August 23, 2006

Wednesday Is Poetry Day

From the best contemporary Danish poet out there, Henrik Nordbrandt:


Sailing

After having loved we lie close together
and at the same time with distance between us
like two sailing ships that enjoy so intensely
their own lines in the dark water they divide
that their hulls
are almost splitting from sheer delight
while racing, out in the blue
under sails which the night wind fills
with flower-scented air and moonlight
- without one of them ever trying
to outsail the other
and without the distance between them
lessening or growing at all.

But there are other nights, where we drift
like two brightly illuminated luxury liners
lying side by side
with the engines shut off, under a strange constellation
and without a single passenger on board:
On each deck a violin orchestra is playing
in honor of the luminous waves.
And the sea is full of old tired ships
which we have sunk in our attempt to reach each other.


Somewhat Billy Collins-esque, don't you think?

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Jeopardy With Annika, Round 26

D-Rod, Tuning Spork, and Leif are tied for the lead with $1500; Shelly has $1000; Victor has $700; Law Fairy has $500; Maximum Leader and KG have $300 each; Matt of Overtaken By Events and Trint have $200 each; Drake Steel, TBinSTL and SkippyStalin have $100 each.

There's still plenty of money left on the board for you dark horses to make a move!

The category is "Ronald Reagan," for $100.

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August 22, 2006

A Lengthy And Perhaps Unnecessary Post Of Dubious Mathematical Merit To Illustrate Something You Probably Already Know

Guys like Chuck Hagel and David Gergen seem to think that talking to the Iranians will prevent them from joining the nuclear club. It's a crazy idea, and I don't understand why so many notable people have put their faith in this silly course of action.

Iran is presented with a finite number of choices and outcomes, which can be easily and logically analyzed. At the end of any honest analysis, you can see that it is simply not in the mullahs' interest to negotiate away their nuclear arms program. Therefore it's logical to assume that they won't, not only because they have repeatedly said they won't, but also because the best possible course of action from Iran's point of view (regardless of whether they are rational or irrational actors) is to continue their program until they get the bomb.

It's like simple math.

Assume three possible outcomes available to Iran from the current state of negotiations.

Outcome ON: Iran gets a nuclear weapon.1

Outcome OI: Iran gets a package of incentives from the West.

Outcome OS: International sanctions imposed on Iran, most likely a combination of economic and diplomatic restrictions.

Assume that the Iranians desire outcomes ON and OI, and wish to avoid outcome OS.

Although it's not essential to my analysis, you may also assume that the West2 wishes to prevent outcome ON, but also that the values of outcomes OI and OS are variable and uncertain, due to dissention within the West.

Now at first glance, one can see two alternative courses of action for Iran that are obvious.

Course of action CA1: Iran refuses to abandon its nuclear enrichment program, rejects all efforts at compromise, and continues working until they get the bomb.

Course of action CA2: Iran abandons its nuclear program in exchange for the package of incentives offered by the West.

If Iran takes course of action CA1, they give up outcome OI. On the other hand, if Iran takes course of action CA2, they give up outcome ON. Therefore the Iranians must decide between the following values (remembering that OS is a negative value):
CA1 = ON - (OI + OS)
or alternatively,
CA2 = (OI + OS) - ON
Those equations demonstrate that the West needs to make the value of their carrot+stick package equal to or greater than the value of an Iranian nuclear bomb. Thus, if (OI + OS) > ON, then CA2 > CA1. If true, Iran should then choose CA2. Even if the values were exactly equal, Iran would probably choose CA2, simply for the sake of peace and goodwill.

However, we live in the real world and we all know that the value of a nuclear weapon to the country that possesses it far outweighs the value of any combination of incentives or sanctions the West could possibly offer. Especially if said country has already expressed its desire to wipe a hated enemy off the map, and has recently sent weapons, including rockets, missiles and drones to a proxy army fighting said hated enemy as recently as this month.

