October 26, 2004

Pop Historian Shows Astounding Lack Of Smarts

Robert Dallek is a popular Democratic leaning historian. Perhaps you've seen his toothy grin on TV. i own his thick tome on LBJ, but haven't gotten around to reading it yet. In a column for USA Today, he presents a pretty good recap of electoral history, while exhibiting an astounding lack of analytical ability.

If voters pay as close attention to a president's record as I think they do, Bush will likely sink on Nov. 2. Like Taft, Bush is vulnerable to charges of being in the pockets of corporate interests. Like Hoover, he has presided over an administration that has lost jobs. Not since the Great Depression has any other president had to run on a record of shrinking rather than expanding employment. However mindful he has been about the economic causes of his father's defeat, Bush does not seem well positioned to avoid his father's political fate.
Repeat after me Bob: "Bush will win re-election. Bush will win re-election." If you start saying it now, you may get used to the idea before it happens next week.

Dallek conveniently cherry-picks his analogies to justify his own wishful thinking, and reveals his typical liberal Democrat myopia:

Like Ford, who unrealistically denied Soviet domination of Eastern Europe, and Carter, who could not manage to rescue American hostages from Tehran or control rising oil prices, Bush's blundering policy in Iraq, alienation of so many other governments and peoples around the globe, and uncertain formula for dealing with terrorists raise doubts about his stewardship of foreign policy, which can work to deny him a second term.
Comparing Bush to Ford or Carter is simply bad historical analysis. Ford lost because of his predecessor, not because of anything he said at the debate. And Carter ran this country's economy into the ground and made the US an international laughing stock. Like it or not, while the US may have lost a few friends around the world under Bush, no one can say we're not respected in a Machiavellian sense. That's just fine with me, and i suspect it's fine with the majority of American voters too.

i also thought it was funny how Dallek ended his column by hedging his historical bet, with this bit of prospective sour-grapes:

That a president with so questionable a record is still running a competitive race is a little startling. If Bush wins the election, it would seem to represent the triumph of spin politics.
Funny, i might say the same thing if Kerry wins. But since Kerry is not going to win, i won't have to, lol.

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Mad About Bush

[i thought Helen Hunt got killed at the Pyongyang Peace Conference. Apparently not.]

What really pisses me off about the new Helen Hunt political TV spot is the arrogant assumption that all single women are lock-step liberals. i can tell you, we are not.

However, i do agree that "We can make the difference. We are the difference." In fact, i think the unholy alliance of media-entertainment-academic elites may be surprised at the difference we make, when women voters help deliver the election to George W. Bush next week. Perhaps very surprised.

While i still think that overall, Kerry will win a majority of the female vote, i don't think it will be by the Clintonian margins Democrats took for granted in the 90's. The Christian Science Monitor noted in September:

Democrats have long held an edge among women voters, a slight majority of the electorate, and grown to count on them to offset the Republicans' persistent advantage among men. Traditionally, women have given extra care to issues that favor Democrats, such as healthcare, education, and Social Security. Now, the war on terror - and the way Bush is playing it - appears to have shifted that calculation somewhat.

'Bush is trying to reassure them on healthcare and education, saying those things are important, but really it's security,' says Democratic pollster Celinda Lake. 'Women give him a 23-point advantage on security, and that's what's really driving their vote.'

Time Magazine originally had the female vote split evenly before the first debate, then gave Kerry a dubious 14 point post debate bounce among women. A swing like that doesn't seem credible to me, and i'm inclined to believe that the final result will show a pretty striking gain for the GOP among women voters. If anyone has more up-to-date polling info, feel free to let me know in the comments.

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October 25, 2004

Monday Night Football Pick

As a Raider fan (which is tough to be this year), i hate having to pick Denver for tonight's Broncos vs. Bengals game. i'm looking for a way to justify not doing it.

The Broncos are playing in Cincinnati, and are favored by seven points on the road. They have a five and one record, as opposed to the Bengals' one and four record. Jake Plummer's been decent, with ten touchdowns and an 87.4 rating.

Contrast that with Carson Palmer's stats: four TDs against eight interceptions, with a 59.6 rating. He sucks. But you should already know that, since he went to USC.

