia in the NE where the oil fields are..and guess what would happen to the world economy then? It's a very complex campaign that could produce stunning impacts on the global security environment or become a protracted quagmire..the plan was good, but as they say, most plans are useless once the shooting starts..
Posted by: Col Steve at July 22, 2004 01:01 AM (vroAu)
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Unfortunately Col Steve, it sounds like your argument is that since Kerry and Bill Clinton also thought Saddam was a threat then they are may also be liars therefore Bush is not alone. Not a very convincing argument. A key phrase regarding the Kerry comment on Saddam is "I believe" why do you think Kerry would believe that Saddam was a grave threat? Perhaps bad intelligence that was not vetted and properly analyzed and not based on human intelligence other than disgruntled Iraqis like Ahmed Chalabi who has been shown to be a fraud. I can't blame Kerry for voting for a resoution authorizing force under such circumstances (also timed right before an election). I can't really blame 70% of Americans who think that Saddam was behind 9/11 attacks. However, I (and a majority of Americans will as well) blame the purveyors of both of those frauds who include Dick Cheney, Paul Wolfowitz, Richard Perle, Donald Rumsfeld, George Tenet and George Bush. They did not present any contradictory evidence or convey proper levels of uncertainty of their data. The public statements made by those people were very clear with out doubt or any sort of caveats. Letting the UN continue inspections might have revealed much more information. Do you remember what UNSCOM was doing right before the US/UK decided to invade? I do. They were destroying Al Samoud missiles that violated UN sanctions. The timing of the attack was a lie as well. Cynically, one might say it was to get the fighting and dying over with before Nov 2004 elections since that doesn't play well on TV during an election. Where are the cheering crowds and rose petal greetings that were mentioned? Sorry, I don't think you can drag down Kerry and Clinton on this one. Bush is the commander in chief, Bush made the call and told specific lies in the SoTU. The buck stops where???
Posted by: Graham at July 22, 2004 12:34 PM (yuxaa)
7
This says it all about how the election might go:
From a CBS News poll
ON WAR IN IRAQ, BUSH HAS BEEN:
Telling entire truth 18%
Hiding something 59%
Mostly lying 20%
A scientific poll with a +-3% error. NOT a web poll.
Posted by: Graham at July 22, 2004 12:43 PM (yuxaa)
8
Graham -
I was pointing out the inconsistency in your post. You wrote:
"Perhaps, but it does not change the fact that the President of the United States got on television and told bald faced lies (whether or not you believe he knew they were lies, they WERE lies nontheless)"
The key phrase you wrote was "(whether or not you believe he knew they were lies)."
If he KNEW the intelligence was falsified (and let Colin Powell go before the UN just like BC let his defenders did on Monica), then I would support your assertion we can "punish a president for lying."
You leave room for the possibility (personally you seem to have reach the conclusion GWB and others knew the intel was false) though that people took the intel community's products and analysis as reliable.
You let the Senators who voted to authorize (and continue to fund) operations in Iraq off the hook because they acted in good faith based on the intelligence -
"Perhaps bad intelligence that was not vetted and properly analyzed and not based on human intelligence other than disgruntled Iraqis like Ahmed Chalabi who has been shown to be a fraud."
I am challenging your inconsistency that if the President acted based on the same understanding of intelligence that the Senators received, then he can be held accountable for "lying" while the Senators cannot.
I acknowledge the President made decisions based on the intelligence and the voters should judge him for those decisions as well as the execution of those policies. But unless you believe he was lying (and where's the proof - I've worked in both the NSC and DOD since 98 and personally think that while there's been a lot of incompentent people from both adminstrations working in those orgs, I have never seen any indication or actions to falsify intelligence), the standards should be the same for both Congress and the President.
And if we're going to blame GWB for failure to challenge the intel community (after only 1 yr in office and it took 9/11 to get this administration to start getting its act together in the NSC and DOD), you have to ask what those House and Senate members on the Intelligence Oversight committees were doing for a decade as they handed out tens of billions of dollars and why folks in the last administration such as Sandy Berger and Bill Cohen reached the same conclusions as the Bush folks.
Oh, please stop the timing of the war was based on the election. If you've been to that region of the world and understand the influences of weather on basic military operations, you would reach the same conclusion that military planners did - you had to start operations before April or wait another 6 months. There was no "lie" - it was based on the optimal conditions to conduct operations - which I believe is a rational and sound position assuming you have decided to go to war.
Granted, you may have opted to wait and let the UN do its thing and that's was a feasible course of action. However, as Annika's original posting indicated, this whole campaign has a much greater endstate in mind. You may disagree with that endstate or may believe there are different policies to achieve it - we'll see what folks say in November.
As for your poll, the results don't seem to translate into how people are stating they'll vote. Also, if asked that question, I'd answer in the middle category. I work in this area and even I know I'm not privy nor should I be to all the information. But it's a false choice because "hiding something" is not qualified - does it mean hiding information he thinks should not get out because our enemies would also know it? or does it mean he's hiding secret memos where he told George Tenet to start making stuff up?
As for the Rose petal comment, I agree with you to an extent. The civilian leadership overruled the military planners (as is their right) based on bad assumptions (influence no doubt by Iraqi exiles) in terms of the amount of resources we should have had immediately after major combat operations in order to set the conditions for the post-hostilities stabilization and reconstruction operations. I think we learned a hard lesson at the cost of both time and human lives. I personally felt GWB should have fired some of the 2d tier Pentagon folks.
We'll see what the voter say in Nov.
Posted by: Col Steve at July 22, 2004 03:00 PM (DmFF+)
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Some Advice For The Two Johns Regarding The Upcoming Debates
My advice for the two Johns (which will help them in the upcoming debates with President Bush and Vice-President Cheney) is to stick to format. They should not change their message now, it's obviously very popular among their supporters. But i would suggest that they simplify the message so that it's easier to understand. You see there's quite a few dim-bulbs out there who would vote Democrat if only the Democratic platform were shorter and easier to commit to memory.
Here's my advice:
To John Edwards: You're the attack dog. So every time Dick Cheney says something, your retort should include the word "Halliburton." It might be difficult to work that into all your debate answers, so if you get stuck simply begin yelling "HALLIBURTON! HALLIBURTON! HALLIBURTOOOOON!" You will surely get a loud cheer out of the hand picked audience of CNN approved lefty Bush-haters. And the beauty of this debate tactic, besides its simplicity, is that every wacked out lefty understands it, because they revert back to the same tactic themselves whenever confronted by that pesky foe known as "logical reasoning."
To John Kerry: Try not to speak. But if you must, follow the same strategy outlined above, except say "Vietnam" instead of "Halliburton."
Posted by: annika at
09:53 AM
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Bonus points and a possible landslide victory if the sentence "Halliburton is Dick Cheney's Vietnam" is used. (Extra super duper points, if it's responsive.)
Posted by: Dawn at July 16, 2004 10:10 AM (HLOeu)
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Whenever I hear Kerry talking about Vietnam, I for some inexplicable reason can't help but remember Dana Carvey as George H.W. Bush at the outset of Desert Storm.
"This country has learned the lesson of Vietnam. Which is: do not fight in Vietnam."
Posted by: Dave J at July 16, 2004 01:12 PM (VThvo)
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