Given the above, one would assume that Iran would pursue course of action CA1, but as we have seen, they continue to pay lip service to the negotiation track, CA2. Are they really pursuing course of action CA2? Not if CA1 > CA2! What then, are they doing?

Perhaps there is a CA3, a third course of action that would tempt Iran with the opportunity to gain outcomes ON and OI at the same time without incurring any sanctions.

CA3 = (CA1 + CA2) = (ON + OI) - OS
Remember OS is a negative value, so the above equation simplifies to:
CA3 = (ON + OI + OS)
A hefty sum indeed! Perhaps Iran believes it can have it all by simply agreeing to a compromise, while secretly pursuing the holy grail of enrichment a la North Korea.

But CA3 contains one flaw: verification. Certainly the West, weak as its negotiating position is, will never agree to deliver incentives without a gauranteed inspection regime. Although the inspections might be watered down, we already know about the Esfahan, Natanz, and Arak facilities, so it would be difficult for the Iranians to refuse access to those sites. Some experts estimate the number of centrifuges necessary at Natanz for a decent enrichment program to be 50,000. That kind of operation would be hard to disguise or relocate.

That's why I think Iran is following another course of action, CA4:

CA4 = (ON x TNT) - (OI - OS)
When multiplied by a factor of sufficient time (T), gained by negotiating tactics (NT), Iran can ultimately win the big prize: a nuclear bomb. Although they give up the Western incentive package, that loss is offset by the fact that they don't suffer any real sanctions (thus, OI - OS). That's because once Iran gets the bomb, sanctions become problematic. Everybody is going to have to kiss their ass then, and the probable severity of any sanctions the fickle West might be able to agree upon (which were weak under the best of circumstances) would shrink in proportion to Iran's newfound leverage.

Course of action CA4 translates into what we've been watching unfold during the past several months. Iran negotiates in bad faith, makes empty promises, renegs, delays, obfuscates, then makes more empty promises, all the while maintaining their research and enrichment activity.

It's possible that a compromise settlement might be reached in the near future, but I seriously doubt it. Iran has repeatedly and unambiguously asserted its intention never to give up its enrichment program (a fact that seems to be lost on many negotiation-fixated politicians and pundits). I take the Iranians at their word, because it's not in their interest to give up the bomb. They've already done the math.
_______________

1.    Or, more accurately, Iran successfully gains the ability to domestically produce fissile material for manufacturing nuclear weapons. One can assume that creating delivery systems such as missiles and warheads are less of a problem for the Iranians. These can be purchased, or reverse-engineered by Iranian technicians. But weapons grade plutonium and/or uranium from their own factories are what they need to become a nuclear power, and this is the outcome we need to prevent.

2.    i.e. the U.S. and certain allies, to varying degrees.

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Iran's Counter-Offer?

ABC News says Iran has delivered their response to the "package of Western incentives aimed at persuading Tehran to suspend uranium enrichment." Apparently, nobody knows what's in the Iranian proposal yet.

How much you wanna bet it's a "demand for Jizya," or a tax on non-muslims. Just a hunch, but we've already had the "call to Islam," so it's time for step two in Ahmadi-Nejad and the Mullah's 3 step plan for jihad.

Update: When you read stories about today's Iranian proposal (indeed, when you read any story about the current standoff), especially by the Associated Press, I want you to notice one conspicuous omission. The AP is always careful to balance the U.S.'s accusation that Iran wants to build a nuclear weapon with a "fair and balanced" disclaimer like this:

Iran says it wants to master the technology to generate nuclear power.
Or this, from Reuters:
Iran says it will not abandon what it calls its right to enrich uranium for use in nuclear power stations.
Yet, you'll never see the mainstream press include a sentence reminding its readers that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad has repeatedly threatened to "wipe Israel off the map."

One might think that little bit of information would add some important perspective to the story.