So, basically, there is no good reason for me to pick the Bengals tonight. But i will anyway, and hope that Denver wins by less than seven points.

Update: Cincinnati actually created the ilusion of a good team tonight, i was surprised. With tonight's Bengals win, i improved my record to 3 and 3 on the year. (Last week was my bye week, due to the computer glich.)

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October 24, 2004

Half-Wit, That's All I Ever Heard...
Half-Wit, How I Love To Hate The Word

cher3.jpg

From Drudge:

Only a couple hundred came out to see Cher Friday night at Miami Beach's CROBAR disco, but that did not stop the legendary diva from issuing an election warning against Republican control.

. . .

Cher warned moveon.org clubgoers to fight Bush, before 'it's too late':

'All the gay guys, all my friends, all my gay friends, you guys you have got to vote, alright? Because it would only be a matter of time before you guys would be so screwed, I cannot tell you. Because, you know, the people, like, in the very right wing of this party, of these Republicans, the very very right wing, the Jerry Falwell element, if they get any more power, you guys are going to be living in some state by yourselves. So, I hate scare tactics, but I really believe that that's true.'

Actually i'm a fan of Cher's, but that's just fucking stupid. She really believes that that's true?

i never thought i'd hear a celebrity say something more idiotic than Cameroon Diaz telling Ofrah Winfrey's audience "If you think that rape should be legal, then don't vote," but Cher's comment comes pretty close.

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October 23, 2004

Shameless Pandering

Here's the very first paragraph you will find on the homepage of the official Kerry website today, which i found insulting:

John Kerry will strengthen and expand the middle class and help working women by strengthening the economy. In todayÂ’s economy, too many hard-working women are falling further and further behind. Instead of offering help, George Bush has turned his back, broken his promises and in some cases, taken no action at all.
This is one reason why Democrats make me queasy. It's never about Americans. It's always about classifications.

Wouldn't strengthening the economy help all Americans, not just "working women?" And wouldn't strengthening the economy help non-working women too? You know, the kind Kerry's wife insulted the other day?

This type of pandering, supposedly directed at me, is a complete turn off. Someone in the campaign reads a poll that says Kerry needs more points from the "working women" category, and so they take out their economy template and plug the words "working women" into it.

i'm sorry, but i don't buy it. i know that a Kerry administration would lose jobs by increasing the minimum wage and increasing taxes on the entrepreneurial class that creates jobs. And i plan to be looking for a job in about three years, just when the effects of a Kerry economic downturn will take effect.

So i don't appreciate the shameless pandering, as if women were all idiots who got all goose pimply, saying: "Oooh Kerry just mentioned our interest group! Isn't he the dreamiest?"

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Krauthammer Piece

Charles Krauthammer's latest op-ed contains this thought provoking paragraph:

John Kerry says he wants to 'rejoin the community of nations.' There is no issue on which the United States more consistently fails the global test of international consensus than Israel. In July, the U.N. General Assembly declared Israel's defensive fence illegal by a vote of 150 to 6. In defending Israel, America stood almost alone.
What are Kerry's plans regarding American support for Israel? Krauthammer has a theory, and it's not very comforting.

Hat tip to commenter Shelly.

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October 22, 2004

Annika With The Tongue

Then there's this:

'My friends always said I had an incredibly long tongue - I could make lots of money with it one day,' said Annika.
*coughs*
'I'm just proud that now people everywhere can read about me and my tongue,' she said.
Well, yah. That goes without saying.
'On my first day at school I had to stick my tongue out for everyone.'
But it was worth it, i guess.

Just so you know, different Annika . . .

Via You're Ugly.

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Good Company

Sarah Bernhardt: actress, poet, playwright
Brian Boitano: athlete
Catherine Deneuve: beauty
Joan Fontaine: "Rebecca"
Annette Funicello: Mouseketeer
Jeff Goldblum: fly
Curly Howard: Comedian with a capital C
Alan Ladd, Jr.: mogul
Timothy Leary: shaman
Franz Liszt, virtuoso: maestro
Christopher Lloyd: time traveller, cab driver, klingon
Tony Pierce: celebrity blogger, and deservedly so
Tony Roberts: Woody Allen foil
Shaggy: Jamaican, reggae singer, USMC, Desert Storm veteran
N.C. Wyeth: artist, illustrator

All were born on this date.