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Piling On Passey

[I can't help but join in the huge Passey hatin' dogpile that's been going on in every corner of the blogosphere lately. She's too easy of a target.]

passey ad.jpg

Every time I looked in the mirror, I cried a little. I'd see my own awful skin blemishes and they'd remind me of how inadequate I was next to Jacqueline Mackie Paisley Passey, the world's most perfect female.

Then I imagine Terrence out with her. And I remember the cruel questions he used to ask me before he dumped me for Jacqueline Mackie Paisley Passey, the world's most perfect female.

"Why can't you be slim like Jacqueline Mackie Paisley Passey, instead of being one of the 62% of women who are fat according to Jacqueline Mackie Paisley Passey?"

"Why can't you be more attractive than 86% of the women whose pictures have been rated by visitors to the website Hot or Not, like Jacqueline Mackie Paisley Passey is?"

"Why can't you be relatively young like Jacqueline Mackie Paisley Passey, instead of being one of the 82% of American adult women who are old according to Jacqueline Mackie Paisley Passey?"

"Why can't you be smarter than 97.5% of the population, like Jacqueline Mackie Paisley Passey, the world's most smartest and perfectest female?"

"Why can't you have your financial shit together like Jacqueline Mackie Paisley Passey the world's most financially shit-togetheringest female?"

"Why can't you have a strong libido and love to have sex like Jacqueline Mackie Paisley Passey, the world's most horniest female, whose lovers never have to beg, except when they have to beg to be allowed to go to sleep?"

"Why can't you have interests that tend to be more popular with men, like science fiction, libertarianism, blogging, politics, economics, guns, gambling, scratching, picking, sniffing, and eating of one's own boogers, like Jacqueline Mackie Paisley Passey, the world's most masculine female?"

After hearing those hurtful questions for months on end from Terrence, and poor me unable to answer them, is it any wonder that he left me for her - Jacqueline Mackie Paisley Passey, the world's most all around perfectest female?

How I wished I could win Terrence back. I cried and cried and cried, boo hoo hoo. Then my best friend told me about the secret of Dr. Passey's Super Stick Treatment!

Dr. Passey's Super Stick Treatment was such a quick, easy way to attain just the tiniest fraction of the perfection that Jacqueline Mackie Paisley Passey, the world's most perfect female was born with!

And since the whole country is littered with low quality men who've been cast off by Jacqueline Mackie Paisley Passey like so many squamous cells after a nightly exfoliation of her perfectly unblemished and taut ass, I realized that all I needed to have was a tiny fraction of Jacqueline Mackie Paisley Passey's perfect perfection in order to hook me a fine low quality man!

Why, if Jacqueline Mackie Paisley Passey can boast of receiving 50 to 100 (sometimes more) responses whenever she trolls for high quality men in the personal ads of her local free newspaper, I was sure I could find at least one medium quality man and perhaps several low quality men by utilizing Dr. Passey's Super Stick Treatment!

And when I heard that Jacqueline Mackie Paisley Passey (who knows how to make money blogging, ask her how) had kicked Terrence to the curb, because he turned out to be just another low quality man (and she being quality, only dates quality), I resolved to give Dr. Passey's Super Stick Treatment a try!

What did I have to lose? I asked. And after only a week of Dr. Passey's Super Stick Treatment, what I gained was Terrence, who became mine again . . . completely!

The secret is in the special patented Super Stick, invented by Dr. Passey. The treatment only takes three minutes a day and the results can be felt instantaneously!

passey ad2.jpgAfter you wake up in the morning, all you do is take Dr. Passey's Super Stick, apply the special patented Super Stick lubricating ointment to the outside of the Super Stick, apply some more to the outer rim of your anal sphincter, and then shove the Super Stick in as far as it will go!

Walk around like that all day, and I gaurantee you will begin talking, acting, and looking just like Jacqueline Mackie Paisley Passey in no time. She's the world's most perfectest female of them all!

Try Dr. Passey's Super Stick Treatment in the privacy of your own home for a free ten day trial and watch the results on your own face, when you first administer the treatment. I think you'll agree, there's no feeling in the world like the Jacqueline Mackie Paisley Passey feeling. It's absolutely gauranteed to take your breath away!

So act quickly, supplies are limited, and so is the number of low to medium quality men. You may never hope to bag as much high quality man-flesh as Jacqueline Mackie Paisley Passey, the world's most perfectest female, but once you start using Dr. Passey's Super Stick Treatment like she does, you'll be sure to have your pick of the leftovers.

So be a hot chick . . . hop on the stick!
Dr. Passey's Super Stick, that is!

Posted by: annika at 12:56 AM | Comments (24) | Add Comment
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August 21, 2006

With Apologies To Adam Ant

I'm a friend of haile selassie
I'm a friend of mother jones
I'm a friend of jackie passey
I'm a friend of long john holmes

I'm a friend of kathy griffin
I'm a friend of clay aiken
I'm a friend of old cal ripken
I'm a friend of barbie's ken

I'm a friend of stuart smalley
I'm a friend of michael moore
I'm a friend of janey pauley
I'm a friend of daniel schorr

I'm a friend of tuning sporky
I'm a friend of ned lamont's
I'm a friend of doc kevorky
I'm a friend of the country france

I'm a friend of a friend of a friend of a friend
I'm a friend of a friend but you don't know me
I'm a friend of a friend of a friend of a friend
And if I go there tonight, can I get in free?

I'm a friend of sarah connor
I'm a friend of miles dyson
I'm a friend of the party donner
I'm a friend of andre rison

I'm a friend of molly ringwald
I'm a friend of lance armstrong
I'm a friend of what's this thing called?
I'm a friend of long duk dong

I'm a friend of frida kahlo
I'm a friend of ed asner
I'm a friend of a girl named j-lo
I'm a friend of fat bastard

I'm a friend of lindsay lohan
I'm a friend of billy gates
I'm a friend of joshie groban
I'm a friend of norman bates

I'm a friend of a friend of a friend of a friend
I'm a friend of a friend but you don't know me
I'm a friend of a friend of a friend of a friend
So can I get in tonight . . . cuz I have to pee!

I'm a friend of chelsea clinton
I'm a friend of jar jar binks
I'm a friend of hergé's tintin
I'm a friend of michael spinks

I'm a friend of debbie schlussel
I'm a friend of that crocodile
I'm a friend of simon cowell
I'm a friend of katherine heigl

I'm a friend of kathleen willey
I'm a friend of blue man crew
I'm a friend of anything silly
I'm a friend of youtube too

I'm a friend of brian boitano
I'm a friend of what's-his-face
I'm a friend of kazakhstan-o
I'm a friend of the human race

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Question #90

[part of a continuing series]

What does "turnkey" mean? I keep hearing it in radio advertisements, referring to a kind of business.

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Most Aggravating Thing On The Internets Of The Day

Be my virtual valet. Please don't steal any change out of the dash.

Warning: don't click the link if you have anything important to do today.

h/t Merri Musings

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August 20, 2006

Jeopardy With Annika, Round 25

D-Rod, Tuning Spork, and Leif are tied for the lead with $1500; Shelly and Victor have $700 each; Law Fairy has $500; Maximum Leader and KG have $300 each; Matt of Overtaken By Events and Trint have $200 each; Drake Steel, TBinSTL and SkippyStalin have $100 each.

The category is "Dicks," for $300.

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Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha

From the New York Times:

A senior Bush administration official said Thursday that he anticipated that the United Nations would move rapidly in September to impose sanctions on Iran if it refused to halt uranium enrichment . . .
Ha ha ha ha ha.
"I think we would want to move very quickly in the first part of September toward a debate in the Security Council about sanctions," he said. "They will be well deserved as this has gone on a long time."
Ha ha ha ha ha.
The resolution passed by the Security Council on July 31 demands that Iran suspend its uranium enrichment and reprocessing work by the end of August or face the possibility of sanctions. It noted the need for “further decisions,” however, before any punishments for noncompliance could be pursued.
Ha ha ha ha ha.
“The will of a lot of countries has been strengthened by watching the Iranian government trying to destabilize both Lebanon and Israel over the last 30 to 40 days,” he said.
Ha ha ha ha ha.
The Iranian government denies that it is seeking to develop nuclear weapons and says its nuclear program is peaceful, for research and energy development.
That is no laughing matter.