Just my way of saying Happy Birthday, Tony!

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October 20, 2004

Two Twins Separated At Birth? Or One Shapeshifter?

jhenry.jpg

Red Sox owner John Henry . . .

odo.jpg

. . . and Odo from Deep Space Nine.

It's eerie.

Update: i'm not the only one who's quick with the Sox-Sci-Fi gag.

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Time Out For Cynicism

i'd like to take time out from my ongoing coverage of Election-Fest 2004 to submit the following Statement of Undisputed Facts.

If George W. Bush wins, the left will spend the next four years complaining, they will remain as obstructionist as ever, and they will blame everything on Bush.

If John Kerry wins, the left will spend the next four years complaining, they will remain as obstructionist as ever, and they will blame everything on the Republican congress.

We now return you to our regularly scheduled election coverage.

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Wednesday Is Poetry Day

The following poem, by beat poet Gary Snyder, was posted on the inside of a bus i rode this weekend. (The whole "Poetry in Motion" idea is the best thing to happen to public transportation since Wells Fargo invented the stage coach, in my opinion.) i liked it so much, i decided to make it this week's selection:


Why Log Truck Drivers Rise
Earlier Than Students Of Zen

In the high seat, before-dawn dark,
Polished hubs gleam
And the shiny diesel stack
Warms and flutters
Up the Tyler Road grade
To the logging on Poorman creek.
Thirty miles of dust.

There is no other life.


This poem was one of those discoveries where i found myself saying "Yesss, that's it! That's how i want to do it."

It's short, it's not cryptic, and it takes me someplace new in the space of a few lines.

i love the way the little details create a scene that's instantly recognizable, though not overly familiar. Did you notice how the visual picture of the the fluttering diesel stack makes you hear the growl of the truck's engine, without the poet even mentioning the sound?

Writing about poetry is like describing wine. It's so hard to find the right words and the end result always seems meaningless, compared to the original.

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Gavin Newsom: Sex Symbol

Not much to add to this story. It's pretty freakin' funny as is:

Kimberly Guilfoyle Newsom took the stage at Thursday night's big Empire State Pride Agenda fund-raiser.

Guilfoyle Newsom was a last-minute sub for her husband at the gay rights event, which drew 1,100 guests. By all accounts, Guilfoyle Newsom -- who lives in New York and is a regular on Court TV -- gave an inspired speech.

But what really brought the house down was when she started talking about her hubby.

'I know that many of you wanted to see my husband and some of you had questions out there,' Guilfoyle Newsom said.

'Is he hot? Yeah.

'Is he hung? Yeah.

'Is he (she waved her hand to suggest bisexual)? Not unless you can give a better (she mimicked eating a banana) than me,' Guilfoyle Newsom said.

Clinton and Starr, what hast thou wrought?

From SFGate.

Update: Here, Bill and Gavin seem to disagree on what the definition of "hung" is.

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October 19, 2004

Back Online

Things i've learned after not blogging for over a week:

  • The electromagnetic pulse weapon is real.

  • The EMP weapon is dangerous.

  • It must not be allowed to fall into the wrong hands.
(Okay, there is no EMP device. i just fucked up somehow. Don't even ask.)

After not blogging for over a week, i was also surprised to find that:

  • My head did not explode.

  • The sun still came up in the morning.

  • The Red Sox still found a way to blow it in the post-season.
Oops, maybe my lack of blogging did have a tiny effect on the space-time continuum.

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October 11, 2004

The Fantasy Footballer's Dilemma

"Yaaah, go Chris Brown!"

seconds later:

"Yaaah, c'mon Favre!"

i am the John Kerry of football fans.

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Football Update

Snooze Button Dreams is killing me in Fantasy Football this week. (Good luck on the interview, Jim.) The Raiders sucked again on Sunday. And Saturday, Cal outplayed USC and still lost. Very depressing.

Hey, at least the Niners beat the lowly Cardinals.