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My Solution To The Planetary Crisis

There's currently a big brouhaha about whether to demote Pluto from its planetary status, or whether to keep it as planet under a definition that would also include hundreds of other objects in the solar system.

I don't understand what the problem is. When I learned the alphabet back in kindergarten, I learned that there were five vowels. They were a, e, i, o, u, and sometimes y. Now if you count the vowels in that list you get six, not five. But that doesn't change the fact that there are five vowels, and y is one of them, sometimes.

So why can't we just say there are eight planets, and Pluto is one of them. We can then define "planet" with a definition that excludes Pluto, while giving Pluto some kind of honorary planet status.

We do things like this all the time. There are crayolas called "white" and "black" despite the fact that those are not real colors. And Canada is a member of the United Nations, despite the fact that it's not a real country. Also, Paris Hilton recorded a CD despite the fact that she's not a real singer.

So let's just call Pluto a planet and move on to more urgent global problems.

You're welcome. That's what I'm here for, to solve the big issues.

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August 19, 2006

My Solution To The Fifth Column Problem

The civilized world is in trouble. At a time when our reputation for getting things done around the globe is in doubt, radical Islam's reputation is gaining steam. Israel just lost its first war, at the hands of a bunch of cowards who hid behind women and children. Only a week after we stopped a major terrorist attack that might have killed over three thousand innocent people, a judge in this very country declared one of the methods used to save those lives is unconstitutional. North Korea probably has a nuclear bomb. Iran will probably get one soon (If they can't make it, what's to stop them from getting one from Kim Jong-il?). The best we can do to stop these madmen is to threaten sanctions that will never be imposed and wouldn't work even if they were.

Anything we do to stop western civilization from spiralling down the abyss is criticized and opposed tooth and nail by a fifth column in our own country. Movie stars who deny that al Qaeda did 9-11; people who call Bush the world's #1 terrorist (forget that, people call me a terrorist!); newspapers that refuse to publicize any wartime successes, while rushing to weaken our ability to defend against our enemies; a Supreme Court that bends over backwards for feces throwing barbarians who would kill untold Americans if only they were set free.

We all know what the problem is. It's Bush hatred syndrome. John Kerry says we should have one-on-one talks with North Korea simply because Bush is persuing multilateral talks. Then he criticizes the administration's foreign policy for excessive unilateralism. Bush is villified for removing Saddam Hussein, which is merely the successful culmination of a policy directive signed by President Clinton. The United States, long criticized for supporting evil dictators, is now told by enlightened leftists that the Iraqi people were better off under Saddam (whom we created anyway?!).

There is one solution I can think of, which could neutralize the anti-Americanism of today's leftist fifth column. We need to neutralize them now because the time to fight for civilization's very existence may be coming sooner than we think. And when the real fight comes, it won't be pretty. This country needs to be free to act without destructive second guessing by those who have a political axe to grind, or who outright sympathize with the enemy. A proper solution is one that will silence anti-American critics, and get everybody working on the same side.

The solution I have devised would allow George W. Bush to maintain the same foreign policy course as he has for the last six years. The only thing he would need to do to silence all his critics is to announce that he is gay. A tearful press conference with his longtime "companion" on his right and Laura on his left should do it. From that point on, anything he does will be golden, in the eyes of the left. Andrew Sullivan might even turn Republican again.

What about the so-called evangelicals, you say? First of all, Bush isn't running in '08, so he doesn't need their vote. And if they're smart, they'll understand the unseen political wink, and not be too upset about it. You know the political wink I'm talking about. It's the same one Democrats give to their own base whenever they talk about "reaching out" to "religious people."

Let's all join in a new political battle cry: "George W. Bush, come out of the closet before it's too late!"

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August 17, 2006

Annika's Jeopardy, Round 24

D-Rod and Tuning Spork are tied for the lead with $1500; Leif has $1400; Shelly and Victor are tied with $700 each; Law Fairy has $500; Maximum Leader and KG have $300 each; Matt of Overtaken By Events and Trint have $200 each; Drake Steel, TBinSTL and SkippyStalin have $100 each.

The category is "Vexatious Vexillology," for $100.

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Instalanche By Proxy

I'm gettin' Instalanched over at Six Meat Buffet. Why is it, the bigs never link to my blog? All my biggest 'lanches have been at other blogs. That's what I get for spreadin' the love!

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Freaks On A Plane

What's worse than snakes on a plane? Crazy "peace activists" on a plane!

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"Firecrotch" Explained

For those who don't follow news about the famous and semi-famous, here's the May 16, 2006, origin of Lindsay Logan's "firecrotch" nickname. It's one of the funniest things I've seen on YouTube in a long time.

So there you have it. "It's orange and it fuckin' stinks like diarrhea . . . she has freckles coming out of her vagina, and her clitoris is seven feet long."

That was spoiled rich kid Brandon Davis, who later apologized to Lindsay, saying:

What started out as a joke got completely carried away and I am horrified at the words that came out of my mouth. I consider Lindsay a friend and I hope she accepts my sincere apology for my reprehensible actions last week.
If he considers Lindsay a friend, what must he say about people he don't like? Apperently, Brandon is now in rehab for alcohol and coke. Big surprise there. When he gets out, he ought to consider stand-up comedy.

Here's another "firecrotch" related thing I found while cruising for the Davis video. It's also amusing.

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August 16, 2006

Wednesday Is Poetry Day

Sorry I didn't post a poem this morning. But today's find is worth waiting for, I swear.

Wendy Battin has quickly become one of my favorite contemporary poets. In a just world, she'd be a household name.

Can you tell that Battin once taught at MIT?


And the Two Give Birth to the Myriad of Things

--said Lao-tse, sage of waterfalls, who

knew how the courtly heart keeps trying the world.
Heart wants only the good: dreams like a glass

harmonica, ringing light's measures. Love like art
if art could grow from seed, unfolding the code

inside it. But what the mind has sundered
cannot stay long uncluttered. Innocent heart, I

think, good heart, it wants, wants just now good
hands to coax my shoulders loose. What are we

birthing, when one thing leads to another,
two swimming the body's heat together?

If you want to know how the Way makes
a world, desire. But if you want to know the Way,

want nothing. A tall order, either way, worse
in the wanting not to want, as if desire can only

redshift like the galaxies who fly from us, who never
knew us. The distant water insists on falling inward,

to earth, to hell with all the stars retreating around us. O
Lao-tse, o Hubble, o love. It all comes down

to the ocean, in time, singing more deeply
the farther it travels. Its bass line thrums

the floorboards, the walls, such slow decay I can't
feel the dust on my skin until he is sleeping.



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Flyboys Trailer

September 29th is the scheduled premier of Flyboys, based on the story of the famous Lafayette Escadrille of WWI.

Here's the trailer.

It looks pretty cool, although somewhat Pearl Harbor-ish. Still, I can't wait to see it.

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Bravo, Nicole Kidman!

NK.jpg

I always liked her.

h/t Wizbang

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Annika's Jeopardy, Round 23

D-Rod is in the lead with $1500; Leif has $1400; Tuning Spork has $1200; Shelly and Victor are tied with $700 each; Law Fairy has $500; Maximum Leader and KG have $300 each; Matt of Overtaken By Events and Trint have $200 each; Drake Steel, TBinSTL and SkippyStalin have $100 each.

And the final clue in the category "American Skankwomen," for $300, izzzz...




















...wait for it...



















...here it comes...



















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