Regarding Monday Night Football, i need Chris Brown of the Titans to have a stellar game for my fantasy team. But i actually think that Green Bay will win this one. Green Bay is favored by three points and they're at home.

This is actually a pretty tough game to pick (i'm 2 and 2 on the year with my predictions). Both teams' quarterbacks are hurting, but how can you bet against a Favre led team on Monday Night? Although i also read that Green Bay's center is out, and the replacement is not as good. But i don't know if that's just bad or really bad. (i actually didn't even know what a nosetackle was until Casca told me. i thought nose tackle was when you hung a snap swivel off your nostril piercing.*)

The hardest question for me is, will the Packers cover the spread? i have a sense that the game might be close, but i know that as soon as i say the Packers won't cover, they will. That just seems to be my luck lately. So i'll pick the Packers minus three points.

Update: Chris Brown: 148 yards + 2 TDs. Will it be enough to overtake Snooze Button Dreams though? i'll find out tomorrow. Re: my MNF predictions this year, i don't want to talk about it.


* Ba-dum-bump. That's a little fishing humor for y'all.

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October 09, 2004

Beautiful Asymmetry

These two quotes from John Kerry at last night's debate are so beautiful, all i can do is sit back and admire them.

Quote 1:

He's trying to attack me. He wants you to believe that I can't be president. And he's trying to make you believe it because he wants you to think I change my mind. Well, let me tell you straight up: I've never changed my mind about Iraq. I do believe Saddam Hussein was a threat. I always believed he was a threat. Believed it in 1998 when Clinton was president. I wanted to give Clinton the power to use force if necessary.
Quote 2:
I don't think you can just rely on U.N. sanctions [to contain Iran], Randee. But you're absolutely correct, it is a threat, it's a huge threat. And what's interesting is, it's a threat that has grown while the president has been preoccupied with Iraq, where there wasn't a threat.
Kinda takes your breath away don't it?

Via Paul at Wizbang.

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October 08, 2004

Presidential Debate Notes 2.0

i wanna do this without listening to any of the TV pundits, so my opinion won't be tainted. Which means that i may end up modifying my opinions later after i've taken in the insights of people wiser than i am. Plus, we finished another couple of bottles of that chianti, and i'm on my second glass of Port. So waaatchout!

more...

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Style Fucking Matters
(my open letter to the President)

Dear President Bush,

Have you seen the latest Electoral College map? i took the liberty of turning it into a gif file so i could highlight some important areas of concern for me, and i hope, for you too.

more...

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October 07, 2004

Pre-Apprentice Dinner Menu

i cooked tonight, and there were two requirements: be done in time to watch The Apprentice, and include the four major food groups. Those food groups being 1) meat, 2) bread, 3) vegetables and 4) alcohol. My roommates don't get enough veggies.

dinner.jpg

i accomplished this task with the following menu:

  • meat stuffed tortellini with my own sauce (leftover)

  • Brussels sprouts with mustard-horseradish cream sauce (non-fat)

  • crusty romano cheese sourdough rolls

  • $5 chianti
Oh sure, at first my roommates turned up their nose at the sight of the Brussels sprouts. But afterwards all three of them pronounced my side dish to be: "okay," which i will translate as a high compliment.

The $5 bottle of chianti was indeed a hit, though.

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October 06, 2004

Wednesday Is Poetry Day

How different is this war we are fighting now. Compared to wars of the distant past.

Thomas Hardy (1840-192 writes about a once universal irony among soldiers:


      'Had he and I but met
      By some old ancient inn,
We should have sat us down to wet
      Right many a nipperkin!

      'But ranged as infantry,
      And staring face to face,
I shot at him as he at me,
      And killed him in his place.

      'I shot him dead because --
      Because he was my foe,
Just so: my foe of course he was;
      That's clear enough; although

      'He thought he'd 'list, perhaps,
      Off-hand like -- just as I --
Was out of work -- had sold his traps --
      No other reason why.

      'Yes; quaint and curious war is!
      You shoot a fellow down
You'd treat if met where any bar is,
      Or help to half-a-crown.'

In this current war of ours, i doubt you'd find many on our side who'd share Hardy's poignant sentiment.

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